Rays vs Brewers Prop Picks: World Series Game 2

After a riveting Game 1 on Friday night, the Tampa Bay Rays look to bounce back against the Milwaukee Brewers this evening, turning to their first baseman Jonathan Aranda to get the bats going.

Here are my favorite Rays vs. Brewers prop picks and MLB picks for today's matchup.

Best Rays vs Brewers props

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Pick	Probability
Jonathan Aranda Over 0.5 hits	62%
Logan Henderson Over 3.5 hits allowed	59%
Logan Henderson Over 1.5 earned runs	47%

Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account

Prop pick #1: Jonathan Aranda Over 0.5 hits 

Tampa Bay Rays first baseman Jonathan Aranda enters Saturday with the highest matchup rating on Batters-Box, covering 100% of Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Logan Henderson's pitch mix.

Across 70 elite ratings over the last three seasons, Aranda has recorded a hit 70% of the time. That rate remains just as strong on the road at 70%.

In his last 30 plate appearances this postseason, the big fella owns a .593 SLG, .893 OPS, and .371 ISO, while generating a hard-hit rate above 57%.

In a small sample of 19 left-handed hitters faced this postseason, Henderson has allowed just a 33% ground-ball rate, while those hitters own a .346 xBA and .546 xSLG.

Given Aranda's consistency all season, this price is well worth the juice. Take this up to 63%.

If you're not in the juice-paying business, consider his hits, runs, and RBIs prop over 1.5 at plus money. He clears that mark nearly 63% of the time when rated elite.

Prop pick #2: Logan Henderson Over 3.5 hits allowed 

Yes, another juicy prop, but hear me out. The Rays played a solid Game 1 despite the loss. They recorded seven hits last night but left runners on base.

Getting two guys on in the first inning, only to end the frame with a double play, was tough.

However, if the Rays can record four hits against Jacob Misiorowski, I think they can get to Logan Henderson tonight.

Through nine innings this postseason, the right-hander has a 4.81 xERA and 5.15 xFIP, while opposing hitters have posted a .355 xBA and .491 xSLG.

The Rays have never been a team with eye-popping offensive numbers, but they get the job done by doing the little things, including putting the ball in play.

They've posted a 77.7% contact rate this postseason.

With Henderson's strikeout rate barely higher than his walk rate, the Rays should put the ball in play plenty tonight.

Take this up to 60%.

Bonus Bet: Henderson’s walk prop is sitting at 0.5, with a 63% hit rate. If you’re in the juice-paying business, pay it. If not, it's a great parlay piece. Henderson has walked at least two batters in both of his starts this postseason.

Prop pick #3: Logan Henderson Over 1.5 earned runs 

There we go! No juice to pay here! Henderson giving up two runs is one of my favorite looks on the board today. Obviously, if everything above hits, the Rays are likely scoring runs.

After how well the Rays played last night against the Brewers' ace, they now face a guy who has struggled to find the zone and has allowed 2+ runs in both of his postseason starts.

The Rays are in a great spot to bounce back in Game 2.

Playable up to 50%. If you can bet the Rays' first-five team total, take that over this prop in case of an error.

Pages related to this topic