The Milwaukee Brewers carry a 1-0 World Series lead into today's Game 2 at American Family Field (8 p.m. ET, FOX).
My Rays vs Brewers home run predictions go hunting for the first long ball of the series after Friday's 3-2 Milwaukee win.
Junior Caminero and Jonathan Aranda headline the card for the Tampa Bay Rays, with Brice Turang as the long shot in my Rays vs. Brewers predictions and MLB picks.
Best Rays vs Brewers home run picks
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Jonathan Aranda 
Long shot: Brice Turang 
Rays home run pick: Jonathan Aranda
Play to 21%.
Jonathan Aranda is the best price play because Logan Henderson's home-run damage has come almost entirely against left-handed hitters. Lefties accounted for 10 of the 14 homers he surrendered in the regular season.
Aranda hit 19 of his 22 home runs against right-handed pitching, slugging .471 in the split.
The pitch mix works for him too. Aranda slugged .462 against changeups and .509 against cutters, two offerings that make up about half of what Henderson throws.
He also opened the series 3-for-3 with a walk, proving the swing is in rhythm against the Milwaukee Brewers' pitching.
Colby Marchio's Rays vs. Brewers props also see Aranda making an impact.
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Brewers home run pick: Junior Caminero
Play to 20%.
Junior Caminero hit 42 home runs during the regular season, and Henderson hands him a fastball to attack. The rookie throws his four-seamer roughly 46% of the time, and Caminero slugged .641 with a 62.2% hard-hit rate against four-seamers this year.
Five of the 14 home runs Henderson allowed in the regular season came on that four-seamer.
Caminero showed Friday that Milwaukee's velocity does not slow him down, ripping a 112.7 mph double off a 101.5 mph Jacob Misiorowski fastball. He walks into Game 2 squaring up the hardest stuff on either staff.
Long-shot home run pick: Brice Turang
Play up to 14%.
Brice Turang is my long shot because I like the pitch-type matchup against Tampa Bay Rays starter Drew Rasmussen. Rasmussen gave up 10 home runs to left-handed hitters this season against four to righties.
The Milwaukee second baseman finished with 21 home runs, 18 of them against right-handed pitching, while slugging .510 with a .902 OPS in that split.
Turang also slugged .564 against sinkers and .737 against cutters, and those two pitches make up more than half of Rasmussen's arsenal.
He didn’t record any hits in Game 1, but drew two walks. I expect him to be selective at the plate and look for one pitch to crush.
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Rays vs Brewers home run combo
My three-leg combo attacks Henderson two different ways and adds a Milwaukee bat built for Rasmussen's pitch mix.
Caminero is the power anchor, bringing 42-homer production and elite numbers against four-seamers. Aranda owns the better platoon edge, since Henderson's home run trouble comes against left-handed hitters.
Turang is the long-shot leg, with big slugging numbers against the sinker and cutter Rasmussen leans on.
Spreading the legs across both pitching staffs keeps the ticket alive no matter which starter gets hit first.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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