Another eventful slate in the Majors means lots of opportunity for long balls in my MLB player props home run analysis.
Today's selections include Shohei Ohtani, CJ Abrams, and Dominic Canzone.
Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, August 1.
MLB home run props for today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Dominic Canzone |
+388 |
 CJ Abrams |
+325 |
 Shohei Ohtani |
+250 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +9428 |
Home run prediction: Dominic Canzone (+388)
Dominic Canzone has been a consistent outlet for power in the Seattle Mariners lineup lately. The slugger has gone deep three times in his last seven contests, posting a .444 ISO.
Over the last week, he's squaring up everything, posting a 57.1% hard-hit rate and 19% barrel rate. Tonight's matchup against Connor Prielipp is an intriguing one for his hot bat. The Minnesota Twins starter has allowed 1.69 HR/9 over his last two starts while allowing a 52% hard-hit rate.
Canzone also has a very respectable .351 ISO against left-handed pitchers.
I'll play this pick down to +400.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FS1
Home run prediction: CJ Abrams (+325)
CJ Abrams is a regular in my home run props, but there's good reason for it. The Washington Nationals star continues to rake. He owns a .520 ISO over his last seven games, going deep four times during that span.
Abrams has an average launch angle of 26.1 degrees over his last 31 plate appearances and a 15.8% barrel rate. He'll face Reynaldo Lopez tonight, who has given up 1.80 HR/9 over his previous two starts while allowing a 50% fly ball rate during that span.
Lopez is prone to loud contact in the air, and Abrams is consistently getting lift under the baseball.
I'll play this pick down to +300.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BravesVision, Nats.TV
Home run prediction: Shohei Ohtani (+250)
Shohei Ohtani is always a threat to leave the yard when he steps up to the plate, and he is showcasing his power right now. The two-way superstar has a .476 ISO in the last week, with two bombs in his previous five outings.
It's rare for him to not be squaring up the baseball lately. He has a 62.5% hard-hit rate and 18.8% barrel rate in the last week, and tonight's matchup against Payton Tolle screams value. Ohtani has actually hit lefties well, posting a .291 ISO.
Tolle is having trouble with the long ball. He's allowed 2.45 HR/9 over his previous two appearances. One mistake could easily be punished by one of the most feared hitters in the Majors.
I'll play this pick down to +200.
- Time: 9:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NESN, SportsNet LA
- HR picks: 17-83, -3.54 units
Best home run combo for August 1
| CJ Abrams |
Trade Now +9428 |
| Dominic Canzone |
|
| Shohei Ohtani |
Want more baseball parlays? Check out our MLB parlay picks page!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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