Let's kick off this Monday off with three of my favorite home run props and predictions for today's MLB slate.
Find out why I am backing Jackson Merrill and Kody Clemens.
Here are my favorite MLB picks for Monday, Sept. 7.
MLB home run props for today
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Jackson Merrill
Kody Clemens
Home run prediction: Jackson Merrill (18%)
A guy I don’t think I have laid coin on since he was a rookie, but San Diego Padres young star Jackson Merrill is in a great spot this evening against Washington Nationals right-hander Jake Irvin.
Merrill looks ice-cold on the surface, but his underlying metrics suggest he is ready to explode. He owns a .750 xSLG while generating a near-70% hard-hit rate and a near-20% barrel rate over his last 10 games.
Against the last 60 left-handed hitters he has faced, Irvin is allowing nearly 60% hard hit and 53.8% elevation rate, while those hitters have posted a .324 xBA and .475 xSLG
I’m taking a shot on Merrill tonight.
- Time: 5:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SDPA, NATS
Home run prediction: Kody Clemens (17%)
That is right, we are backing The Rocket's son to leave the yard this afternoon. Minnesota Twins second baseman Kody Clemens finds himself in a boom spot against Detroit Tigers right-hander Troy Melton, who has struggled in his last three starts. Melton has a 5.71 xERA, allowing a 44%+ hard-hit rate and nearly 12% barrel rate during that stretch.
Over his last 10 games, Clemens has a .515 SLG, .710 xSLG and .273 ISO, while producing a 53.6% hard-hit rate and 14.3% barrel rate. The 30-year-old enters with an elite rating on Batters-Box, covering 95.8% of Melton's pitches.
This season, Clemens has homered in 30% of his 30 elite-rating games. With a sample that big, those are trends you can trust.
- Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: DSN, MNNT
- HR picks: 121-414, +25.7 units
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