Milwaukee Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski is the focal point of our Rays vs. Brewers expert picks for Game 1 of the World Series tonight.
Will he handle his business vs. the Tampa Bay Rays, or will he crumble under the bright lights? Read our Rays vs. Brewers predictions for Friday, Oct. 23 to find out.
Rays vs Brewers expert picks for Game 1
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: Under 6.5 |
49% |
 Jon Metler: Rays ML |
38% |
 Neil Parker: Jacob Misiorowski Over 15.5 outs |
54% |
 Todd Cordell: Brewers ML |
61% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Under 6.5
Price: 49¢ at Polymarket
This is trading at 49%, and I have it priced at 55%.
The Rays' starting rotation has posted a 1.98 ERA so far in the playoffs, a Top-10 postseason mark since 1969.
Nick Martinez has allowed just three runs over nine innings in two starts, and the rested Rays bullpen should have an advantage earlier in the series before the Brewers get more looks at its arms.
Jacob Misiorowski will do what he does, and even if he doesn't record 15 outs, he'll hand things over to Milwaukee's biggest edge: its bullpen. Through 40+ postseason innings, the Brewers' pen is pitching to a 1.33 ERA.
Jon Metler's expert pick: Rays moneyline
Price: 38¢ at Polymarket
The Tampa Bay Rays are trading at 38% to win Game 1 of the World Series, and I'll hit the button at that price, as I make them closer to 40%.
It's a small edge, but that's typical for a World Series matchup that will attract plenty of attention from traders. Jacob Misiorowski hasn't pitched past the fifth inning in either of his last two starts, not because he's been hit hard, but because he's reached the 90-pitch mark.
The Rays are well suited to grind out at-bats, work the count, and avoid being intimidated by Misiorowski's consistent 100-plus mph heat.
Neil Parker's expert pick: Jacob Misiorowski Over 15.5 outs
Price: 54¢ at Polymarket
Brewers manager Pat Murphy was incredibly cautious with Jacob Misiorowski’s workload down the stretch and to this point of the postseason, and the Milwaukee ace will pitch Game 1 on 11 days of rest.
There’s no reason to rein him in now, and Misiorowski has held opposing batters to a pedestrian .248 wOBA and .052 ISO across 20 1/3 postseason innings. He limited hitters to a league-low .226 xwOBA during the regular season, too.
I’d recommend Misiorowski to record 16 or more outs up to 57%.
Todd Cordell's expert pick: Brewers moneyline
Price: 61¢ at Polymarket
I like the Milwaukee Brewers to take the series opener up to 63%.
The Tampa Bay Rays simply weren't the same team on the road during the regular season, posting a 43-38 record — a far cry from their 55-26 mark at home.
Their road numbers leave a lot to be desired in the playoffs, too. The sample is much smaller, of course, but they have managed just a .228 xwOBA vs. righties.
That’s not ideal heading into a matchup with the electric Jacob Misiorowski, who has allowed two runs or fewer in 16 of 18 home starts this season.
How to watch Rays vs Brewers Game 1
| Location | American Family Field, Milwaukee, Wis. |
| Date | Friday, Oct. 23, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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