The Milwaukee Brewers (63% favorites) posted a 24-8 record in Jacob Misiorowski starts this season, and my Rays vs. Brewers prediction is he’ll get enough run support to win tonight's Game 1 (8 p.m. ET, FOX).
Read more of my MLB picks for this Oct. 23 matchup below, and check out our 2026 World Series betting preview for the full series outlook.
Rays vs Brewers prediction: Brewers moneyline
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
I like the Milwaukee Brewers to take the series opener up to 63%.
The Tampa Bay Rays simply weren’t the same team on the road during the regular season, posting a 43-38 record — a far cry from their 55-26 mark at home.
Their road numbers leave a lot to be desired in the playoffs, too. The sample is much smaller, of course, but they have managed just a .228 xwOBA vs. righties.
That’s not ideal heading into a matchup with the electric Jacob Misiorowski, who has allowed two runs or fewer in 16 of 18 home starts this season.
Who will win Rays vs Brewers?
Brewers: The Brewers led the league in scoring at home this season. It’ll be tough for the Rays to keep up against Jacob Misiorowski and his 99th percentile ranking in xBA and xERA.
More World Series predictions, picks and odds
- World Series odds 2026: the latest series prices for the Rays and Brewers
- World Series MVP odds 2026: Contreras and Chourio lead a Brewers-heavy board
- Rays vs. Brewers Game 1 best bets and expert picks: four plays from the Covers staff
- Rays vs. Brewers prop picks for World Series Game 1: our best player props for tonight
- Rays vs. Brewers home run predictions and combo: our World Series Game 1 home run picks
- 2026 World Series betting preview: series predictions, picks, odds and Misiorowski MVP odds
- MLB picks today: free expert and computer picks for every game
TOP PICK
Rays vs Brewers player prop: Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
There’s hot, and there’s Chourio at home. He has cleared 1.5 H+R+RBI in 15 of his last 17 games in Milwaukee, averaging 3.7 H+R+RBI during that stretch.
Tampa Bay is starting right-hander Nick Martinez (15-6, 3.10 ERA) in Game 1 rather than Drew Rasmussen, and Chourio can get to him.
Chourio consistently hits the ball hard, and his .291 xBA vs. righties in the playoffs suggests results will follow. He’s also a co-favorite for the Willie Mays Award in our World Series MVP odds.
COVERS INTEL: Chourio ranks in the 86th percentile in Batting Run Value and 88th percentile in Sprint Speed, making him a threat not only with the bat in his hands but on the basepaths.
Rays vs Brewers combo
I’m combining the Brewers on the moneyline with Jackson Chourio and Junior Caminero to record hits.
I’ve isolated these stars partly because they can hit pitchers of both handedness effectively. Some players will be schemed out of the game, so to speak, with certain bullpen moves. That’s not a concern for either of them.
It helps that Chourio owns a .314 xBA in the playoffs, and Caminero has posted a 15% barrel rate in the postseason to date. I want to follow the hard contact.
Rays vs Brewers combo
- Brewers moneyline
- Jackson Chourio Over 0.5 hits
- Junior Caminero Over 0.5 hits
Rays vs Brewers home run prediction: Jackson Chourio
Chourio is my top choice to leave the ballpark. He didn’t homer against a righty during Milwaukee’s run to the World Series but it’s not due to a lack of quality contact.
He leads all players in this series with 12 hard hit balls vs. right-handed pitching, and he sits near the top of the leaderboard with a .456 xSLG.
He also hits southpaws very well, which makes it almost impossible to gameplan around him.
- Top picks: 129-106, -2.45 units
- O/U picks: 121-106-6, +0.35 units
Rays vs Brewers weather
This game will be played indoors.
Rays vs Brewers odds
- Moneyline: Rays 38% | Brewers 63%
- Run line: Rays +1.5 (63%) | Brewers -1.5 (38%)
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (47%) | Under 6.5 (54%)
Looking at the bigger picture? Check the latest World Series odds and World Series MVP odds.
Rays vs Brewers trend
Milwaukee posted a league-best 45-30 record against teams over .500 during the regular season. See more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Brewers.
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How to watch Rays vs Brewers and game info
| Location | American Family Field, Milwaukee, Wis. |
| Date | Friday, Oct. 23, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Rays starting pitcher | Nick Martinez (15-6, 3.10 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Jacob Misiorowski (16-5, 1.80 ERA) |
Rays vs Brewers latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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