The 2026 Fall Classic is on, with the Tampa Bay Rays and Milwaukee Brewers set for first pitch at 8 p.m. ET tonight (Friday, Oct. 23) at American Family Field, and here are a trio of Rays vs. Brewers prop picks to cover you for the World Series opener.
My favorite Rays vs. Brewers predictions and MLB picks for Game 1 are headlined by Tampa Bay starter Nick Martinez and Milwaukee ace Jacob Misiorowski.
Best Rays vs Brewers props
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Nick Martinez Under 14.5 outs |
56% |
 Jacob Misiorowski Over 15.5 outs |
54% |
| Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI |
54% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket.
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Prop pick #1: Nick Martinez Under 14.5 outs
The Milwaukee Brewers finished the regular season with the highest on-base percentage and second-highest wOBA against right-handed pitchers, so I’m anticipating Tampa Bay Rays righty Nick Martinez to have trouble going deep into Game 1.
Martinez pitched to contact during the regular season with a career-low 15.1% strikeout rate and 3.6% walk rate, while opposing hitters made contact on 90.7% of his pitches in the strike zone. His postseason 4.33 xERA and 4.11 xFIP are also well above his 3.00 ERA across nine innings, and he’s recorded a 4.28 xERA and 4.14 xFIP across 12 career appearances (seven starts) against the Brewers.
With the familiarity the Milwaukee lineup has against Martinez, I recommend this prop up to 59%.
For the bigger picture on how the Rays stack up, check the latest World Series odds.
Prop pick #2: Jacob Misiorowski Over 15.5 outs
Brewers manager Pat Murphy was incredibly cautious with Jacob Misiorowski’s workload down the stretch and to this point of the postseason, and the Milwaukee ace will pitch Game 1 on 11 days of rest.
There’s no reason to rein him in now, and Misiorowski has held opposing batters to a pedestrian .248 wOBA and .052 ISO across 20 1/3 postseason innings. He limited hitters to a league-low .226 xwOBA during the regular season, too.
I’d recommend Misiorowski to record 16 or more outs up to 57%.
Not everyone on our staff is on board — Josh Inglis and Jon Metler lean the other way in our Rays vs. Brewers Game 1 expert picks.
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Prop pick #3: Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Milwaukee star Jackson Chourio put up six hits, two runs, and seven RBI across eight postseason games despite hitting just .171 with a .239 wOBA.
Still, his underlying .389 xwOBA and .271 xISO have my attention. Furthermore, Chourio has posted respective .343 and .269 marks against Martinez.
This Chourio play is recommended up to 58%.
Chourio is also a co-favorite for the Willie Mays Award in our World Series MVP odds, and you can find more ways to back the Brewers’ leadoff man in our Rays vs. Brewers home run predictions.
- Prop picks: 15-9, +8.9 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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