Tonight's World Series opener presents a clear power contrast between Jacob Misiorowski’s triple-digit fastball and Nick Martinez’s contact-heavy arsenal.
Our Rays vs. Brewers home run predictions make Jake Bauers the top play, with Junior Caminero and Garrett Mitchell rounding out our Rays vs. Brewers predictions.
Check out our latest MLB picks for more postseason betting analysis.
Best Rays vs Brewers home run picks
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Junior Caminero |
22% |
 Jake Bauers |
16% |
| Long shot: Garrett Mitchell |
10% |
| 💲Junior Caminero + Jake Bauers | 33.65x |
Rays home run pick: Junior Caminero
Jacob Misiorowski’s four-seamer is one of baseball’s least inviting pitches, but it will account for nearly two-thirds of this matchup and gives Junior Caminero a defined hunting zone.
The third baseman generated a .652 xSLG and 62.2% hard-hit rate against four-seamers this season, with a 116.9-mph max exit velocity showing he does not need to cheat for triple digits.
His 13.1% barrel rate nearly doubled the MLB average, and batting third should secure a first-inning look while maximizing his path to four plate appearances. This is strength-on-strength, and Caminero has the bat speed and impact contact to beat Misiorowski’s best pitch.
Brewers home run pick: Jake Bauers
Nick Martinez’s plan against left-handed hitters maps directly to Jake Bauers’ strengths. He throws changeups 29% of the time in that split, followed by sinkers at 26% and cutters at 22%. Bauers produced a .500 xSLG against changeups, with a .494 mark against sinkers and a .465 mark against cutters.
Martinez also finished with a 3.98 xERA, nearly a full run above his 3.10 ERA, while striking out only 15.1% of hitters. Bauers should get hittable balls in play rather than losing plate appearances to overpowering stuff.
His 92.1-mph average exit velocity, 51.9% hard-hit rate, and 14% barrel rate make him the best blend of price, pitch fit, and lineup position on the board.
Long-shot home run pick: Garrett Mitchell
Garrett Mitchell is not only one of my long-shot picks to homer tonight, but also a dark-horse play in the World Series MVP odds.
Mitchell’s path runs through Martinez’s cutter. The Tampa Bay right-hander throws it 22% of the time to left-handed hitters, and opponents generated a .403 xSLG against it. Mitchell did substantially more damage to that pitch, posting a .797 xSLG, .839 SLG, and 59.1% hard-hit rate against cutters this season.
Hitting sixth lowers his plate-appearance ceiling, but it also places Mitchell behind Bauers and Christian Yelich in a lineup that should create traffic.
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Rays vs Brewers home run combo: Jake Bauers + Junior Caminero
Caminero gets a velocity test but will see the pitch he damages most, while Bauers gets a softer, shape-heavy arsenal and the platoon advantage. Both occupy premium lineup spots, giving each a strong chance at four plate appearances.
There is also a workload angle. Misiorowski has not completed five innings this postseason, while Martinez’s low strikeout rate forces him to navigate extended contact. That creates additional opportunities against both bullpens if neither starter supplies the home run.
- HR picks: 3-4, +6.29 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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