Our MLB expert picks have uncovered plenty of value on some road teams tonight!
See why the Cubs and Blue Jays will be among those to succeed in a hostile environment on Friday, Sept. 18.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: CHC ML |
56% |
 Jon Metler: BOS ML |
48% |
 Joe Osborne: TOR -1.5 |
44% |
 Dustin Saracini: DET/CHW o8.5 |
50% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Cubs moneyline
Price: 56¢ at Polymarket
The Reds were a sleepy afternoon team yesterday, with an offense that struggled to take advantage of good hitting conditions and poor starting pitching. Now they face another legit team coming off rest, and Clay Holmes has been great this year.
He's had three bad starts in 16 all year, and in the other 13, he's allowed two or fewer runs. Chase Burns can be a tough matchup, but he's thrown three innings in back-to-back starts and is being scaled back, while the Reds' middle bullpen was used yesterday.
Chicago could own the middle-to-late innings and should be closer to a 58%-59% favorite, with Burns likely only covering a third of the game.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: MARQ, Reds.TV
Jon Metler's expert pick: Red Sox moneyline
Price: 48¢ at Polymarket
For the second straight day, give me the Boston Red Sox at 48% on Polymarket, as I price them closer to a 51% favorite against the Tampa Bay Rays.
The Rays can load up with seven right-handed bats, including their two most dangerous hitters, Yandy Díaz and Junior Caminero. However, this isn't as difficult a matchup for Ranger Suárez as the lineup may suggest.
Suárez isn't a soft-tossing lefty, and his two-seam sinker should allow him to work inside against Tampa Bay's right-handed bats. The natural swing paths of Caminero and Díaz also set up well for this pitch, as they're more likely to drive it into the ground than elevate it into the gaps.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: NESN, Rays.TV
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Blue Jays -1.5
Price: 44¢ at Polymarket
This one’s served on a silver platter for the rested Jays.
Dylan Cease carries a ridiculous 1.89 road ERA into Texas, having allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his last five starts. Kumar Rocker has been smacked around for a 5.02 home ERA, with Texas losing six of his last eight home starts.
Toronto ranks sixth in OPS against righties over the past two weeks while Texas ranks a brutal 26th. The Jays bullpen is also in much better form at the moment. Also helping our case is the Rangers burning through seven pitchers yesterday against Boston.
Give me Toronto -1.5 to capitalize on this beauty of a setup.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- How to watch: RSN, SN
Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Tigers vs White Sox Over 8.5
Price: 50¢ at Polymarket
We're looking for runs in a matchup featuring two young pitchers with an ERA north of 5.00. I'd price this closer to 55% against the 50% we're actually getting from Polymarket, so we'll take this value and run with it.
The No. 12 prospect for the Detroit Tigers, Andrew Sears, is a slow-throwing lefty up against a team with the eighth-highest wRC+ that loves crushing southpaws. The White Sox own a .741 OPS in this matchup and should take advantage of Sears' early major-league struggles.
Chicago's No. 7 prospect Drew Sandlin gets the nod, and he's allowed three or more earned runs in four of his six starts this season.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: DSN, CHSN
More MLB picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| ATL ML | 54% |
| Read analysis in our Braves vs. Astros predictions. | |
| LAD -1.5 | 57% |
| Read analysis in our Giants vs. Dodgers predictions. | |
| ARI ML | 49% |
| Read analysis in our Yankees vs. Diamondbacks predictions. | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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