The Los Angeles Dodgers get the chance to tee off on Cincinnati Reds right-hander Rhett Lowder tonight, and the Over for that contest headlines our MLB expert picks on Wednesday, Sept. 9.
A trio of moneyline predictions round out our MLB picks for the slate, with action kicking off this afternoon and rolling all the way to the wee hours of the night.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: ATH ML |
37% |
 Jon Metler: ATL ML |
54% |
 Neil Parker: TEX ML |
43% |
 Joe Osborne: CIN/LAD o8.5 |
50% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: A's moneyline
Price: 37¢ at Polymarket
Do the Toronto Blue Jays deserve to be a bigger favorite today than yesterday, going from Jose Soriano to a bullpen day?
This offense still can't pull away from bad pitching, and now it has to get on a plane and head home to open a circled series against the Orioles.
Braydon Fisher gets the start but will go one or two frames before likely handing the ball to Michael Lorenzen, Brendon Little, and/or Paul Sewald. There is no good Toronto arm to piggyback and eat big innings.
The Athletics are going with the same approach, but at least I'm getting 13 percentage points better than a 50% probability with them against the Jays. I don't see this as a 63/37 game when both teams will be using a ton of arms and the Jays are in a tough schedule spot.
This isn't much different than the Dylan Cease start price. I see this as 60/40, at best, for Toronto.
Ethan Diamandas has more with his Blue Jays vs. Athletics predictions.
- Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Sportsnet, NBC Sports California
Jon Metler's expert pick: Braves moneyline
Price: 54¢ at Polymarket
The Atlanta Braves are trading as 54% favorites on Polymarket in their matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays, and I see an edge because I price Atlanta closer to 57%.
Two things I particularly like about this matchup for the Braves will help neutralize Tampa Bay's speed and running game.
First, Reynaldo Lopez isn't afraid to challenge hitters with velocity at the top of the zone, making it more difficult for the Rays' slap hitters to put the ball on the ground and beat out plays at first base. Second, Sean Murphy has a quick transfer and an elite pop time, limiting Tampa Bay's running game once the Rays get runners on base.
For an opposing angle, check out Jason Wilson's Rays vs. Braves predictions.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Rays.TV, BravesVsn
Neil Parker's expert pick: Rangers moneyline
Price: 43¢ at Polymarket
While big things are ahead for Seattle Mariners prized prospect Kade Anderson, he lands in a tough matchup against the rolling Texas Rangers.
Texas ranks fourth in wOBA against lefties for the season, and also sits eighth in the overall metric and sixth in xwOBA over the past two weeks while averaging 5.6 runs per game.
Anderson has also underwhelmed at the highest level with a 5.14 xFIP, negative pitch values on both his fastball and changeup, and an unintimidating 24.1% called-plus-swinging strike rate.
With the Mariners ranking last in wOBA against lefties, 24th in the overall metric, and 23rd in xwOBA over the past two weeks, I recommend the Texas moneyline up to 44%.
For more on this game, Neil has a complete set of Rangers vs. Mariners predictions waiting for you.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: RSN, Mariners.TV
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Reds at Dodgers Over 8.5
Price: 50¢ at Polymarket
The Los Angeles Dodgers are heating up at the right time and are in a great spot to tee off on the Cincinnati Reds pitching staff.
Rhett Lowder has been obliterated on the road, where he owns a 6.79 ERA. He's backed by a struggling bullpen that has a 6.23 ERA over the past two weeks.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is a tougher assignment, but Cincinnati’s lineup is red-hot, ranking first in OPS over the past week and should make him work.
With the Reds capable of contributing and Los Angeles positioned to do serious damage, expect the teams to combine for at least nine runs.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Reds.TV, SportsNet LA
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| DET ML | 55% |
| Read analysis in our Twins vs. Tigers predictions | |
| BAL ML | 50% |
| Read analysis in our Guardians vs. Orioles predictions | |
| PHI -1.5 | 41% |
| Read analysis in our Astros vs. Phillies predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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