The Arizona Diamondbacks (50%) have enjoyed a ton of success with Brandon Pfaadt on the mound, winning 11 of 14 starts.
With the Houston Astros offense struggling to string together hits against right-handed pitching, I'm happy to back Arizona with my Diamondbacks vs. Astros predictions and MLB picks.
Who will win Diamondbacks vs Astros today: Arizona Diamondbacks (51%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Brandon Pfaadt’s recent dip in play is only natural when facing a gauntlet that includes the Dodgers, Braves, Red Sox, Cubs, and Phillies.
The Houston Astros do not belong in that conversation offensively. They rank dead last in wOBA vs. righties the past month, and their xwOBA is actually lower than the results they’ve garnered.
I have more faith in the Arizona Diamondbacks offense. They sit 16th in wOBA over the same span and are facing the inexperienced Ethan Pecko, who has not been able to keep runners off the bases (1.54 WHIP).
Back Arizona to 53%.
COVERS INTEL: Brandon Pfaadt ranks in the 91st percentile in walk rate, making opposing offenses earn everything they get.
Diamondbacks vs Astros Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (51%)
The Diamondbacks are seeing righties well, ranking ninth in barrel rate over the past month. Pecko has given up a ton of quality contact (10.3% barrel rate, 51.3% hard-hit rate), and the Diamondbacks should take full advantage of that.
Pfaadt has given up five homers over his past three starts, and he ranks in the 44th percentile in barrel suppression this season.
Houston may not be stringing together hits right now, but only the Nationals have more homers against right-handed pitching at home. They have power to contribute.
Play the Over to 52%.
Diamondbacks vs Astros home run prediction: Nolan Arenado (15%)
Sinkers and fastballs account for nearly 65% of Pecko’s pitches against right-handed batters. That sets up favorably for Nolan Arenado, who possesses ISOs above .230 when facing each of those pitches.
We’re still dealing with small sample sizes with Pecko, but he ranks in the 5th percentile or worse in xwOBA, xSLG, and ISO. He is giving up a ton of good, hard contact, and Arenado is a good candidate to take advantage.
- ML/RL bets: 99-90, -11.48 units
- Over/Under bets: 95-86-6, -5.27 units
Diamondbacks vs Astros weather
This game will be played indoors.
Diamondbacks vs Astros odds
- Moneyline: Diamondbacks 50% | Astros 51%
- Run line: Diamondbacks -1.5 (38%) | Astros +1.5 (63%)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (49%) | Under 8.5 (52%)
Diamondbacks vs Astros trend
Arizona has hit the moneyline in 15 of the last 24 away games (+10.90 units, 43% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Astros.
How to watch Diamondbacks vs Astros and game info
| Location | Daikin Park, Houston, TX |
| Date | Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Brandon Pfaadt (7-2, 3.49 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher | Ethan Pecko (1-0, 6.23 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Astros latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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