The St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets wrap up a three-game set at Citi Field this afternoon.
My Cardinals vs. Mets predictions are targeting New York to avoid a sweep in the series finale. Read more in my MLB picks for Thursday, June 11.
Who will win Cardinals vs Mets today: Mets moneyline (-135)
The St. Louis Cardinals hand Hunter Dobbins the baseball today. At first glance, he's been pitching very well lately, but the underlying metrics suggest he's due for regression. Dobbins has a 1.04 ERA over his last two starts, but his xERA actually sits at 5.37.
During that span, Dobbins has allowed a 50% hard-hit rate and a 13.6% barrel rate, suggesting the underlying contact quality is far worse than the results indicate. Keep in mind he's only made three appearances this season. While the New York Mets are only hitting .218 over the last week, they own a 43.2% hard-hit rate.
New York counters with Christian Scott on the hill, and he has an impressive 2.70 FIP over the last month, and the righty hasn't allowed a single home run. He's also limited opponents to a 2.9% barrel rate in those 25 innings. I'll play this pick up to -140.
COVERS INTEL: The Cardinals have just a .146 ISO on the road this season, and Christian Scott's prevention of the long ball at home should come in handy against a team swinging it well lately. 
Cardinals vs Mets Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+110)
This Cardinals bullpen owns a respectable 3.70 xERA over the last week, and although I expect the Mets to generate more offense than the two runs they've scored so far in this series, this still profiles as a relatively low-scoring game.
If New York does damage, it will likely come against Dobbins rather than a Cardinals bullpen that has quietly pitched well lately. The Mets' bullpen, meanwhile, owns a 4.87 FIP over the last seven days, but New York should still be in a solid position if its starter can provide a quality outing.
St. Louis isn't at its best offensively on the road, posting a 99 wRC+ while batting just .237. This feels like a game where the Mets score more runs than usual, but neither side generates enough offense to push this total beyond the number. I'll play this up to -110.
- ML/RL bets: 22-20, +0.77 units
- Over/Under bets: 25-16, +5.03 units
Cardinals vs Mets odds
- Moneyline: Cardinals +122 | Mets -127
- Run line: Cardinals +1.5 (-156) | Mets -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-122) | Under 8.5 (+117)
Cardinals vs Mets trend
The Mets have stayed Under their team total in 33 of their last 50 games for +14.8 units and a 26% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Mets.
How to watch Cardinals vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Flushing, NY |
| Date | Thursday, June 11, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Cardinals.TV, SNY |
| Cardinals starting pitcher | Hunter Dobbins (1-0, 2.77 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | Christian Scott (2-0, 2.50 ERA) |
Cardinals vs Mets latest injuries
Cardinals vs Mets weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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