Back-to-back home runs by the Boston Red Sox in the first inning weren’t enough to stop the Atlanta Braves from adding another win to their MLB-best record, as they prevailed 7-6 on Tuesday night at Fenway Park.
While the NL East heavyweights enter tonight’s matchup at essentially a pick’em price, my Braves vs. Red Sox predictions are backing Atlanta behind another strong outing from Bryce Elder.
Let's get right into my MLB picks for Wednesday, May 27.
Who will win Braves vs Red Sox today: Braves (-108)
Chris Sale may get most of the attention atop the Atlanta Braves' rotation, but Bryce Elder has been every bit as dominant in his own right, leaning on a deep five-pitch mix to post a 1.97 ERA while ranking in the 90th percentile in Barrel% at Baseball Savant.
Elder is set to take on a Boston Red Sox offense that has been virtually non-existent in 2026, sitting 29th in runs per game (3.7) and sporting a .696 OPS on the year.
On the other hand, Atlanta’s lineup has swung back to form this season, ranking third in wOBA (.334), wRC+ (112), and trailing only the New York Yankees in team home runs. Take the Braves to make it consecutive wins in Beantown, and I’d play this up to -125.
COVERS INTEL: Despite Elder averaging just 92.6 mph on his heater — 2.5 mph below the league average — the right-hander’s fastball run value sits in the 100th percentile.
Braves vs Red Sox Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-117)
Although Robert Suarez and Raisel Iglesias each pitched an inning yesterday for Atlanta, Monday was an off-day for the Braves, which should allow them to run it back with their high-leverage bullpen arms tonight. Meanwhile, both Aroldis Chapman and Garrett Whitlock are coming off multiple days of rest for the BoSox.
Both bullpens rank Top 5 in reliever ERA, and I expect the offense to dry up for the most part after the first five innings. These teams are a combined 48-55 to the Over/Under this season, and considering the floundering Red Sox are already without Roman Anthony, I'm leaning toward the Under.
Braves vs Red Sox odds
- Moneyline: Braves -108 | Red Sox -108
- Run line: Braves -1.5 (+146) | Red Sox +1.5 (-176)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+104) | Under 8.5 (-117)
Braves vs Red Sox trend
Atlanta is a league-best 20-8 SU on the road this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Red Sox.
How to watch Braves vs Red Sox and game info
| Location | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date | Wednesday, May 27, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | BravesVision, NESN |
| Braves starting pitcher | Bryce Elder (4-2, 1.97 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Connelly Early (4-2, 3.33 ERA) |
Braves vs Red Sox latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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