The New York Mets will try to claim a series win when they host the Atlanta Braves in a rubber game this afternoon.
Atlanta pitcher Bryce Elder has been among the best in the majors this year, and I like him to lead his team to victory in my Braves vs. Mets predictions.
Keep reading to see my full analysis and to get my free MLB picks for Sunday, June 14.
Who will win Braves vs Mets today: Braves moneyline (+102)
Bryce Elder’s analytics look as good as any pitcher in the majors this year, rating in the 99th percentile for pitching run value. He’s been especially good at preventing hitters from getting all of his pitches, allowing barrels on just 3.7% of batted balls.
The Atlanta Braves should hit New York Mets starter Freddy Peralta well. He relies heavily on his four-seam fastball, throwing it 54% of the time, while the Braves are pulling that pitch in the air 18.5% of the time off righties. I see Atlanta as a favorite and would bet them at -120 or better.
COVERS INTEL: Bryce Elder throws four-seamers, sinkers, and sliders for 79% of his pitches. The Mets hit just 21.5% of those pitches for line drives off righties, the third-lowest rate in the majors.
Braves vs Mets Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-110)
I like this Braves offense to carry this total. Atlanta has a wOBA of .330 and is barreling up 9.5% of their batted balls, which will play well on a hot day in New York. Peralta has been particularly poor as of late, throwing to an ERA of 5.65 over his last five starts.
While New York may not get a lot of balls in the air off Elder’s arsenal, they do have a solid 17.2% air pull rate off those pitches. With reasons to expect runs on both sides, I like the Over at 8.5 runs or less.
- ML/RL bets: 13-16, -3.84 units
- Over/Under bets: 10-17, -7.59 units
Braves vs Mets odds
- Moneyline: Braves +100 | Mets -120
- Run line: Braves +1.5 (-205) | Mets -1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Braves vs Mets trend
The Braves are 5-2 in Bryce Elder's last seven starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Mets.
How to watch Braves vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date | Sunday, June 14, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | BravesVision, WPIX-11 |
| Braves starting pitcher | Bryce Elder (5-3, 2.66 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | Freddy Peralta (4-5, 4.04 ERA) |
Braves vs Mets latest injuries
Braves vs Mets weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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