There’s an AL West showdown between the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field on Monday, and it’s the visitors entering as the betting favorites.
Houston will send Hunter Brown to the mound, and my top Astros vs. Rangers predictions and MLB picks are calling for the righty to continue piling up strikeouts against the reeling Texas lineup.
Astros vs Rangers prediction
My best bet
Hunter Brown Over 5.5 strikeouts (+106 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Houston Astros starter Hunter Brown is proving to be a consistent source of strikeouts with a 19th-ranked 9.65 K/9 and 21st-ranked 24.9 K% among qualified starters. He’s also fanned six or more batters in nine of his past 12 starts, including racking up eight Ks in back-to-back trips to bump.
While the Texas Rangers aren’t a strikeout-happy club against righties (20.0 K%), they haven’t shown much pop either with a 25th-ranked .298 wOBA. Texas has been even worse during its active 2-7 slide with a .280 wOBA, too.
Brown’s underlying numbers are also calling for statistical correction. His 3.68 xFIP is well below his 4.22 ERA, and his .334 BABIP is the third-highest mark among qualified starters and is set to drop. Opposing hitters aren’t squaring Brown up well, either. His 4.9 barrel percentage is tied for fourth-lowest, and his 86.4 exit velocity is fifth-lowest among qualified starters, per FanGraphs.
Brown has also pitched at least five innings in 14 consecutive starts, and his numbers have improved along the way with a 2.64 ERA and 3.25 xFIP. His 9.85 K/9 and 26.8 K% are also up during the stretch. I’m expecting more of the same from the Houston righty, and Brown pitching deep enough into Monday’s game to clear this strikeout total.
Astros vs Rangers same-game parlay (SGP)
Hunter Brown Over 5.5 strikeouts
Astros moneyline
Astros F5 moneyline
The Rangers have lost seven of their past nine, and Texas starter Andrew Heaney has resembled a pitching machine over his past two starts while allowing 10 earned runs across just 9 1/3 innings. Houston sends out an above-average lineup against southpaws with a 14th-ranked .317 wOBA and 106 wRC+, and I expect the Astros to put runs on the board early and win Monday’s series opener.
There’s also a numbers edge to placing this same-game parlay through bet365. This SGP is priced at just +312 through FanDuel, so the +350 bet365 odds offer a positive expected value of 9%.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Astros vs Rangers odds
Astros vs Rangers live odds
Astros vs Rangers opening odds
- Run line: Houston -1.5 | Texas +1.5
- Moneyline: Houston -113 | Texas +105
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Astros vs Rangers spread and Over/Under analysis
- This game hasn’t seen notable line movement since opening at either Pinnacle or bet365 as of Monday morning.
- The Astros are a short road favorite, which isn’t surprising given the recent slide by the Rangers and starting pitching matchup favoring Houston.
- The total has seen more line movement, with the opening 8 moving to 8.5 early Monday morning before returning to 8 at Pinnacle.
- There has been similar movement at bet365, and both shops have the Over 8 carrying the higher vig after briefly making 8.5 totals available.
Astros vs Rangers trend
Hunter Brown has six or more strikeouts in nine of his past 12 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Rangers.
Astros vs Rangers game info
| Location: | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Monday, 8-5-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SCHN, BSSW |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Andrew Heaney (4-11, 4.12 ERA) |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Hunter Brown (9-7, 4.11 ERA) |
Astros vs Rangers latest injuries
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