Toronto Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is showing signs of a turnaround, and today’s +150 price for the Over on his base prop doesn’t reflect how well he profiles against Houston Astros starter Hunter Brown.
Read on for my Astros vs. Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks for this Monday, June 22 matchup.
Astros vs Blue Jays predictions
Astros vs Blue Jays best bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+150)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. profiles extremely well against Hunter Brown. The Houston Astros starter primarily throws a fastball/sinker combination, and Vladdy owns a .373 batting average with a .483 slug rate against those pitches.
Since June 1, his hard-hit rate has risen from 48% to 57% against these pitch types, which points to some extra-base potential.
Additionally, Guerrero Jr. has eclipsed this number in three of his last four games, showing serious signs of a turnaround, which gives me confidence in his market.
I’d play this to +130.
COVERS INTEL: 62.5% of Vladdy's extra-base hits have come against fastballs.
Astros vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
Let’s double down on Vladdy and take Under 0.5 strikeouts tonight. He matches up well against Brown and has been chasing fewer pitches lately, resulting in only two Ks in his last eight games — including no strikeouts in four straight.
George Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games, and profiles well against Brown, who’s primarily a fastball pitcher. Springer owns a .296 xBA over the last three seasons with a .558 xSLG against his two primary pitches.
Astros vs Blue Jays SGP
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 strikeouts
- George Springer Over 0.5 hits
Astros vs Blue Jays home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+440)
Brown is one of the toughest pitchers to homer against, but if a Toronto Blue Jays player leaves the yard tonight, Kazuma Okamoto’s profile gives him the best chance.
Most of Okamoto‘s team-leading 16 home runs have come off the fastball this season, where Okamoto owns a 63.2% hard-hit rate against the four-seamer.
However, Brown has yet to allow a home run in his three starts this season, and he ranked in the 97th percentile in hard-hit rate in 2025.
So we’ll just make Okamoto’s home run play a quarter unit.
- Best bets: 35-39, +0.75 units
- SGPs: 14-60, +2.15 units
- HR picks: 12-62, +1.8 units
Astros vs Blue Jays odds
- Moneyline: Houston +105 | Toronto -125
- Run line: Houston +1.5 (-210) | Toronto -1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under: Over 7 (-125) | Under 7 (+105)
Astros vs Blue Jays trend
The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the first five innings (F5) run line in six of their last eight games (+3.60 Units / 36% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Blue Jays.
How to watch Astros vs Blue Jays and game info
| Location | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Monday, 6-22-2026 |
| First pitch | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | SCHN, SN |
| Astros starting pitcher | Hunter Brown (1-0, 1.10 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Shane Bieber (2025: 4-2, 3.57 ERA) |
Astros vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Astros vs Blue Jays weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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