Best NFL Picks Today

I can get behind DK Metcalf at 2.7x, but when Germie Bernard has Aaron Rodgers' trust, is seeing double-digit targets, and is 60 points longer, I'll take the rookie who caught the game-winning touchdown last week. I have him at a fair price of 3x in an indoor matchup against a defense allowing the fourth-most TDs per game (3.5). The Steelers can put up points Sunday, and they can do it through the air. This offense is passing at the second-highest rate in football (67% DB%) and owns the fifth-highest PROE. Even if Bernard isn't getting downfield, that might actually be a good thing in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense.

Not only is the Vikings' defense ranked first in points allowed and defensive EPA, but they own the best red-zone defense in football, allowing teams to score at just a 25% clip inside the 20. That's pretty damn incredible if you ask me; this bend-don't-break mentality is going to be a huge reason this Under cashes. Offensively, Minnesota hasn't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard, averaging just 21 points per game. The Vikings don't need to be spectacular on that side of the ball to win games - they simply need to be serviceable and avoid costly mistakes. Even against a struggling Colts defense, I'm not expecting many explosive plays. Instead, this matchup has the makings of a conservative, low-scoring affair with limited scoring opportunities.

The Jets come back to MetLife Stadium for an AFC East encounter with the Miami Dolphins. This will be just the third home game for Gang Green and the team could potentially have several starters back, including RB1 Breece Hall. Miami tightens some screws on offense coming off the bye week. New QB Malik Willis isn’t afraid to push the ball down field, sitting among the leaders in intended air yards. The Fins have run into some stiff competition, facing strong defenses in Minnesota, San Francisco, and Kansas City. As for their own defense, the Dolphins are dreadful, especially where it counts most. Miami has the second worst third down defense and ranked 29th in opponent success rate heading into their Week 6 bye.

I have the fair price at 4x for what should be the No. 3 wide receiver role at home against the Bengals. Lane looked great in his return to the lineup last week, playing 87% of the snaps in 3-WR sets and seeing five targets. The Rashod Bateman injury shouldn't impact his role, as it was Devontez Walker who picked up those snaps in heavier sets. This offense could use a spark after an ugly loss, and Lane was a preseason standout who already has three red-zone targets on just eight total targets. This TD play looks even better if Lamar Jackson can return.

In a matchup where the smallest margins could ultimately decide the outcome, finding even the slightest edge is crucial. And when it comes to the Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans, that edge lies on the defensive side of the ball. Cleveland's defense has quietly been a bright spot this season, ranking 13th in defensive EPA per play, while Tennessee sits a lowly 23rd. The Browns simply have the stronger unit, surrendering just 20 points per game while boasting the NFL's fifth-best red-zone defense; opponents are converting only 43% of their red-zone trips into touchdowns. I'm all over the Browns here - Cam Ward and his struggling offense are going to have a difficult time moving the ball between the 20s and ultimately finding the end zone.

The Buccaneers’ luck could change this Sunday, starting with Baker Mayfield making progress in his return from a thumb injury. He was back on the practice field ahead of Sunday’s road clash with the Carolina Panthers. Another less-Swedish proverb is “defense travels”. That’s a good thing for Tampa, considering its stop unit has quietly crept up the defensive metrics and sits Top 10 in sexy stats like EPA allowed, opponent success rate and Defensive DVOA. The Panthers’ three wins have come against teams either starting a backup QB (Atlanta) or fielding a dreadful defense (Detroit) - or both (Philadelphia). This is a massive matchup for Todd Bowles and the half-point hook on the field goal seems too much for a divisional rivalry.

Robinson is a workhorse for Atlanta and could see an even bigger snap share with fellow RB Brian Robinson Jr. dealing with a hamstring injury. Bijan also faces a 49ers defense that allows the second most receiving yards to running backs. Week 7 projections for Robinson’s receiving output all sit north of 30 yards with a ceiling of 39. My number comes out to 33+ receiving yards.

Playable to 51%.

The Texans defense ranks 10th in success rate allowed. The Giants rank a respectable 20th in defensive success rate, despite facing Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, and Jayden Daniels already this season. 

New York's secondary unit should be healthier in Week 7 than it has been in recent weeks, too. If the Giants are able to get cornerback Colton Hood or safety Tyler Nubin back this weekend, it would go a long way to keeping this game relatively low-scoring.

At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on passing than their typical game plan.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to pass on 63.2% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the model to have 130.4 total plays called: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.. The 2nd-most plays in football have been run by the Arizona Cardinals this year (a whopping 63.5 per game on average).. The Broncos defense has been something of pass funnel this year, leading opposing teams to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (37.8 per game) this year.

The Raiders have picked up their passing in the last three outings, dropping back on more than 67% of snaps. That’s comparable to the Rams’ passing play percentage, which sits at 67.8% in their last three showings. Both offenses play with pace, sitting Top 8 in quickness in terms of play clock used per snap. The Rams and Raiders are also comfortable turning up the intensity with higher rates of no-huddle used, both sitting in the Top 10 in hurry-up usage. The last four games for the Silver and Black have been absolute shootouts, topping the total in each outing. Before Sunday’s dud against Arizona, L.A. had gone Over the number in three straight showings.

This is a 53.5-point indoor total, and Matthew Golden is 2.63x as a potential No. 1 passing option who should have a fair price closer to 2.4x. Golden had 13 targets and 204 air yards last week and could have scored multiple TDs in what ended up being a one-TD effort. His 26% target share is three points higher than Christian Watson's, yet Watson is priced 30 points shorter to score. Golden has TDs in three of his last four games, along with a hefty seven red-zone targets over the last three weeks, tied for the most of any player in that span. Detroit has been one of the most generous teams to opposing WRs this year, allowing 179 yards per game (fourth most) and 1.08 TDs per game (fifth most). The Lions have also been awful in the red zone, allowing TDs on 81% of opponents' trips, the second-highest rate in football, while surrendering 29.6 points per game.

The Chiefs haven't faced the toughest schedule lately, with their last four opponents combining to go 4-18 SU this season. Mahomes hasn't needed to use his legs much, but Sunday night's matchup against Seattle should create more passing opportunities and a more neutral game script for a team with one of the lowest dropback rates in football. His rushing market has fallen, yet he's topped this number in 60% of his games, even with a healthy dose of kneel-downs eating into his totals during victories. He projects for 23 rushing yards, with a fair probability of 59% to reach 15+. I can picture it now: third-and-short, play-action to Kenneth Walker, and Mahomes busts a big gain on the bootleg.

McKee was solid in last Sunday’s start and has an easy matchup against this Dallas defense. Not only does he have a downfield threat in Smith, but he has a capable pass-catching RB in Barkley and a steady-handed TE in Dallas Goedert. The Cowboys average 1.8 passing touchdowns against and their red zone defense has allowed TDs on 66.7% of their opponents’ trips inside the 20-yard line.