Best NFL Picks Today

I like Williams to go for 20+ rushing yards on TNF (51%) and there’s value in buying his touchdown prop too. New England also has a very stingy red zone defense that has tightened the bolts in recent weeks, allowing a measly 40% touchdown rate to opponents the past three games. Williams rushed for two touchdowns in the Week 1 win versus the Panthers and has six red zone runs in his two and half outings this season. His touchdown probabilities sit as high as 31% for Thursday.

The Saints have been gashed on the ground and rank 32nd in run defense DVOA while allowing the highest rushing success rate. It’s been a huge contributor to them tying for the second-most points against per game (29.7), and it’s a particularly poor shortcoming against the Steelers in Week 7. Pittsburgh ranks second in rushing DVOA and fifth in EPA per rush, so I’m happy to back the Black and Gold below the key number of 3. The Steelers are set up to control the time of possession, and their defense is also far more formidable with ranks of eighth in DVOA while allowing the sixth-lowest EPA per play.

The Jets come back to MetLife Stadium for an AFC East encounter with the Miami Dolphins. This will be just the third home game for Gang Green and the team could potentially have several starters back, including RB1 Breece Hall. Miami tightens some screws on offense coming off the bye week. New QB Malik Willis isn’t afraid to push the ball down field, sitting among the leaders in intended air yards. The Fins have run into some stiff competition, facing strong defenses in Minnesota, San Francisco, and Kansas City. As for their own defense, the Dolphins are dreadful, especially where it counts most. Miami has the second worst third down defense and ranked 29th in opponent success rate heading into their Week 6 bye.

Give me the Bengals returning from their bye week to play the injury-riddled Ravens. Baltimore might have quarterback Lamar Jackson (ankle) back, but he’s still considered day-to-day after failing to practice ahead of Week 6. I expect the Cincinnati pass rush to have a say against a ho-hum Baltimore offensive line, too. The Bengals had the fourth-highest sack rate despite blitzing at the lowest rate through the first five weeks of the season. Of course, Cincy QB Joe Burrow also had the offense clicking with the seventh-highest DVOA and second-highest conversion percentage through Week 5.

In a matchup where the smallest margins could ultimately decide the outcome, finding even the slightest edge is crucial. And when it comes to the Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans, that edge lies on the defensive side of the ball. Cleveland's defense has quietly been a bright spot this season, ranking 13th in defensive EPA per play, while Tennessee sits a lowly 23rd. The Browns simply have the stronger unit, surrendering just 20 points per game while boasting the NFL's fifth-best red-zone defense; opponents are converting only 43% of their red-zone trips into touchdowns. I'm all over the Browns here - Cam Ward and his struggling offense are going to have a difficult time moving the ball between the 20s and ultimately finding the end zone.

Houston’s offense has looked strong since Week 1 and C.J. Stroud plays his best ball inside NRG Stadium. He and his suddenly stacked passing attack – now with 100% more Marvin Harrison Jr. – faces a struggling New York Giants defense. As for the G-Men’s offense, Jameis Winston/J.J. McCarthy were sacked five times in the loss to New Orleans. Neither QB makes great decisions under pressure, which is something they’ll feel a lot of in Houston. With DeMeco Ryans calling the shots for the stop unit again, the Texans are creating chaos. They have three takeaways in their two wins and this is perhaps the lowest level of QB competition this stellar secondary has played all season.

The Raiders have picked up their passing in the last three outings, dropping back on more than 67% of snaps. That’s comparable to the Rams’ passing play percentage, which sits at 67.8% in their last three showings. Both offenses play with pace, sitting Top 8 in quickness in terms of play clock used per snap. The Rams and Raiders are also comfortable turning up the intensity with higher rates of no-huddle used, both sitting in the Top 10 in hurry-up usage. The last four games for the Silver and Black have been absolute shootouts, topping the total in each outing. Before Sunday’s dud against Arizona, L.A. had gone Over the number in three straight showings.

Seattle sits second in pressure rate per dropback and doesn’t need to rely on the blitz to cook up that intensity. The Seahawks are Top 10 in both sacks and QB hits. Getting pressure from just the front four is the blueprint to beating Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City’s QB is a master at dissecting blitzes but struggles under pressure from a four-man rush, with his PFF rating dropping nearly 25 points when under duress. Injuries at left tackle are mounting for KC as well. Neither defense gives up big plays, sitting among the leaders in limiting explosive passes, and both offenses are very methodical. 

Philly checks in 1-5 ATS, and now the team has major injury concerns on both sides of the ball – and at every level. While there’s no sugarcoating the struggles of the Dallas defense, the offense can score on a Philadelphia stop unit allowing the seventh-highest EPA per play and generating pressure at the sixth-lowest rate. With the Eagles ranking 26th in offensive DVOA and dipping to just 14.5 points per game across their four consecutive losses, even the Cowboys can make enough stops to pull away and cover the number.