A non-conference clash shines under the prime-time lights when the Chicago Bears host the New England Patriots for Thursday Night Football.
Chicago welcomed star quarterback Caleb Williams back from injury this weekend, and his presence has the home team laying just short of a field goal against the defending AFC champs.
My Bears vs. Patriots predictions size up the opening action and current forms, giving my early leans and NFL picks for TNF on Oct. 22.
Patriots vs Bears predictions
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Early Patriots vs Bears spread pick: Bears -2.5
The Chicago Bears and New England Patriots were both victorious in Week 6, but neither looked like world beaters.
Chicago benefited from multiple blunders by Atlanta and still had to sweat it out in the fourth quarter. New England escaped the Jets but didn’t cover at home, thanks to New York stubbing its toe on crucial fourth downs.
Prime-time pups have been the trendy play over the past few weeks, but I’m not convinced the Patriots can compete in the Bears' weight class, at least on offense.
All eyes are on RB2 Kyle Monangai, who has missed time with turf toe. Chicago’s ground game is underrated and can get after a Pats run defense that's been pushed around. Monangai's return would give the Bears a boost.
I’ll lean toward the home side at anything short of the key number of three.
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Early Patriots vs Bears total pick: Under 50.5
This Over/Under total sits on a high side of 50 points for Thursday night.
As dangerous as this Chicago offense can be, the Bears' stop unit is just as sharp.
Chicago recorded five sacks on Atlanta in Week 6, and its blitz-centric pass rush is drumming up a high rate of pressure and creating opportunities for game-changing plays, like INTs and sacks.
The New England offensive line is a mess right now, with multiple starters missing. The short week doesn’t do quarterback Drake Maye any favors in that regard.
Maye has cleaned up his mistakes from early in the season but has faced some softer, less dangerous defenses over the past three games.
I’m going to lean Under the taller total, given that the Bears can grind out gains on the ground and force Maye into some miscues.
Patriots vs Bears odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Patriots vs Bears spread: Bears -2.5
- Patriots vs Bears moneyline: Patriots 41%, Bears 59%
- Patriots vs Bears Over/Under: 50.5
How to watch Patriots vs Bears
- Date: Thursday, Oct. 21, 2026, 8:15 p.m. ET
- City: Chicago, Ill.
- Venue: Soldier Field
- TV: PRIME
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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