West Virginia vs Virginia Picks & Props
WVU vs UVA Picks
NCAAF PicksCoastal Carolina hung 24 points on this Mountaineer defense, and at 46% probability I'll happily back the Hoos to match that output and tack on an additional touchdown. This is playable to 56%.
Pribula has completed 13-of-16 from play action so far this season, accounting for 246 of his 317 passing yards with an average depth of target of 12.8 yards downfield. He will connect on multiple big plays as they light up the scoreboard.
Virginia's defense was lights-out against NC State in the opening game, and will control a much tamer West Virginia offense.
Playable to 52%, I like this to just creep below the number with Virginia putting up points but limiting the Mountaineers on the ground and forcing a few turnovers from Mike Hawkins Jr.
Playable to 53% probability, I'm backing Virginia to cover the spread against a West Virginia defense that ranks in the 15th percentile in explosive pass play rate against.
Beau Pribula has connected on five of his six throws of 20+ yards, and Virginia's defense will allow him and the offense to continually extend the lead.
My power ratings made this spread nine, so we have some value there, especially above a key number of 10. West Virginia played one bad half vs Coastal Carolina in a game where they were up 24-0, so that final was a bit misleding. Virginia is getting too much respect in the market and I'm not there yet with them.
Virginia should control this game and the script will see the Cavaliers making it difficult for Mountaineers on both sides of the ball.
The Cavaliers rank 14th in early-down EPA/play defensively, and West Virginia's 0.14 early down EPA simply won't lead to many sustained drives.
WVU vs UVA Consensus Picks
WVU vs UVA Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPREAD
UVA
-10.5 spread
-11.54
PROJECTION
-1.0
DIFFERENCE
5.35%
EV
|
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|
TOTAL
Under
53.5 Total
53.36 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-1.71%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
UVA
B. Pribula
(QB)
o199.5 Passing Yards
242.27 OVER
PROJECTION
+42.8
DIFFERENCE
27.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
WVU
M. Hawkins Jr.
(QB)
o159.5 Passing Yards
189.52 OVER
PROJECTION
+30.0
DIFFERENCE
27.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
UVA
B. Pribula
(QB)
o59.5 Rushing Yards
69.12 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.6
DIFFERENCE
26.38%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
UVA
J. Middlebrook
(RB)
o59.5 Rushing Yards
87.25 OVER
PROJECTION
+27.7
DIFFERENCE
26.35%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
WVU
M. Hawkins Jr.
(QB)
u53.5 Rushing Yards
42.14 UNDER
PROJECTION
-11.4
DIFFERENCE
26%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UVA
T. Coleman
(WR)
o30.5 Receiving Yards
55.27 OVER
PROJECTION
+24.8
DIFFERENCE
26.3%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
WVU
D. Epps
(WR)
o19.5 Receiving Yards
44.62 OVER
PROJECTION
+25.1
DIFFERENCE
25.95%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UVA
K. Courtney
(WR)
o29.5 Receiving Yards
56.11 OVER
PROJECTION
+26.6
DIFFERENCE
25.38%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
WVU
C. Cook
(RB)
o13.5 Receiving Yards
19.32 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.8
DIFFERENCE
24.83%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UVA
D. Martin
(WR)
o19.5 Receiving Yards
20.06 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
-7.31%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
UVA
K. Courtney
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions
4.46 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.0
DIFFERENCE
16.42%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
UVA
J. Middlebrook
(RB)
o12.5 Carries
18.28 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.8
DIFFERENCE
24.87%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
UVA
B. Pribula
(QB)
o15.5 Completions
20.26 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.8
DIFFERENCE
23.1%
EV
|
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- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Over is 6-0 in Mountaineers last 6 games on grass.
Under is 6-0 in Cavaliers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 7-0 in Cavaliers last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.
Over is 6-0 in Cavaliers last 6 games in September.
Under is 8-1 in Cavaliers last 9 games on grass.
Mountaineers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. ACC.
Under is 10-1 in Cavaliers last 11 games overall.
ROI Trends
WVU vs UVA Top User Picks
West Virginia Team Leaders
| Rank | Leader | L10 | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Falcon4242 | 4-0-0 | +2000 |
| 2 | CCKILLA | 4-0-0 | +2000 |
| 3 | SlicerDicer | 4-0-0 | +2000 |
| 4 | bjs129 | 4-0-0 | +2000 |
| 5 | fishter923 | 4-0-0 | +2000 |
| 6 | PSL21 | 4-0-0 | +2000 |
| 7 | attitudes73 | 4-0-0 | +2000 |
| 8 | SouthernMotion | 4-0-0 | +2000 |
| 9 | glen2003 | 4-0-0 | +2000 |
| 10 | sweeton60 | 4-0-0 | +2000 |
| All Mountaineers Money Leaders | |||
Virginia Team Leaders
| Rank | Leader | L10 | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | wordziplay | 4-0-0 | +2000 |
| 2 | Haloman | 4-0-0 | +2000 |
| 3 | dcgmt | 4-0-0 | +2000 |
| 4 | nextclique | 4-0-0 | +2000 |
| 5 | any007 | 4-0-0 | +2000 |
| 6 | sportsking157 | 4-0-0 | +2000 |
| 7 | wallyswahoos | 4-0-0 | +2000 |
| 8 | lenny2098 | 4-0-0 | +2000 |
| 9 | JFT1010 | 4-0-0 | +2000 |
| 10 | bigguy69 | 4-0-0 | +2000 |
| All Cavaliers Money Leaders | |||