SMU vs Louisville Picks & Props
SMU vs LOU Picks
NCAAF PicksKevin Jennings is a strong longshot because SMU’s offense has been one of the most efficient units in this matchup. The Mustangs have generated +0.284 EPA per play, ranking 28th nationally, with a 56.7% success rate that ranks 15th. Louisville’s defense ranks 89th in EPA per play allowed and 77th in defensive success rate. Head Coach Jeff Brohm is winless against SMU and has struggled against mobile QBs throughout his tenure at Louisville which is probably why he's failed to beat the stud QB.
Jennings threw five touchdown passes last week and remains a legitimate rushing threat when Louisville’s pass rush forces him to improvise. The game total is near 60 points, and the close spread should keep SMU aggressive for four quarters. Jennings can score on a designed run, scramble or short-yardage play
I'm interested in the first-quarter Under if the total stays above 10.5 because the Mustangs have gone Under in the first quarter in 10 of their last 12 games. Louisville and Ole Miss combined for just three first-quarter points.
I lean toward the Over as long as it stays below 60.5 because both head coaches were college quarterbacks and both teams grade out in the 79th percentile nationally in offensive explosive play rate, per GameOnPaper.com.
Give me Louisville's moneyline up to 58% because I'm more impressed with its 1-1 start than SMU's 2-0 start and Cardinals QB Lincoln Kienholz looks like the real deal. Kienholz ranks fourth in the country in yards per pass and leads Louisville in rushing yards and touchdowns.
I keep coming back to SMU’s 27-24 win over Florida State. The Mustangs racked up nearly 600 total yards, outgaining the Seminoles by 261 yards despite turning the ball over four times. Their defense also impressed, holding Florida State to just 4-for-19 on third and fourth down combined. With a few weeks under their belt, I expect SMU to clean up the early mistakes that plagued them in Week 1. I like the Mustangs in this spot against Louisville.
Since my first-quarter Under contradicts my full-game Over, the payout for this combo is 7.7x. Once these offenses settle in, Jennings and Kienholz can take over.
SMU vs LOU Consensus Picks
SMU vs LOU Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPREAD
LOU
-1.5 spread
-1.98
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
-0.18%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL
Over
58.5 Total
60.28 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.8
DIFFERENCE
1.11%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
LOU
L. Kienholz
(QB)
o238.5 Passing Yards
263.15 OVER
PROJECTION
+24.7
DIFFERENCE
23.21%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
K. Jennings
(QB)
u290.5 Passing Yards
274.54 UNDER
PROJECTION
-16.0
DIFFERENCE
22.9%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
LOU
L. Kienholz
(QB)
o29.5 Rushing Yards
39.53 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.0
DIFFERENCE
26.81%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
LOU
T. Richardson
(WR)
o61.5 Receiving Yards
91.43 OVER
PROJECTION
+29.9
DIFFERENCE
27.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
LOU
J. Skinner
(TE)
o29.5 Receiving Yards
36.69 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.2
DIFFERENCE
24.98%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
LOU
L. McCoy
(WR)
o39.5 Receiving Yards
41.68 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.2
DIFFERENCE
12.86%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
SMU
Y. Knight
(WR)
o63.5 Receiving Yards
64.78 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.3
DIFFERENCE
2.39%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
LOU
T. Richardson
(WR)
o4.5 Receptions
5.99 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.5
DIFFERENCE
17.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
LOU
T. Hurry
(WR)
o2.5 Receptions
3.21 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
4.75%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
SMU
J. Cooper
(WR)
u3.5 Receptions
3.43 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
0.91%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
LOU
J. Skinner
(TE)
o2.5 Receptions
2.89 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-0.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
LOU
L. McCoy
(WR)
o2.5 Receptions
2.89 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-5.06%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
I. Brown
(RB)
u15.5 Carries
12.09 UNDER
PROJECTION
-3.4
DIFFERENCE
20.7%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
LOU
L. Kienholz
(QB)
o9.5 Carries
11.24 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.7
DIFFERENCE
16.99%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
LOU
L. Kienholz
(QB)
o19.5 Completions
21.40 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.9
DIFFERENCE
17.48%
EV
|
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- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Mustangs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games in September.
Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
Mustangs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
Cardinals are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Mustangs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
Mustangs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.