Florida State vs Alabama Picks & Props
FSU vs ALA Picks
NCAAF PicksFlorida State's secondary surrendered 272 passing yards and two scores to lowly New Mexico State in the opener and 430 passing yards (on 11.9 yards per play!) and three touchdowns by SMU. Enter Lotty Brooks, who was banged up in Fall Camp and played sparingly in the opener, but he proved his health with a five-catch, 54-yard performance in Week 2.
A great combo leg here: The Crimson Tide comes out hot early and owns the entire first half. They likely won't let up in this matchup, but expect them to come out looking to smack the Seminoles in the mouth after last year's embarrassment.
Florida State’s defense has been far from impressive through the first two weeks, and that could spell trouble against Alabama. The Seminoles allowed over 319 total yards to New Mexico State before nearly surrendering 600 total yards to SMU. Alabama has the offensive firepower to take advantage, and I expect the Crimson Tide to carry the bulk of the scoring in this matchup. However, if Alabama reaches 40 points, Florida State should have opportunities to do some damage in garbage time. I’m expecting a 40-10 final score, which would put the Seminoles in position to contribute enough late.
Alabama has this game circled after getting embarrassed by Florida State in last year’s season opener. The Crimson Tide are coming off a 45-17 beatdown of Kentucky, while the Seminoles had a bye after a horrible loss to SMU, where they were outgained by 261 yards despite SMU turning the ball over four times. There is also plenty of motivation on Alabama’s side, with Kalen DeBoer needing to prove he can fill Nick Saban’s shoes. With the Tide rolling and Florida State coming off an ugly performance, I’m backing Alabama to win by 21+ points. Take this up to 23.5.
Alabama should have no trouble moving the ball against a Florida State defense that has struggled to slow down opposing offenses, while the Tide are coming off a 45-point performance against Kentucky. This is also a game Alabama has had circled since losing to the Seminoles in last year's season opener. Expect the Crimson Tide to come out looking to smack Florida State in the mouth and establish control early, while the Seminoles should have enough opportunities to help push this game over 48.5.
FSU vs ALA Consensus Picks
43% picking Florida State
Total Picks FSU 248, ALA 324
FSU vs ALA Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPREAD
|
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|
TOTAL
Over
48.5 Total
49.98 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.5
DIFFERENCE
8.25%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
ALA
K. Russell
(QB)
o247.5 Passing Yards
267.67 OVER
PROJECTION
+20.2
DIFFERENCE
24.58%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
FSU
A. Daniels
(QB)
u29.5 Rushing Yards
15.10 UNDER
PROJECTION
-14.4
DIFFERENCE
26.84%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
FSU
O. Kromah
(RB)
o58.5 Rushing Yards
61.29 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.8
DIFFERENCE
16.67%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
FSU
M. Danzy
(WR)
o26.5 Receiving Yards
44.11 OVER
PROJECTION
+17.6
DIFFERENCE
26.23%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
FSU
D. Riles
(TE)
o6.5 Receiving Yards
15.12 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.6
DIFFERENCE
26.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
FSU
S. Singleton Jr.
(RB)
o8.5 Receiving Yards
19.94 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.4
DIFFERENCE
26.17%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
FSU
J. Boggs
(WR)
o19.5 Receiving Yards
32.23 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.7
DIFFERENCE
26%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ALA
R. Scott
(WR)
o29.5 Receiving Yards
39.83 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.3
DIFFERENCE
25.85%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ALA
K. Edwards
(TE)
o16.5 Receiving Yards
22.65 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.1
DIFFERENCE
25.28%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
D. Robinson
(WR)
o43.5 Receiving Yards
44.53 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.0
DIFFERENCE
-7.15%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
FSU
M. Danzy
(WR)
o2.5 Receptions
2.90 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
19.09%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
FSU
J. Boggs
(WR)
o1.5 Receptions
2.43 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
17.69%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
ALA
L. Brooks
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions
4.53 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.0
DIFFERENCE
15.03%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
FSU
A. Daniels
(QB)
u12.5 Carries
10.60 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.9
DIFFERENCE
19.39%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
ALA
K. Russell
(QB)
o18.5 Completions
22.12 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.6
DIFFERENCE
20.56%
EV
|
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- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Under is 5-0 in Seminoles last 5 games as a favorite.
Crimson Tide are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Crimson Tide are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Over is 4-0 in Seminoles last 4 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Crimson Tide are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
Under is 7-1 in Seminoles last 8 games overall.
Under is 6-1 in Crimson Tide last 7 home games.
Under is 7-1 in Seminoles last 8 games on grass.
ROI Trends
FSU vs ALA Top User Picks
'texas-bob' is picking Florida State to cover (+19.5)
texas-bob is #1 on picking games that Florida State is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'money455' is picking Alabama to cover (-16.5)
money455 is #10 on picking games that Alabama is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'jktheoneandonly' is picking Alabama to cover (-19.5)
jktheoneandonly is #10 on picking games that Florida State is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'Geo Lazos' is picking Florida State to cover (+16.5)
Geo Lazos is #2 on picking games that Florida State is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'seattle-8' is picking Alabama to cover (-16.5)
seattle-8 is #2 on picking games that Alabama is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'Sabster611' is picking Florida State to cover (+16.5)
Sabster611 is #5 on picking games that Florida State is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'Mattcanter' is picking Florida State to cover (+16.5)
Mattcanter is #5 on picking games that Alabama is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'bigsmoke21169' is picking Alabama to cover (-16.5)
bigsmoke21169 is #6 on picking games that Alabama is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'CC95531' is picking Florida State to cover (+15.5)
CC95531 is #9 on picking games that Florida State is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'ljohnson7131' is picking Alabama to cover (-16.5)
ljohnson7131 is #9 on picking games that Alabama is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.