USC vs Rutgers Picks & Props
USC vs RUTG Picks
NCAAF PicksKJ Duff is Rutgers’ best offensive weapon and should benefit from the game script against a heavily favored USC team. Rutgers offense has not been good but it's almost entirely him providing it, in addition, USC’s defense has allowed +0.158 EPA per play, ranking 80th. The Trojans also rank only 67th in defensive success rate.
Duff has 333 receiving yards and five touchdowns through three games. If Rutgers falls behind, quarterback AJ Surace should be forced to throw frequently, giving Duff additional opportunities against a defense that has not been particularly efficient.
Good down to +21.5. USC's mediocre defense allowed both San Jose State (26 points, 6.0 yards per play) and Louisiana (30 points, 6.9 YPP) to find offensive success, so a back door cover will be live for KJ Duff and this Rutgers offense.
Heisman candidate Jayden Maiava (10.8 yards per attempt) will have success throwing the ball around against a Rutgers defense that doesn't put pressure on the quarterback, ranking 124th in PFF's pass-rushing grade. Rutgers has the ability to hit chunk plays (26th in explosiveness) with reliable offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca calling the shots.
Gary Patterson hasn't led a top-20 defense since 2014, and USC's defense has allowed plenty of second-half points to overmatched competition. AJ Duff and Antwan Raymond present enough firepower; both quarterbacks, AJ Surace (8.5 yards per attempt) and Dylan Lonergan (8.3), have efficiently moved the ball downfield despite being turnover-prone.
USC has outscored its opponents 106 to 10 in the first half, but has gone just 1-2 ATS in the course of a full game. A similar outcome could be in store in Week 3 as the Trojans have a marquee matchup with Oregon on deck (lookahead spot!) after this cross-country road trip.
USC vs RUTG Consensus Picks
57% picking USC
Total Picks USC 248, RUTG 184
USC vs RUTG Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPREAD
|
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|
TOTAL
Over
58.5 Total
60.00 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.5
DIFFERENCE
-1.15%
EV
|
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|
PASSING YARDS
USC
J. Maiava
(QB)
u286.5 Passing Yards
273.26 UNDER
PROJECTION
-13.2
DIFFERENCE
21.09%
EV
|
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|
RUSHING YARDS
USC
K. Miller
(RB)
o79.5 Rushing Yards
96.72 OVER
PROJECTION
+17.2
DIFFERENCE
26.67%
EV
|
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|
RUSHING YARDS
USC
W. Jordan
(RB)
o48.5 Rushing Yards
60.65 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.2
DIFFERENCE
24.99%
EV
|
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|
RUSHING YARDS
RUTG
A. Raymond
(RB)
o89.5 Rushing Yards
91.94 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.4
DIFFERENCE
13.45%
EV
|
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|
RECEIVING YARDS
RUTG
J. Houston
(WR)
o29.5 Receiving Yards
54.18 OVER
PROJECTION
+24.7
DIFFERENCE
25.95%
EV
|
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|
RECEIVING YARDS
USC
C. Simms
(WR)
o39.5 Receiving Yards
48.36 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.9
DIFFERENCE
25.92%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
USC
M. Bowman
(TE)
o32.5 Receiving Yards
38.78 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.3
DIFFERENCE
23.11%
EV
|
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|
RECEIVING YARDS
USC
T. Hines
(WR)
o49.5 Receiving Yards
53.00 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.5
DIFFERENCE
15.88%
EV
|
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|
RECEIVING YARDS
USC
T. Mosley
(WR)
o60.5 Receiving Yards
63.90 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.4
DIFFERENCE
14.67%
EV
|
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|
RECEPTIONS
RUTG
J. Houston
(WR)
o2.5 Receptions
4.04 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.5
DIFFERENCE
16.08%
EV
|
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|
RECEPTIONS
USC
M. Bowman
(TE)
o2.5 Receptions
3.06 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
-1.14%
EV
|
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- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Over is 7-0-1 in Scarlet Knights last 8 games as a home underdog.
Over is 4-0-1 in Scarlet Knights last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 7-1 in Scarlet Knights last 8 games as a home favorite.
Under is 4-1 in Scarlet Knights last 5 games as an underdog.
Over is 4-1 in Trojans last 5 games as an underdog.
Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
Over is 13-3 in Scarlet Knights last 16 games as a favorite.
Scarlet Knights are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.
ROI Trends
USC vs RUTG Top User Picks
'csmooth515' is picking Rutgers to cover (+23.5)
csmooth515 is #1 on picking games that Rutgers are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'manomanomano551' is picking Rutgers to cover (+23.5)
manomanomano551 is #1 on picking games that USC is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3000 units on the season.
'peachiee2023' is picking USC to cover (-23.5)
peachiee2023 is #10 on picking games that USC is in with a record of (2-1-0) and +1950 units on the season.
'JFT1010' is picking Rutgers to cover (+21.5)
JFT1010 is #10 on picking games that Rutgers are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'Rads5777' is picking USC to cover (-23.5)
Rads5777 is #2 on picking games that Rutgers are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'CigarSt22' is picking Rutgers to cover (+22.5)
CigarSt22 is #2 on picking games that USC is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3000 units on the season.
'mjboxer' is picking Rutgers to cover (+22.5)
mjboxer is #5 on picking games that USC is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2500 units on the season.
'timstutler25' is picking USC to cover (-23.5)
timstutler25 is #6 on picking games that Rutgers are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'Pearl4ever' is picking USC to cover (-22.5)
Pearl4ever is #8 on picking games that Rutgers are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'goobero' is picking USC to cover (-21.5)
goobero is #9 on picking games that Rutgers are in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.