Michigan State vs Notre Dame   Picks & Props

I’m taking a slight lean toward Michigan State as a near 30-point underdog, largely because Notre Dame feels due for a game where it slips up against an opponent it should handle comfortably. Michigan State has been preparing for this matchup all offseason, while Notre Dame has a much bigger game against Miami on deck in Week 4. Spartans head coach Pat Fitzgerald also grew up surrounded by Fighting Irish fans on the South Side of Chicago, making this a game he would love to win. Notre Dame’s first two tests were Rice and Wisconsin, and its track record of overlooking weaker opponents makes me comfortable taking the Spartans to keep this within 30.

Notre Dame’s defense has allowed just 13 total points through two games, with all 13 coming against Wisconsin in Week 1. Michigan State has only faced Toledo and Eastern Michigan to open the season, so this will be a significant step up in competition for the Spartans’ offense. I expect Notre Dame to do the heavy lifting offensively, but Michigan State’s defense should be capable of keeping this from turning into a complete blowout. If the Spartans can limit the Irish early, I see a 41-10 final, keeping this game under the total.

Notre Dame is 9-3 ATS against current Big Ten teams under Marcus Freeman and 5-0 ATS if you remove Ohio State and USC from that equation. This is exactly Notre Dame's wheelhouse, and even a mucked-up first half against Wisconsin didn't stop the Irish from covering a three-touchdown spread. Meanwhile, Michigan State is 2-0 after taking down Toledo and EMU from the MAC, but the rushing attack that carried the Spartans to those victories will fall flat against an Irish defense that ranks 10th in opponent yards per carry.