MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on May 2, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

Baltimore Orioles logo BAL @ New York Yankees logo NYY Sat, May 2 • 1:35 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Baltimore Orioles logo New York Yankees logo o8.5 (-115)
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
Chris Hatfield image
Chris Hatfield
Betting Analyst

It’s past time for Ryan Weathers to come down to earth. His xERA of 4.63 is nearly a full run and a half over his actual. What’s pushing that expected number the most is a poor hard-hit rate and barrel rate that both rank in the Bottom 25 percentile of the sport. This Orioles lineup isn’t overwhelming with power, but the likes of Pete Alonso, Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman should still be enough to punish here. 

Moneyline
New York Yankees logo NYY (-163)
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
Chris Hatfield image
Chris Hatfield
Betting Analyst

Kyle Bradish's arsenal is a problem against this New York Yankees lineup. His fastball, breaking ball, and overall pitching run value all grade in the Bottom 15th percentile, and his walk rate sits in the 24th percentile, meaning he is going to put runners on base. That's a problem against such a potent offense.

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Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ Minnesota Twins logo MIN Sat, May 2 • 2:10 PM ET
3 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Kazuma Okamoto logo Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+440)
Best Odds
Pick made: 12 minutes ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Okamoto leads the Jays with seven dingers, after going yard twice last night, and Preilipp allows an average exit velocity of 93.5 mph while giving up a 45.5% hard-hit rate.

Strikeouts Thrown
Dylan Cease logo Dylan Cease o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-125)
Best Odds
Pick made: 17 minutes ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Through six starts this season, the right-hander is averaging 8.16 strikeouts per game with a 38% whiff rate, which ranks in the 98th percentile across baseball. 

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Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ @ Chicago Cubs logo CHC Sat, May 2 • 2:20 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Michael Busch logo
Michael Busch u0.5 Total Hits (+160)
Projection 0.72
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Michael Busch is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Wrigley Field as the 7th-worst stadium in the game for lefty batting average.. Wrigley Field has the 5th-deepest right field fences among all parks.. The weather report calls for the best pitching weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Total Hits
MB
Moises Ballesteros u0.5 Total Hits (+175)
Projection 0.78
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
This year, Moises Ballesteros has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 47% of his appearances when starting against righty on the mound.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Wrigley Field as the 7th-worst stadium in the game for lefty batting average.. The weather report calls for the best pitching weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the Arizona Diamondbacks.. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Moises Ballesteros's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.7% down to 6.7%.
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Cincinnati Reds logo CIN @ Pittsburgh Pirates logo PIT Sat, May 2 • 4:05 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Oneil Cruz logo
Oneil Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.8
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Oneil Cruz projects as the 11th-best home run hitter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 1st in the batting order today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Oneil Cruz will have the handedness advantage against Rhett Lowder in today's game.. Oneil Cruz has big-time HR ability (98th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (31% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Rhett Lowder struggles to strike batters out (6th percentile K%) — great news for Cruz.
Total RBIs
Matt McLain logo
Matt McLain o0.5 Total RBIs (+265)
Projection 0.43
Best Odds
Pick made: 41 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 76th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Matt McLain is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Matt McLain has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 94.9-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 88.3-mph mark.. Matt McLain's launch angle this season (22.3°) is a considerable increase over his 16.2° figure last season.
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Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL @ Washington Nationals logo WAS Sat, May 2 • 4:05 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Curtis Mead logo
Curtis Mead u1.5 Total Bases (-190)
Projection 0.8
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The #1 stadium in Major League Baseball for suppressing offensive stats to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park.. Built just 23 feet above sea level, Nationals Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the league, which often leads to lower offensive output.. Low humidity has a small yet noteworthy connection with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 4th-lowest humidity of all games today at 30%.. From last season to this one, Curtis Mead's ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes BABIP (-4° to 26°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 45% to 35.3%.. In the past two weeks, Curtis Mead's 25% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 35.3%.
Total Bases
James Wood logo
James Wood o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.69
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his BABIP skill, James Wood is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. James Wood is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. Nationals Park has the 8th-shallowest right field dimensions among all stadiums.. Extreme groundball hitters like James Wood tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Kyle Harrison.. James Wood will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.
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Cleveland Guardians logo CLE @ Athletics Athletics logo ATH Sat, May 2 • 4:05 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Carlos Cortes logo
Carlos Cortes u0.5 Total Hits (+170)
Projection 0.81
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Cortes in the 16th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.. Carlos Cortes hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 92nd percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 11th-deepest CF fences in today's game.. Carlos Cortes has been lucky this year, notching a .477 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .312 — a .165 gap.
Total Hits
Jeff McNeil logo
Jeff McNeil u0.5 Total Hits (+185)
Projection 0.89
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeff McNeil in the 18th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.. Jeff McNeil is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in today's game.. Sutter Health Park has the 9th-deepest fences in MLB — generally bad for HRs.. Jeff McNeil's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 89.6-mph figure last year has fallen to 83.6-mph.. Jeff McNeil's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last season to this one, going from 17.6% to 13.9%.
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Houston Astros logo HOU @ Boston Red Sox logo BOS Sat, May 2 • 4:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Trevor Story logo
Trevor Story u0.5 Total Hits (+160)
Projection 0.84
Best Odds
Pick made: 41 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to worse offense.. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report calls for the 4th-coldest temperature of all games on the slate today at 54°.. Spencer Arrighetti will have the handedness advantage against Trevor Story today.. Trevor Story has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 9.9% rate last season has decreased to 3.6% this year.. Trevor Story's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined from last season to this one, falling from 44.2% to 37.3%.
Total Bases
Carlos Narvaez logo
Carlos Narvaez u1.5 Total Bases (-250)
Projection 0.68
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Narvaez in the 23rd percentile when estimating his batting average skill.. Carlos Narvaez is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in this game.. In the league, the 2nd-tallest fences are at Fenway Park.. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to worse offense.. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report calls for the 4th-coldest temperature of all games on the slate today at 54°.
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Philadelphia Phillies logo PHI @ Miami Marlins logo MIA Sat, May 2 • 4:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Adolis Garcia logo
Adolis Garcia u1.5 Total Bases (-193)
Projection 0.93
Best Odds
Pick made: 19 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #4 field in the majors for suppressing home runs to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park.. Built just 6 feet above sea level, LoanDepot Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the league, which generally leads to lower offensive output.. Hitting from the same side that Max Meyer throws from, Adolis Garcia will be in a tough position in today's game.. Today, Adolis Garcia is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.3% rate (84th percentile).. Playing on the road generally lessens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Adolis Garcia in today's matchup.
Total RBIs
Adolis Garcia logo
Adolis Garcia o0.5 Total RBIs (+178)
Projection 0.64
Best Odds
Pick made: 19 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run ability, Adolis Garcia ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Adolis Garcia is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game.. The LoanDepot Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest 11° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense.. In the past week's worth of games, Adolis Garcia's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.7-mph over the course of the season to 98.4-mph lately.. Adolis Garcia has experienced some negative variance in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 19.6 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is significantly deflated relative to his 23.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
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San Francisco Giants logo SF @ Tampa Bay Rays logo TB Sat, May 2 • 6:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Drew Gilbert logo
Drew Gilbert u0.5 Total Hits (+120)
Projection 0.6
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Drew Gilbert in the 6th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. Drew Gilbert is projected to bat 8th in the batting order today.. The #2 field in Major League Baseball for suppressing BABIP to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.. Drew Gilbert will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup.. This year, there has been a decline in Drew Gilbert's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 27.69 ft/sec last year to 24.51 ft/sec currently.
Total Hits
Heliot Ramos logo
Heliot Ramos u0.5 Total Hits (+180)
Projection 0.87
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Heliot Ramos is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the 2nd-worst field in the game for RHB base hits.. Griffin Jax will have the handedness advantage against Heliot Ramos in today's matchup.. Playing on the road typically lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Heliot Ramos in today's game.
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Texas Rangers logo TEX @ Detroit Tigers logo DET Sat, May 2 • 7:15 PM ET
7 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Evan Carter logo
Evan Carter o1.5 Total Bases (+210)
Projection 1.55
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Evan Carter has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (81% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Comerica Park as the 7th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.. Among all stadiums, Comerica Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats.
Total Bases
Corey Seager logo
Corey Seager o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.81
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Corey Seager projects as the 9th-best batter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Corey Seager is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Comerica Park as the 7th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.. Among all stadiums, Comerica Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats.
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Los Angeles Dodgers logo LAD @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Sat, May 2 • 7:15 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 8 Computer Picks
Moneyline
Los Angeles Dodgers logo LAD (-135)
Best Odds
Pick made: 11 minutes ago
JD Yonke image
JD Yonke
Betting Analyst

There’s no way around it — the Los Angeles Dodgers are “going through it.” That leads to a deflated moneyline price tag, however, so I’ll back MLB’s super team at a reasonable number. That’s what the market does — overreact — when one club (the Dodgers) loses three straight while their opponent (St. Louis Cardinals) wins five in a row. Then we respond to said overreaction. Michael McGreevy’s 2.97 ERA is completely phony, and LA’s lineup should bring the regression that his 6.16 xERA is begging for. 

Total
Los Angeles Dodgers logo St. Louis Cardinals logo o8.5 (-120)
Best Odds
Pick made: 12 minutes ago
JD Yonke image
JD Yonke
Betting Analyst

LA’s lineup is poised to break out after averaging 1.7 runs over its last three games. This lineup leads the league in wRC+ (123), and players like Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Tucker should bounce back at a discounted price. McGreevy doesn’t miss bats (sixth percentile whiff rate, 16.5% K rate) and allows loud contact (13th percentile barrel rate). He’s a soft-tosser with sub-Big League stuff, and L.A. bats should punish him accordingly. 

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Atlanta Braves logo ATL @ Colorado Rockies logo COL Sat, May 2 • 8:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Brenton Doyle logo
Brenton Doyle u0.5 Total Hits (+190)
Projection 0.92
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
In the past 7 days, Brenton Doyle's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal figure of 89 mph to 82.2 mph.. Compared to his seasonal mark of 10.7°, Brenton Doyle has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-1°) in the last two weeks' worth of games.. Brenton Doyle's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last season to this one, falling from 14.6% to 8.3%.. Brenton Doyle has notched a .260 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, placing in the 4th percentile.. Brenton Doyle has posted a .212 batting average since the start of last season, checking in at the 8th percentile.
Total Bases
Hunter Goodman logo
Hunter Goodman o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 2.03
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Hunter Goodman as MLB's 17th-best home run hitter.. Hunter Goodman is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Coors Field grades out as the #1 venue in the majors for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude among all stadiums, which generally leads to higher offensive output.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions on the slate today.
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Chicago White Sox logo CHW @ San Diego Padres logo SD Sat, May 2 • 8:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Miguel Vargas logo
Miguel Vargas o1.5 Total Bases (+200)
Projection 1.54
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Miguel Vargas ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Miguel Vargas is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Petco Park has the 4th-lowest fences among all major league parks.. Miguel Vargas hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Miguel Vargas has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.1-mph to 91.1-mph in the past two weeks.
Total Bases
Andrew Benintendi logo
Andrew Benintendi o1.5 Total Bases (+200)
Projection 1.52
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Andrew Benintendi is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today.. Petco Park has the 4th-lowest fences among all major league parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Michael King throws from, Andrew Benintendi will have the upper hand in today's game.. Andrew Benintendi's launch angle of late (29° in the last week) is a considerable increase over his 21.4° seasonal angle.. Andrew Benintendi's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, rising from 19.8% to 22.8%.
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New York Mets logo NYM @ Los Angeles Angels logo LAA Sat, May 2 • 9:38 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Juan Soto logo
Juan Soto o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.85
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best batter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.. Angel Stadium has the shortest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. The Los Angeles Angels infield defense profiles as the weakest out of all the teams on the slate today.. Juan Soto has made big strides with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 21.7% seasonal rate to 36.4% over the past two weeks.
Total Bases
Francisco Alvarez logo
Francisco Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.52
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his home run talent, Francisco Alvarez ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Francisco Alvarez is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. Angel Stadium has the shortest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. Francisco Alvarez will have the handedness advantage over Reid Detmers today.. The Los Angeles Angels infield defense profiles as the weakest out of all the teams on the slate today.
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Kansas City Royals logo KC @ Seattle Mariners logo SEA Sat, May 2 • 9:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Carter Jensen logo
Carter Jensen o1.5 Total Bases (+185)
Projection 1.66
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carter Jensen in the 80th percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Carter Jensen is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.. T-Mobile Park has the 9th-shortest fence height (on average) in the league.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.. Given Emerson Hancock's large platoon split, Carter Jensen will have a huge advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Vinnie Pasquantino logo
Vinnie Pasquantino o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.83
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Vinnie Pasquantino is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. T-Mobile Park has the 9th-shortest fence height (on average) in the league.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.. Vinnie Pasquantino will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Emerson Hancock in today's game... and even better, Hancock has a large platoon split.. Vinnie Pasquantino pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.8% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest RF fences today.
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