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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 16, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.14 |
+150 
|
o7.5 -120 
|
+1.5 -145
|
|
4.66 |
-170 
|
u8.0 -115 
|
-1.5 +130
|
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 5-0 in Kays last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in White Sox last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as a road favorite.
Cleveland
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Messicks last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Messicks last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Under is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Nathaniel Lowe o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+130)
o1.5+135
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.71 |
+140 
|
o7.5 -128
|
+1.5 -159 
|
|
4.82 |
-155
|
u8.5 -124 
|
-1.5 +145
|
San Francisco
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Giants last 6 overall.
- Over is 5-1 in Giants last 6 games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in Giants last 6 on grass.
St. Louis
- Over is 6-0 in Liberatores last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts a home underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Jordan Walker o0.5 Total RBIs (+148)
o0.5+148
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.75 |
-140
|
o7.5 -125 
|
-1.5 +125
|
|
4.19 |
+125
|
u8.5 -130
|
+1.5 -135
|
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 7-0 in Rodons last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Yankees are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Minnesota
- Under is 5-0 in Matthews' last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Twins are 4-0 in Matthews' last 4 starts with 6 days of rest.
Top Projection
Aaron Judge o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
o0.5+155
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.87 |
+105
|
o8.5 -102
|
+1.5 -198
|
|
4.74 |
-118
|
u8.5 -114
|
-1.5 +170
|
Detroit
- Over is 4-0-2 in Tigers last 6 overall.
- Tigers are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Tigers are 6-0 in Monteros last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Toronto
- Over is 5-0 in Blue Jays last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Blue Jays last 5 home games.
- Over is 5-0 in Blue Jays last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Blue Jays last 5 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Hao-Yu Lee o0.5 Total RBIs (+237)
o0.5+237
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.36 |
+165
|
o7.5 -125
|
+1.5 -134
|
|
4.81 |
-184
|
u8.5 -132
|
-1.5 +126
|
Athletics
- are 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1 in last 7 games following a loss.
- Over is 7-2 in last 9 road games.
- Over is 5-1 in last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 starts vs. American League West.
- Under is 9-0 in Martinezs last 9 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Rays are 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Rays are 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.74 |
-210
|
o8.5 +100
|
-1.5 -125
|
|
4.13 |
+180
|
u8.5 -105
|
+1.5 +110
|
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 5-0 in Dodgers last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
Top Projection
Kyle Tucker o1.5 Total Bases (+163)
o1.5+163
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.69 |
-135
|
o7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +126
|
|
4.56 |
+120
|
u7.5 -105
|
+1.5 -135
|
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 5-0 in Hendersons last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Brewers are 4-0 in Hendersons last 4 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Brewers are 4-0 in Hendersons last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Brewers last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 5-0-1 in Pirates last 6 home games.
- Pirates are 9-0 in Jones' last 9 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0 in Jones' last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+205)
o0.5+205
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.91 |
-190
|
o8.5 -110
|
-1.5 -110
|
|
4.32 |
+170
|
u8.5 -104
|
+1.5 -104
|
Philadelphia
- Over is 4-0-1 in Phillies last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 vs. National League East.
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in Cavallis last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Nationals are 6-0 in Cavallis last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
Top Projection
CJ Abrams o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
o1.5+158
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.48 |
+123
|
o8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
5.38 |
-138
|
u9.0 -120
|
-1.5 +150
|
Baltimore
- Over is 8-0 in Bassitts last 8 starts as a road underdog.
- Over is 7-0 in Bassitts last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 9-0 in Bassitts last 9 road starts.
- Over is 5-0 in Bassitts last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
NY Mets
- Under is 2-0-2 in Mets last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Mets are 4-0 in Stocks last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Mets are 4-0 in Stocks last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
o0.5+190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.12 |
+120
|
o7.5 -120
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
4.74 |
-140
|
u8.0 -120
|
-1.5 +155
|
Atlanta
- Over is 5-0 in Braves last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Braves last 5 on grass.
- Over is 5-0 in Braves last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Braves last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 6-0 in Imanagas last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Imanagas last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Michael Busch o0.5 Total RBIs (+196)
o0.5+215
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.21 |
-105
|
o7.5 -125
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
4.02 |
-108
|
u8.5 -130
|
-1.5 +150
|
Boston
- Over is 5-0 in Bennetts last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Bennetts last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 road games.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 overall.
Texas
- Rangers are 6-0 in Gores last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 7-0 in Rangers last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Rangers are 6-0 in Gores last 6 home starts.
- Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home underdog.
Top Projection
Trevor Story o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
o0.5+242
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.51 |
+121
|
o8.0 -165
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
4.79 |
-140
|
u9.0 -114
|
-1.5 +152
|
Kansas City
- Under is 8-0-1 in Royals last 9 overall.
- Under is 8-0-1 in Royals last 9 on grass.
- Under is 6-0 in Royals last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Royals last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Houston
- Under is 7-0 in Astros last 7 home games.
- Under is 5-0 in Astros last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Astros last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Astros last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Jac Caglianone o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-101)
o1.5+105
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.26 |
-165
|
o10.0 -186
|
-1.5 -110
|
|
5.55 |
+145
|
u11.5 -115
|
+1.5 -105
|
San Diego
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 road games.
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 games as a road favorite.
Colorado
- Over is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 home games.
- Over is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 games a home underdog.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rockies last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rockies last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.48 |
-135
|
o7.0 -200
|
-1.5 +125
|
|
4.13 |
+120
|
u8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -145
|
Seattle
- Over is 5-0 in Kirbys last 5 road starts.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mariners last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 8-1 in Mariners last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 5-1 in Kirbys last 6 starts on grass.
LA Angels
- Under is 4-0-1 in Kikuchis last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Kikuchis last 5 starts on grass.
- Under is 6-0 in Kikuchis last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Kikuchis last 5 starts overall.
Top Projection
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+205)
o0.5+205
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.69 |
+115
|
o8.0 -162
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
5.20 |
-125
|
u9.5 -135
|
-1.5 +160
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 7-0 in Marlins last 7 games following a win.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 during game 3 of a series.
Arizona
- Over is 5-0-2 in Kellys last 7 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Kellys last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Diamondbacks last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Top Projection
Kyle Stowers o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
o0.5+199
CHW
@
CLE
Wed, Sep 16 • 1:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Munetaka Murakami o1.5 Total Bases (+185)
Projection 1.43
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Munetaka Murakami projects as the 2nd-best home run hitter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Munetaka Murakami is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game.. Progressive Field grades out as the #2 field in the game for left-handed base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report projects the 2nd-most humid conditions on the slate today at 80%.. In the last week, Munetaka Murakami's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 100.2-mph over the course of the season to 103.7-mph lately.
Total RBIs
Jo Adell o0.5 Total RBIs (+149)
Projection 0.74
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jo Adell in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. Jo Adell is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Progressive Field ranks as the #2 stadium in Major League Baseball for righty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Progressive Field has the 2nd-shallowest LF fences among all stadiums.. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report projects the 2nd-most humid conditions on the slate today at 80%.
SF
@
STL
Wed, Sep 16 • 1:15 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Anthony Molina u3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-127)
Projection 2.98
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Anthony Molina to throw 80 pitches in this matchup (5th-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. Mark Wegner projects as a Hitters Umpire and is expected to be in charge of the strike zone in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Busch Stadium as the 4th-worst park in the game for strikeouts.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 90°.. Playing on the road generally lowers pitcher metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Anthony Molina in today's game.
Strikeouts Thrown
Matthew Liberatore o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+126)
Projection 5.9
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the most strikeout-heavy lineup in today's games is the San Francisco Giants with a 27.6% underlying K%.. Home field advantage generally bolsters pitcher stats in all categories, and Matthew Liberatore will hold that advantage today.. Matthew Liberatore's slider usage has spiked by 5.9% from last year to this one (21.1% to 27%) .
NYY
@
MIN
Wed, Sep 16 • 1:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Brooks Lee u1.5 Total Bases (-220)
Projection 0.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brooks Lee in the 7th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. Brooks Lee is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today's game.. The #5 venue in the game for suppressing home runs to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. The 10th-deepest centerfield dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Target Field.. In the majors, the 5th-highest fences are at Target Field.
Total RBIs
Aaron Judge o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.9
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Aaron Judge ranks as the best batter in the game.. Aaron Judge is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today.. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest elevation in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams on the slate today.. In the past week, Aaron Judge's 37.5% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 19.2%.
DET
@
TOR
Wed, Sep 16 • 3:07 PM ET
Total Bases
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.82
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his batting average ability, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the 3rd-best batter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Rogers Centre ranks as the #5 park in baseball for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 86th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will hold that advantage today.
Total Bases
Spencer Torkelson o1.5 Total Bases (+182)
Projection 1.51
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Torkelson in the 93rd percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Rogers Centre ranks as the #5 park in baseball for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 10th-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Rogers Centre.. Spencer Torkelson has averaged 30.4 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, placing in the 89th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. When it comes to power, Spencer Torkelson finds himself in the 75th percentile, having averaged 24.7 homers per 600 plate appearances this year.
ATH
@
TB
Wed, Sep 16 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Shea Langeliers o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 2.16
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive skill, Shea Langeliers ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Shea Langeliers is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Tropicana Field projects as the #1 stadium in the league for RHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Shea Langeliers's launch angle this season (19.4°) is quite a bit better than his 16.3° mark last season.. In notching a .348 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season, Shea Langeliers grades out in the 82nd percentile for offensive skills.
Total Bases
Zack Gelof o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
Projection 1.69
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his home run talent, Zack Gelof ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Zack Gelof is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. Tropicana Field projects as the #1 stadium in the league for RHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Zack Gelof has a ton of pop (83rd percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (27.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Nick Martinez struggles to strike batters out (16th percentile K%) — great news for Gelof.. Zack Gelof has made big improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 9.8% seasonal rate to 21.2% over the past two weeks.
LAD
@
CIN
Wed, Sep 16 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Miguel Rojas u1.5 Total Bases (-180)
Projection 0.78
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run skill, Miguel Rojas ranks in the 16th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Miguel Rojas is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today's game.. Out of all the teams today, the 4th-best infield defense is that of the the Cincinnati Reds.. Playing on the road typically lessens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Miguel Rojas today.. Miguel Rojas's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 90.1-mph figure last year has dropped off to 87.6-mph.
Total Bases
Elly De La Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+189)
Projection 1.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the 5th-best hitter in Major League Baseball when assessing his BABIP talent.. Elly De La Cruz is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Great American Ball Park as the 4th-best venue in baseball for RHB home runs.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate at 88°.. Elly De La Cruz has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
MIL
@
PIT
Wed, Sep 16 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Ryan O'Hearn o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
Projection 1.54
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O'Hearn in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.. The #3 field in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Ryan O'Hearn will have the handedness advantage over Logan Henderson in today's game.
Total Bases
William Contreras o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.68
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects William Contreras in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. William Contreras is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. PNC Park profiles as the #3 field in the majors for right-handed base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The weather report predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Over the last 7 days, William Contreras's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.7% up to 30.8%.
PHI
@
WAS
Wed, Sep 16 • 6:45 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Zack Wheeler u6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-108)
Projection 5.79
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
It is likely that we will see a Huge Hitters Umpire (Alfonso Marquez) in charge of the strike zone in today's game.. The #10 park in Major League Baseball for suppressing strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 82°.. As a result of his large platoon split, Zack Wheeler will have a tough matchup squaring off against 6 batters in the projected offense who hit from the other side in this matchup.. Zack Wheeler will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game.
Total RBIs
CJ Abrams o0.5 Total RBIs (+203)
Projection 0.62
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects CJ Abrams in the 85th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. CJ Abrams is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 82°.. Because of Zack Wheeler's large platoon split, CJ Abrams will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game.. CJ Abrams pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.8% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
BAL
@
NYM
Wed, Sep 16 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Juan Soto o1.5 Total Bases (+132)
Projection 2.02
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best batter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Juan Soto will hold the platoon advantage against Chris Bassitt in today's matchup... and moreover, Bassitt has a large platoon split.. Juan Soto hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Juan Soto will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.
Total Bases
Colton Cowser o1.5 Total Bases (+220)
Projection 1.35
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his home run talent, Colton Cowser ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Colton Cowser will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Robert Stock today... and moreover, Stock has a large platoon split.. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Colton Cowser has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.. Colton Cowser has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.. Colton Cowser has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 91.9-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 88-mph average.
ATL
@
CHC
Wed, Sep 16 • 7:40 PM ET
Moneyline
ATL (+121)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
At 45%, give me the Atlanta Braves to defeat the Chicago Cubs, as I think they should be trading closer to 49% in this matchup. JR Ritchie is on the mound for the Braves, but I don't expect him to go deep into the game. Fortunately, Atlanta has the relievers necessary to piece together a strong pitching performance against the left-handed bats in the Cubs' lineup. Left-handed reliever Dylan Lee hasn't pitched yet in this series, Raisel Iglesias has always been tough on left-handed hitters because of his changeup, and the Braves have multiple other lefties in the bullpen in Ray Kerr and Dylan Dodd. This breakdown is about neutralizing the power of Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch, if that wasn't obvious already. The Cubs' bullpen, on the other hand, ranks last in fWAR over the last 30 days.
Total Bases
Carson Kelly o1.5 Total Bases (+255)
Projection 1.15
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Wrigley Field has the 6th-shallowest LF fences in Major League Baseball.. Carson Kelly will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.. Based on Statcast data, Carson Kelly grades out in the 77th percentile for offensive ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .340.. Posting a 1.77 K/BB rate this year, Carson Kelly has displayed impressive plate discipline, checking in at the 76th percentile.
BOS
@
TEX
Wed, Sep 16 • 8:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Danny Jansen u1.5 Total Bases (-300)
Projection 0.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Danny Jansen's BABIP ability is projected in the 1st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Danny Jansen is projected to hit 9th in the lineup today.. The #1 park in baseball for suppressing offensive stats to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Globe Life Field.. The 6th-deepest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums are found in Globe Life Field.. The Globe Life Field roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -8° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.
Total Hits
Ezequiel Duran u0.5 Total Hits (+161)
Projection 0.83
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Ezequiel Duran has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (64% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.. The #1 venue in baseball for suppressing batting average to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Globe Life Field.. The 6th-deepest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums are found in Globe Life Field.. The Globe Life Field roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -8° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 5th-best among every team playing today.
KC
@
HOU
Wed, Sep 16 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Carter Jensen u1.5 Total Bases (-175)
Projection 0.77
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Minute Maid Park as the 6th-worst ballpark in the majors for run-scoring.. In the majors, the 3rd-highest average fence height are at Minute Maid Park.. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching.. Extreme flyball hitters like Carter Jensen generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Cristian Javier.. Carter Jensen will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.
Total RBIs
Vinnie Pasquantino o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Vinnie Pasquantino is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game.. Vinnie Pasquantino will hold the platoon advantage over Cristian Javier in today's game.. Out of all the teams today, the 2nd-worst infield defense is that of the the Houston Astros.. Vinnie Pasquantino has made big strides with his Barrel% recently, improving his 8.6% seasonal rate to 21.4% over the last week.. Vinnie Pasquantino's launch angle this season (20.1°) is a considerable increase over his 16.2° mark last season.
SD
@
COL
Wed, Sep 16 • 8:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Xander Bogaerts o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.78
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 91st percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.. Coors Field ranks as the #1 park in the game for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation among all major league parks, which often leads to more offense.. Xander Bogaerts has been unlucky this year, compiling a .291 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .330 — a .039 difference.. Utilizing Statcast data, Xander Bogaerts grades out in the 78th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .272.
Total RBIs
Connor Norby o0.5 Total RBIs (+185)
Projection 0.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Norby in the 86th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.. Connor Norby has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (65% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.. Coors Field ranks as the #1 park in the game for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation among all major league parks, which often leads to more offense.. Batting from the opposite that Robbie Ray throws from, Connor Norby will have the upper hand today.
SEA
@
LAA
Wed, Sep 16 • 9:38 PM ET
Moneyline
LAA (+118)
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor
Yusei Kikuchi’s season numbers aren’t pretty, but his recent form tells a different story, allowing just three earned runs over his last 17 innings. Neither offense inspires much confidence, so I’m happy to take the plus money with the hotter starter. Kikuchi also owns a 1.32 ERA across six career starts against Seattle.
Total RBIs
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+205)
Projection 0.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Mike Trout projects as the 7th-best hitter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mike Trout is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Among all parks, Angel Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the worst among all the teams in action today.. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Mike Trout will hold that advantage in today's game.
MIA
@
AZ
Wed, Sep 16 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Pavin Smith u1.5 Total Bases (-270)
Projection 0.71
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pavin Smith in the 23rd percentile when assessing his batting average talent.. Pavin Smith is penciled in 8th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.. 20% of the time that Pavin Smith has started against a right-handed starter this year, he has been pulled from the game early.. Chase Field has the 3rd-deepest CF fences in MLB.. Chase Field has the 10th-tallest fences among all major league stadiums.
Total Home Runs
Otto Lopez o0.5 Total Home Runs (+1050)
Projection 0.1
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Lopez in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. Otto Lopez is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest elevation in the league. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. The weather report projects the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Over the last week, Otto Lopez's 17.6% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14%.
BOS
@
TEX
Thu, Sep 17 • 8:05 PM ET
Moneyline
BOS (-119)
Trevor Knapp
Publishing Editor
Sonny Gray has become somewhat of an ageless wonder for the Red Sox, and the veteran right-hander has limited Texas hitters to a lifetime .505 OPS. With Gray on the hill, Boston is playable to -135.
TB
@
NYY
Tue, Sep 22 • 1:05 PM ET
Total RBIs
Austin Wells o0.5 Total RBIs (+305)
Projection 0.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Yankee Stadium ranks as the #7 ballpark in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Austin Wells will have an edge in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball batters like Austin Wells generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among every team on the slate today.
Total RBIs
Cody Bellinger o0.5 Total RBIs (+206)
Projection 0.55
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cody Bellinger in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Cody Bellinger is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Yankee Stadium ranks as the #7 ballpark in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Cody Bellinger will have an edge in today's game.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
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Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
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Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
