The New York Yankees are short road favorites against the Chicago Cubs, and I’m laying the moneyline.
The weather matters here. It's not going to a great day for baseball in Chi-Town with rain and heavy wind expected to blow in at Wrigley Field. That keeps me off the run line, but Max Fried still gives New York the better starter edge.
Here are my Yankees vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks for August 1.
Who will win Yankees vs Cubs today: Yankees moneyline (-127)
I'm backing the New York Yankees and I'd play them down to -130. The reason is simple: Max Fried.
He has allowed just a .247 xwOBA this season. That’s a strong fit against an up-and-down Chicago Cubs offense.
Veteran David Peterson hasn't been a disaster, but he will be more solvable. He owns a 5.14 xERA, .429 xSLG allowed, and just a 18% strikeout rate.
It gets most of his success out of his 80th percentile ground-ball rate. That could keep the Yankees' bats quiet for long stretches, but eventually the underlying metrics will catch up with him in a game of thin margins.
COVERS INTEL: Fried’s 1.6% barrel rate is not just good. It is nearly five full percentage points better than his 2025 mark.
Yankees vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Under 6.5 (-121)
We saw just how ineffective these offenses can be with barrel suppression yesterday in a 2-0 Yankees win. I'm backing another low-scoring affair and would play the Under to 6, particularly considering the weather in store.
Rain and wind blowing in at Wrigley are not small variables, especially with the pitchers in mind.
Fried fits the weather. His 50% ground-ball rate and almost non-existent barrel rate make it difficult for the Cubbies to create power.
Peterson’s overall profile is shakier, but he still owns a 49% ground-ball rate, and the weather helps cover some of his air-contact risk.
- ML/RL bets: 42-36, +9.58 units
- Over/Under bets: 45-34, +12.01 units
Yankees vs Cubs weather
Wrigley’s wind and rain are game-changers especially with Max Fried and David Peterson on the mound.
Yankees vs Cubs odds
- Moneyline: New York -121 | Chicago +110
- Run line: New York -1.5 | Chicago +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 | Under 6.5
Yankees vs Cubs trend
Yankees are 5-1 in Fried's last 6 starts as a favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Cubs.
How to watch Yankees vs Cubs and game info
| Location | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Saturday, August 1, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Max Fried (4-3, 3.23 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher | David Peterson (6-7, 5.80 ERA) |
Yankees vs Cubs latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
