MLB Picks

Kyle Bradish has a poor matchup in this spot today. The metrics tell the story pretty plainly: his run value grades in the bottom 20th percentile of baseball across his fastball, breaking ball, and overall pitching. What's even more relevant to this matchup against New York is a putrid barrel rate that sits in the bottom 17th percentile of the sport. These are the pitchers that the Yankees typically have their way with.

Billy Cook's batting average skill is projected to be in the 9th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Billy Cook is penciled in 9th in the lineup today.. Home runs are generally less common at fields with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all parks.. The Colorado Rockies infield defense projects as the 4th-best out of every team playing today.. Billy Cook and his -2° launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls rank in 3rd percentile, among the lowest in MLB since the start of last season.

Brady House might not be a household name yet, but he’s hitting in the middle of the Washington Nationals lineup from the right side and gets a strong matchup today against lefty Nick Lodolo, who was roughed up in his first start back last week while continuing to see his fly-ball rate climb. If Lodolo can’t keep the ball on the ground, it could be a short outing with 14-mph winds blowing out to center field. Returning from the blister that sidelined him, Lodolo surrendered two home runs while recording just 16 outs last week and threw only 78 pitches. That could mean plenty of innings for a Cincinnati Reds bullpen that owns the worst ERA in baseball over the last two weeks at 8.77, along with a league-worst 2.10 HR/9. House went yard yesterday and has four extra-base hits over his last six games with great BlastCon% numbers. 

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense.. This matchup is predicted to have the 3rd-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Wilyer Abreu has been lucky this year, notching a .367 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .336 — a .031 gap.. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Wilyer Abreu is in the 24th percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .230.

In a season from hell, Dylan Cease has been one of the bright spots for Toronto, sitting second in the AL in strikeouts and having gone seven strong innings in consecutive appearances, allowing just three earned runs across those outings. With Tampa Bay right-hander Griffin Jax entering this one with a 5.00 ERA, expect Toronto to find some traction on offense and cover the run line. 

The #5 ballpark in Major League Baseball for suppressing batting average to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citi Field.. Built just 13 feet above sea level, Citi Field has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which often leads to worse offense.. By putting up a 3.84 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Mark Vientos has demonstrated bad plate discipline, grading out in the 19th percentile.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Seiya Suzuki ranks as the 15th-best hitter in the league.. Seiya Suzuki is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Truist Park as the 3rd-best venue in the majors for right-handed BABIP.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation generally leads to better offense.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 2nd-most favorable for hitting of the day.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 93rd percentile when estimating his home run ability.. The #8 ballpark in baseball for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. Target Field sits at the 5th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation often leads to more offense.. Christopher Morel has big-time HR ability (93rd percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (29.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Simeon Woods Richard has a pitch-to-contact profile (12th percentile K%) — great news for Morel.. When it comes to his home runs, Christopher Morel has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His 19.6 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a good deal lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 29.4.

The Kansas City Royals lineup is loaded with right-handed bats in the middle of the order, especially the red-hot Bobby Witt Jr., but Noah Schultz isn’t your typical left-handed pitcher. The towering 6'10" lefty throws from a low three-quarter arm slot and features a sweeping slider that he can bury at the back foot of right-handed hitters. Because of that arm angle and the movement on the slider, right-handed batters often struggle to pull the ball for power against him. The only other major power threat in the lineup is Vinnie Pasquantino, who has historically struggled against left-handed pitching. On the other side, the Chicago White Sox can stack as many as seven left-handed hitters against Seth Lugo, which gives them a meaningful platoon advantage throughout the lineup. When you put all of that together, I think the White Sox should be trading closer to -125 favorites in this matchup.

Miguel Andujar is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this game.. Jacob Misiorowski will hold the platoon advantage against Miguel Andujar today.. The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest out of every team today.. Miguel Andujar will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game.. Miguel Andujar's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off lately; his 90.6-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 81.3-mph in the past 7 days.

Ezequiel Duran is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in today's game.. This year, Ezequiel Duran has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 10% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.. Globe Life Field projects as the #30 ballpark in MLB for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Batting from the same side that Ryne Nelson throws from, Ezequiel Duran will be at a disadvantage today.. In today's matchup, Ezequiel Duran is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.2% rate (83rd percentile).

The Astros have scored just four runs over their last four games. They are in miserable form at the dish and it's unlikely to get better against Bryce Miller and a strong Mariners bullpen. Seattle should score against Lance McCullers Jr., but they'll likely need a very big number to push this game Over the total.

As it relates to his home run skill, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Nolan Gorman is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. The #2 ballpark in baseball for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. In the league, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level on the schedule today at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

If Brandon Sproat can hold his own early, the Brewers will turn to an excellent bullpen that ranks fifth in xFIP and tied for third in homers allowed per nine innings.

Colder weather and Andre Pallante’s high ground-ball rate (50%) should allow the Cardinals to limit the long ball. That’ll make it difficult to score runs in bulk, helping keep this game Under the total.