PGA Championship Expert Picks 2026: Staff Predictions, Outright Odds, and Long-Shot Selections

Golf's second major of the year tees off tomorrow, with the PGA Championship happening at Aronimink Golf Club in Pennsylvania.

To help you fill out your card for this week, our golf experts are sharing their favorite PGA Championship picks for this weekend, including who they think will win, a long-shot pick with value, and who will be atop the leaderboard following Thursday's first round.

PGA Championship expert picks for 2026

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PGA Championship predictions 2026: Who will win

Esten McLaren (Content Manager): Ludvig Aberg

Nobody can keep me away from the +2000 odds for Ludvig Aberg to win the PGA Championship. The two-time winner on the PGA Tour finished in the Top 10 of five of his last six events, with the only miss being the Masters. Aberg leads the PGA Championship field with 1.48 Strokes Gained: Approach across everyone's last 12 rounds. He's been one of the field's longest hitters in that same time while gaining strokes on the greens in all but three of nine events this season.

Odds: +2000 at BetMGM

Neil Parker (Golf betting analyst): Cameron Young

Already with two wins this season, Young has also paced this field in true SG: Tee-to-green across his past seven events, while carding six Top 10s. The stretch includes a pair of wins, plus T3s in both the Arnold Palmer and the Masters. Young has also impressively ranked second in bogey avoidance and fourth in adjusted scoring average for the season.

Odds: +1200 at BetMGM

James Bisson (Head of Content, Betting): Matt Fitzpatrick

I'm not putting much stock in Fitz's T52 at the Truist Championship, as his struggles off the tee (-4.015 SG: OTT) don't reflect how well he has fared with the driver so far in 2026. He's in the top five in SG: Total on the season and already has three titles to his credit this year. He should be favored over at least three players ahead of him on the PGA Championship odds board.

Odds: +2200 at BetMGM

PGA Championship predictions 2026: Who is a sleeper at Aronimink?

McLaren: Si Woo Kim

Si Woo Kim at +6600 odds has become my favorite PGA Championship sleeper pick. He ranks in the Top 10 on Tour in bogey avoidance (9) and Par-4 scoring (5) for the season. He's in the top tier of contenders in both SG: Approach and SG: Tee-to-green. While driving accuracy isn't expected to be a key to success this week, that's another strength of Kim's, and it goes hand-in-hand with his precision iron play. The odds are far too long for someone with six Top-10 results this season — including two of his past three events.

Odds: +6600 at BetMGM

Parker: Russell Henley

Aronimink sets up perfectly for Henley's elite tee-to-green precision, which has also led to him ranking third in bogey avoidance, 11th in Par-4 scoring average, and 16th in adjusted scoring average in 2026. He’s also third in this field in true SG: Tee-to-green and fourth in driving accuracy across his past 18 events.

Odds: +5500 at BetMGM

Bisson: Si Woo Kim

Aronimink Golf Club's "push-up" greens are going to send some players into hysterics this weekend, so I want an under-the-radar play that can navigate those critical iron shots. Kim ranks fourth on tour in SG: Approach, and that's no fluke given his top-30 showing each of the prior two seasons. His putting will give you ulcers, but that's why he's a sleeper pick!

Odds: +6600 at BetMGM

PGA Championship predictions 2026: First-round leader bets

McLaren: Kristoffer Reitan

Though no two PGA Tour events are the same, we sometimes need to ride the hot hand. I'm jumping on Kristoffer Reitan to be the first-round leader of the PGA Championship following his Truist Championship win. He's jumped to No. 25 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) after winning a Signature Event. The victory was the result of 1.26 SG: Approach and 1.42 SG: Putting per round at Quail Hollow. He's gained strokes on the greens in three of his past four events, and I'm counting on the flat stick helping him start strong. There's limited tournament experience at Aronimink Golf Club, and the course isn't expected to deter low scores early in the week.

Odds: +6600 at BetMGM

Parker: Nicolai Hojgaard

The emerging Dane made 20 birdies and an eagle last week during his T2 at the Truist, while finishing third in True Strokes Gained: Tee-to-green and eighth on approaches. He's also sixth in adjusted scoring average in 2026 — and with an early Round 1 tee time Thursday, I’m expecting soft fairways and receptive greens to pave the way to a low opening round.

Odds: +6000 at BetMGM

Bisson: Scottie Scheffler

I don't know why Scheffler has started tournaments so slowly this year (77th in Round 1 scoring average) – but if anything, that makes him a super-attractive FRL play this week. The guy ranked No. 1 in first-round scoring a year ago, and still has every tool in his bag to make this tournament an early runaway. This is the best way to get a piece of Scottie in Pennsylvania.

Odds: +1600 at BetMGM

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PGA Championship favorites: Can someone top Scottie or Rory?

As is the current standard, a major championship means you have to outduel defending champion Scottie Scheffler, who is the clear favorite at +450 and the only golfer on the PGA Championship odds board shorter than 9/1. Rory McIlroy, fresh off his second straight Masters title, is next on the odds board — looking for his second consecutive major title (and third career PGA Championship).

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