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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Aug. 29, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.27 |
-105 
|
o7.5 -120 
|
-1.5 +165
|
|
4.39 |
+101 
|
u8.0 -110 
|
+1.5 -175
|
Miami
- Under is 5-0 in Alcantaras last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 8-0 in Alcantaras last 8 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Under is 5-0 in Alcantaras last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Under is 5-0 in Alcantaras last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Washington
- Nationals are 8-0 in Cavallis last 8 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Nationals are 5-0 in Cavallis last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Nationals last 8 home games.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Cavallis last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Heriberto Hernandez o0.5 Total RBIs (+202)
o0.5+210
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.52 |
+211
|
o8.5 -115 
|
+1.5 +100
|
|
5.33 |
-219
|
u9.0 -110 
|
-1.5 -105
|
Colorado
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-1 in Rockies last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 6-2 in Rockies last 8 overall.
- Under is 6-2 in Rockies last 8 games as an underdog.
Atlanta
- Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Over is 9-1 in Braves last 10 home games.
- Over is 6-1 in Braves last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 vs. National League West.
Top Projection
Mickey Moniak o0.5 Total RBIs (+250)
o0.5+270
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.12 |
+148
|
o7.5 -117 
|
+1.5 -150
|
|
4.56 |
-155
|
u8.0 -110
|
-1.5 +140
|
Kansas City
- Under is 5-0-2 in Royals last 7 overall.
- Royals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 7-0 in Lynch IVs last 7 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Royals are 8-0 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Cleveland
- Over is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 overall.
- Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a favorite.
- Under is 6-1 in Guardians last 7 overall.
Top Projection
Carter Jensen o1.5 Total Bases (+170)
o1.5+185
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.56 |
+119
|
o7.5 -120
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
4.53 |
-125
|
u8.0 -110 
|
-1.5 +170
|
San Diego
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Padres last 7 games following a loss.
- Padres are 8-0 in Buehlers last 8 interleague starts.
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
Tampa Bay
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Rays last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rays last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 7-0 in Martinezs last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Junior Caminero o0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
o0.5+150
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.97 |
+147
|
o7.5 -120
|
+1.5 -155
|
|
5.00 |
-145
|
u8.5 -130
|
-1.5 +145
|
Houston
- Over is 5-1-1 in Astros last 7 road games.
- Astros are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
- Astros are 5-1 in their last 6 games on grass.
- Under is 4-1 in Astros last 5 during game 2 of a series.
NY Mets
- Mets are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Mets last 5 during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 5-0-1 in McLeans last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mets are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Top Projection
Yordan Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
o1.5+125
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.30 |
+150
|
o8.0 -112
|
+1.5 -145
|
|
4.48 |
-155
|
u11.0 -481
|
-1.5 +136
|
Texas
- Under is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 road games.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Quantrills last 5 starts overall.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Quantrills last 4 starts as a favorite.
Milwaukee
- Under is 6-0 in Drohans last 6 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 home games.
- Under is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Wyatt Langford o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
o0.5+230
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.90 |
+126
|
o7.5 -110
|
+1.5 -175
|
|
4.85 |
-129
|
u8.0 -130
|
-1.5 +165
|
Boston
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Red Sox are 24-4 in their last 28 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-1 in Red Sox last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Red Sox are 7-2 in their last 9 games as a road underdog.
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 4-0 in Frieds last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Yankees are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. American League East.
- Under is 6-1 in Frieds last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Trent Grisham o1.5 Total Bases (+175)
o1.5+175
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.53 |
-115
|
o7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +148
|
|
3.69 |
+111
|
u8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -155
|
Arizona
- Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 4 of a series.
- Over is 4-1 in Diamondbacks last 5 road games.
- Under is 4-1 in Diamondbacks last 5 overall.
- Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
San Francisco
- Over is 5-1-1 in Giants last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Giants last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 overall.
- Giants are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Corbin Carroll o1.5 Total RBIs (+550)
o0.5+150
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.09 |
-136
|
o9.5 -110
|
-1.5 +115
|
|
4.92 |
+131
|
u10.0 -115
|
+1.5 -125
|
Baltimore
- Orioles are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-0 in Bazs last 5 starts vs. American League West.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Athletics
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 games as an underdog.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Perkins' last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Perkins' last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Perkins' last 4 starts as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Zack Gelof o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
o0.5+175
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.39 |
-229
|
o7.5 -120
|
-1.5 -130
|
|
3.10 |
+220
|
u8.0 -110
|
+1.5 +120
|
Philadelphia
- Over is 4-0-2 in Phillies last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Sanchezs last 4 starts vs. American League West.
- Phillies are 4-0 in Sanchezs last 4 starts vs. American League West.
- Under is 4-0 in Sanchezs last 4 starts during game 2 of a series.
LA Angels
- Under is 5-0 in Johnsons last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Johnsons last 5 starts on grass.
- Under is 5-0 in Johnsons last 5 starts overall.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Angels last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+145)
o0.5+145
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.24 |
-105
|
o8.5 -124
|
-1.5 +145
|
|
|
4.35 |
-102
|
u9.0 -110
|
+1.5 -170
|
Miami
- Under is 2-0-2 in Marlins last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Junks last 4 starts on grass.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Junks last 4 starts overall.
- Under is 5-1 in Marlins last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Washington
- Under is 4-0 in Alvarezs last 4 starts vs. National League East.
- Under is 4-0 in Alvarezs last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Nationals last 8 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Alvarezs last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.24 |
+193
|
o8.5 -105
|
+1.5 -115
|
|
|
5.15 |
-213
|
u8.5 -104
|
-1.5 +100
|
Colorado
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 4-1 in Rockies last 5 overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Rockies last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 4-1 in Rockies last 5 on grass.
Atlanta
- Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. National League West.
- Over is 9-1 in Braves last 10 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 vs. National League West.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.74 |
-110
|
o7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +150
|
|
|
4.32 |
+101
|
u8.0 -110
|
+1.5 -170
|
Boston
- Red Sox are 7-0 in Suarezs last 7 starts on grass.
- Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 4 of a series.
- Red Sox are 6-0 in Suarezs last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Red Sox last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
NY Yankees
- Under is 5-0 in Warrens last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Over is 6-1 in Yankees last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 4-0 in Warrens last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Warrens last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.32 |
-125
|
o7.5 -130
|
-1.5 +135
|
|
4.12 |
+115
|
u8.0 -105
|
+1.5 -154
|
Seattle
- Over is 4-0-1 in Mariners last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Mariners are 4-0 in Gilberts last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 6-1 in Mariners last 7 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 games as a favorite.
Toronto
- Under is 7-1 in Blue Jays last 8 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 7-1-1 in Blue Jays last 9 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 during game 3 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.29 |
-155
|
o7.5 -105
|
-1.5 +112
|
|
4.09 |
+147
|
u7.5 -106
|
+1.5 -120
|
LA Dodgers
- Under is 6-0 in Dodgers last 6 during game 3 of a series.
- Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
- Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Dodgers last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Detroit
- Under is 9-0 in Tigers last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 7-0 in Tigers last 7 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Tigers last 5 vs. National League West.
- Under is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 during game 3 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.03 |
+143
|
o7.0 -112
|
+1.5 -150
|
|
|
4.33 |
-153
|
u7.5 -120
|
-1.5 +140
|
San Diego
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. American League East.
- Under is 7-2 in Padres last 9 interleague games as a favorite.
Tampa Bay
- Under is 6-0-1 in Rays last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rays last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Rays are 5-0 in Rasmussens last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Rays are 5-0 in Rasmussens last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.83 |
+162
|
o7.5 -105
|
+1.5 -135
|
|
|
4.88 |
-175
|
u7.5 -104
|
-1.5 +125
|
Kansas City
- Under is 5-0-2 in Royals last 7 overall.
- Royals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite.
- Under is 2-0-3 in Lugos last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Royals are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League Central.
Cleveland
- Under is 5-0 in Messicks last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Guardians are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Messicks last 4 starts as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.84 |
+150
|
o8.5 +100
|
+1.5 -150
|
|
|
5.08 |
-160
|
u8.5 -110
|
-1.5 +136
|
Texas
- Over is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 road games.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Rockers last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in Rockers last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Milwaukee
- Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 home games.
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.16 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
4.85 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Chi. White Sox
- White Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 games as an underdog.
- White Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 overall.
Minnesota
- Under is 6-1 in Twins last 7 home games.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Twins last 6 during game 3 of a series.
- Twins are 5-0 in Matthews' last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Twins last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.60 |
-111
|
o8.0 -110
|
-1.5 +145
|
|
4.03 |
+102
|
u8.5 -130
|
+1.5 -165
|
Pittsburgh
- Under is 6-0 in Pirates last 6 road games.
- Under is 6-0 in Pirates last 6 overall.
- Over is 7-1 in Pirates last 8 during game 3 of a series.
- Pirates are 8-0 in Ashcrafts last 8 starts as a favorite.
St. Louis
- Under is 8-1-1 in Cardinals last 10 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts as a favorite.
AZ
@
SF
Sat, Aug 29 • 4:05 PM ET
Total RBIs
Rafael Devers o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.65
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Rafael Devers as the majors's 18th-best home run hitter.. Rafael Devers is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Among all parks, Oracle Park's RF dimensions are the shallowest.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for hitters.. Batting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Rafael Devers will have an edge in today's matchup.
Total RBIs
Bryce Eldridge o0.5 Total RBIs (+192)
Projection 0.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run ability, Bryce Eldridge ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryce Eldridge is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Among all parks, Oracle Park's RF dimensions are the shallowest.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for hitters.. Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Bryce Eldridge will have an advantage in today's matchup.
MIA
@
WAS
Sat, Aug 29 • 4:05 PM ET
Moneyline
MIA (-107)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Total Bases
Heriberto Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.63
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his home run ability, Heriberto Hernandez ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Heriberto Hernandez is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Nationals Park has the 5th-smallest outfield in the league — generally good for homers.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 86°.
COL
@
ATL
Sat, Aug 29 • 4:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Hunter Goodman o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.94
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Hunter Goodman projects as the 13th-best home run batter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Hunter Goodman is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Truist Park as the 4th-best field in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to right-handed hitters.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games today at 87°.
Total Bases
Austin Riley o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.59
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his home run talent, Austin Riley ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Truist Park as the 4th-best field in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to right-handed hitters.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games today at 87°.. Austin Riley hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 81st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.
KC
@
CLE
Sat, Aug 29 • 4:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Carter Jensen o1.5 Total Bases (+170)
Projection 1.51
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carter Jensen in the 86th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Carter Jensen is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.. Progressive Field profiles as the #2 stadium in Major League Baseball for LHB base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 6th-best of the day for bats.
Total Bases
Bobby Witt Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 2.03
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bobby Witt Jr. as the 2nd-best batter in the game when assessing his batting average ability.. Bobby Witt Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. The #2 park in baseball for boosting BABIP to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 6th-best of the day for bats.
SD
@
TB
Sat, Aug 29 • 4:10 PM ET
Earned Runs Allowed
Walker Buehler u2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-146)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Walker Buehler is in strong form with a 2.33 xERA over his last two starts and four straight outings under 2.5 earned runs. Tampa Bay owns an 88 wRC+ recently, while Buehler’s contact suppression gives him a clear path to another low-damage afternoon.
Total Home Runs
Jackson Merrill o0.5 Total Home Runs (+550)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Jackson Merrill has real home run appeal with three bombs in his last six games and a .522 ISO. His 57.9% air-contact profile gives him the lift needed against Martinez, who allows plenty of fly balls at home. Tampa Bay’s bullpen fly-ball rate adds another path.
HOU
@
NYM
Sat, Aug 29 • 4:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Yordan Alvarez o0.5 Total Home Runs (+344)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Yordan Alvarez owns otherworldly numbers against Nolan McLean’s pitch mix. He will primarily see sinkers, fastballs, and curveballs, and that sets up very well for the AL MVP favorite.
Alvarez has posted a .389 ISO, 18.1% barrel rate, and 60.9% hard hit rate when facing those pitches.
Total
u7.5 (+114)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Nolan McLean has allowed two runs or fewer in all 12 starts against teams who ranked Bottom-10 in xwOBA their last 20 games.
Both teams have Top-10 bullpens by wOBA in August so we shouldn’t expect much fireworks late.
If Christian Javier avoids an early blow-up, there’s a clean path to an Under.
TEX
@
MIL
Sat, Aug 29 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jake Burger o0.5 Total Home Runs (+510)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Jake Burger crushes left-handed pitching, posting an OPS exactly .200 points higher than against righties.
Shane Drohan doesn’t really have one go-to pitch, throwing five different types more than 10% of the time vs. right-handed bats.
Burger is well-equipped to handle that variety. He has managed a .250 ISO or higher vs. four of the five pitches, only struggling against curveballs.
Total
u8.5 (-116)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
It isn’t always pretty, but Shane Drohan is effective at limiting the damage in Milwaukee. He has only conceded 3+ runs in four of 17 home starts this season.
Cal Quantrill ranks in the 84th percentile in walk rate and has allowed 0.86 HR/9 in pitcher-friendly environments.
That should allow him to avoid big innings, setting up nicely for an Under.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Ben Rice o0.5 Total Home Runs (+450)
Chris Hatfield
Betting Analyst
I like Ben Rice. Bello throws his sinker 40.5% of the time, which lines up well with Rice’s strongest contact profile. Rice owns a .505 xSLG and 51.4% hard-hit rate against sinkers this season.
Additionally, the Boston arm also ranks in the 25th percentile in barrel suppression, so there’s a clear path for Rice to turn one elevated sinker into damage. His left-handed pull power only makes that matchup more appealing at Yankee Stadium.
Moneyline
NYY (-132)
Chris Hatfield
Betting Analyst
Max Fried owns a 2.81 ERA and has been one of baseball’s best pitchers at preventing damaging contact. He ranks in the 89th percentile in xERA, 99th percentile in barrel rate allowed, and 92nd percentile in hard-hit rate allowed. The Boston Red Sox have not been producing the type of contact that typically breaks that profile. Its recent batted-ball numbers have generally hovered around league average or worse, while Fried can also force the issue on the ground with an 83rd-percentile ground-ball rate.
The Red Sox expected bulk option of Brayan Bello has a much more vulnerable profile. Bello ranks in just the 7th percentile in xERA, 25th percentile in barrel suppression, and 37th percentile in hard-hit suppression. I think this has value to 60% with a better overall team who has a good matchup.
AZ
@
SF
Sat, Aug 29 • 10:05 PM ET
Total RBIs
Corbin Carroll o1.5 Total RBIs (+550)
Projection 0.59
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Corbin Carroll in the 97th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Corbin Carroll is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Corbin Carroll will hold the platoon advantage over Matt Wilkinson in today's game... and even better, Wilkinson has a large platoon split.. Corbin Carroll pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.8% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.. Among all the teams today, the 4th-worst infield defense belongs to the San Francisco Giants.
BAL
@
ATH
Sat, Aug 29 • 10:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Jackson Holliday o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 1.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Jackson Holliday's BABIP skill is projected in the 88th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jackson Holliday has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (69% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #1 field in MLB for boosting home runs to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. Sutter Health Park has the 3rd-lowest fences in Major League Baseball.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather on the slate today at 95°.
Total Bases
Max Muncy u1.5 Total Bases (-190)
Projection 0.94
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Max Muncy is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this matchup.. Shane Baz will hold the platoon advantage over Max Muncy in today's matchup.. Max Muncy pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.4% — 89th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's game.
PHI
@
LAA
Sat, Aug 29 • 10:07 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Kyle Schwarber o0.5 Total Home Runs (+216)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Kyle Schwarber hits for power in waves. With three homers in his last six games, it appears he’s heading toward another heater.
He is in a great spot to deal damage against Ryan Johnson. Isolating his three most-used pitches when facing left-handed bats, Schwarber owns a 25% barrel rate over the last 25 games.
Spread
PHI -1.5 (-131)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
The Los Angeles Angels have hit .217 with a .097 ISO against lefties in August, and it’s hard to imagine things getting any better facing Cristopher Sanchez.
He has posted a 2.12 ERA, 2.46 xFIP, and punched out more than 30% of opposing batters the last month.
The Philadelphia Phillies rank third in xwOBA vs. right-handed pitching this month, and Ryan Johnson is an unlikely candidate to stop them.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
Total
o7.5 (-116)
Pick made: 2 months ago
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Moneyline
SF (+124)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
DET
@
CLE
Fri, Sep 4 • 2:10 PM ET
Total Bases
David Fry u1.5 Total Bases (-250)
Projection 0.57
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
David Fry is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.. Progressive Field has the 4th-tallest fences in the league.. Batting from the same side that Casey Mize throws from, David Fry will not have the upper hand today.
Total Bases
Riley Greene o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.66
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Riley Greene in the 97th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. Riley Greene is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Progressive Field projects as the #3 stadium in the game for LHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Progressive Field has the 6th-shallowest right field fences in the majors.. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate at 86%.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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More MLB Picks & Betting Tools
NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
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Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
