It’s rebound day after a couple of donuts last night, and Aaron Judge drawing walks instead of swinging for the fences is a tough way to lose a home run ticket. Having several fly-ball pitchers working in windy conditions today creates plenty to like across the MLB player prop market.
Lefty vs. lefty isn't always a good place to look for a dinger, but it is today with Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Oneil Cruz stepping in against Jose Quintana.
Add him to the card featuring Hunter Goodman and Brady House, and we've got a home run stew going.
These are my favorite MLB home run predictions for Wednesday, May 13.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Hunter Goodman |
+405 |
 Brady House |
+620 |
 Oneil Cruz |
+425 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +15650 |
Home run pick: Hunter Goodman (+405)
I love this game for runs. We’ve got double-digit winds blowing out, two fly-ball starters, and a pair of beat-up bullpens. Hunter Goodman has the best home run upside in this matchup and has already taken Mitch Keller deep in a small three-at-bat sample.
Goodman leads the Colorado Rockies in swing speed and BlastContact% over the last two weeks while also posting the second-best IdealAttackAngle%. I like him in this spot more than Mickey Moniak at the shorter price.
Keller hasn’t allowed many home runs, but he’s been a bit fortunate and isn’t a true ground-ball pitcher. He’ll also eventually hand things off to a bullpen carrying a 6.82 ERA over the last two weeks. Goodman, a lucky pitcher, a bad bullpen, and strong winds are all checking boxes for our MLB picks today.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNet Pittsburgh, Rockies.TV
Home run pick: Brady House (+620)
Brady House might not be a household name yet, but he’s hitting in the middle of the Washington Nationals lineup from the right side and gets a strong matchup today against lefty Nick Lodolo, who was roughed up in his first start back last week while continuing to see his fly-ball rate climb.
If Lodolo can’t keep the ball on the ground, it could be a short outing with 14-mph winds blowing out to center field. Returning from the blister that sidelined him, Lodolo surrendered two home runs while recording just 16 outs last week and threw only 78 pitches.
That could mean plenty of innings for a Cincinnati Reds bullpen that owns the worst ERA in baseball over the last two weeks at 8.77, along with a league-worst 2.10 HR/9.
House went yard yesterday and has four extra-base hits over his last six games with great BlastCon% numbers.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Nationals.TV, Reds.TV
Home run pick: Oneil Cruz (+425)
I’m getting a great price on one of the best home run hitters in the game with Oneil Cruz facing fellow lefty Jose Quintana, which is likely why this number is sitting north of +400. Cruz has crushed left-handed pitching this season with a .985 OPS and four home runs.
Quintana has actually allowed more damage to left-handed hitters this year, and with his short leash at roughly 81 pitches per start, a weak Rockies bullpen is likely going to be asked to keep the ball in the park with 13-mph winds blowing out to center field. I’ll take the lefty-on-lefty discount.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNet Pittsburgh, Rockies.TV
- HR picks: 13-69, -1.94 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Hunter Goodman |
Bet Now +15650 |
| Brady House |
|
| Oneil Cruz |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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