It’s rebound day after a couple of donuts last night, and Aaron Judge drawing walks instead of swinging for the fences is a tough way to lose a home run ticket. Having several fly-ball pitchers working in windy conditions today creates plenty to like across the MLB player prop market.
I’m going back to Hunter Goodman, who has treated me well this season and gets another strong home run environment. I also want to bet against the Cincinnati Reds bullpen with the wind blowing out and some young power bats emerging in the Washington Nationals lineup.
These are my favorite MLB home run predictions for Wednesday, May 13.
Best MLB home run props today
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Hunter Goodman 
Brady House
Home run pick: Hunter Goodman (+400)
I love this game for runs. We’ve got double-digit winds blowing out, two fly-ball starters, and a pair of beat-up bullpens. Hunter Goodman has the best home run upside in this matchup and has already taken Mitch Keller deep in a small three-at-bat sample.
Goodman leads the Colorado Rockies in swing speed and BlastContact% over the last two weeks while also posting the second-best IdealAttackAngle%. I like him in this spot more than Mickey Moniak at the shorter price.
Keller hasn’t allowed many home runs, but he’s been a bit fortunate and isn’t a true ground-ball pitcher. He’ll also eventually hand things off to a bullpen carrying a 6.82 ERA over the last two weeks. Goodman, a lucky pitcher, a bad bullpen, and strong winds are all checking boxes for our MLB picks today.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNet Pittsburgh, Rockies.TV
Home run pick: Brady House (+620)
Brady House might not be a household name yet, but he’s hitting in the middle of the Washington Nationals lineup from the right side and gets a strong matchup today against lefty Nick Lodolo, who was roughed up in his first start back last week while continuing to see his fly-ball rate climb.
If Lodolo can’t keep the ball on the ground, it could be a short outing with 14-mph winds blowing out to center field. Returning from the blister that sidelined him, Lodolo surrendered two home runs while recording just 16 outs last week and threw only 78 pitches.
That could mean plenty of innings for a Cincinnati Reds bullpen that owns the worst ERA in baseball over the last two weeks at 8.77, along with a league-worst 2.10 HR/9.
House went yard yesterday and has four extra-base hits over his last six games with great BlastCon% numbers.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Nationals.TV, Reds.TV
- HR picks: 13-69, -1.94 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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