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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 19, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.49 |
+116 
|
o8.0 -117 
|
+1.5 -185 
|
|
4.62 |
-134
|
u8.5 -120 
|
-1.5 +164
|
Detroit
- Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Jobes last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Jobes last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 10-1 in Tigers last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
Chi. White Sox
- White Sox are 7-0 in Burkes last 7 starts with 4 days of rest.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Burkes last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 5-0 in Burkes last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- White Sox are 4-0 in Burkes last 4 starts vs. American League Central.
Top Projection
Munetaka Murakami o0.5 Total RBIs (+177)
o0.5+177
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.18 |
-130 
|
o7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +134
|
|
3.95 |
+112 
|
u8.5 -128
|
+1.5 -150
|
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. American League East.
- Brewers are 5-0 in Gassers last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Baltimore
- Over is 5-0 in Rogers' last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 vs. National League Central.
Top Projection
Joey Ortiz u0.5 Total Hits (+190)
u0.5+190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.68 |
+105
|
o7.5 -125
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
4.53 |
-120
|
u8.5 -125 
|
-1.5 +170
|
Philadelphia
- Over is 5-0 in Painters last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Painters last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 4-0 in Painters last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Painters last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
NY Mets
- Under is 6-0-1 in Scotts last 7 starts as a favorite.
- Mets are 6-0 in Scotts last 6 starts as a home favorite.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Scotts last 7 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Scotts last 5 starts as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+184)
o0.5+200
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.50 |
+116
|
o7.5 -105
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
3.84 |
-130
|
u7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +172
|
Boston
- Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League East.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 8-0 in Red Sox last 8 games following a win.
- Under is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Tampa Bay
- Over is 5-0 in Peraltas last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Rays are 4-0 in Peraltas last 4 starts.
- Rays are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Rays are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Junior Caminero o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
o0.5+180
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.86 |
+155
|
o8.0 -120
|
+1.5 -139
|
|
4.37 |
-178
|
u8.5 -118
|
-1.5 +130
|
Athletics
- Over is 3-0-1 in last 4 on grass.
- are 5-1 in Lopezs last 6 starts as an underdog.
- are 5-1 in Lopezs last 6 starts on grass.
- are 8-2 in Lopezs last 10 starts during game 2 of a series.
Cleveland
- Over is 4-0-1 in Guardians last 5 overall.
- Guardians are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League West.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Guardians last 5 on grass.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Guardians last 4 home games.
Top Projection
Lawrence Butler o0.5 Total RBIs (+247)
o0.5+247
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.64 |
+100
|
o8.0 -114
|
-1.5 +165 
|
|
4.38 |
-107
|
u8.5 -118
|
+1.5 -182
|
Kansas City
- Over is 6-0-1 in Royals last 7 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Camerons last 6 interleague starts.
- Under is 4-0 in Royals last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 8-1 in Royals last 9 games as an underdog.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 4-0-2 in Chandlers last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Chandlers last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Chandlers last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Pirates are 4-0 in Chandlers last 4 starts as a home underdog.
Top Projection
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
o0.5+195
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.43 |
-134
|
o9.5 -108
|
-1.5 +122
|
|
4.89 |
+120
|
u9.5 -105
|
+1.5 -136
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 9-1-1 in Cubs last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-1 in Boyds last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Boyds last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 4-1 in Boyds last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Lodolos last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Lodolos last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Lodolos last 4 starts as a home underdog.
Top Projection
Eugenio Suarez o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+100)
o1.5+100
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.36 |
-120 
|
o8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +145
|
|
3.74 |
+105
|
u8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -165
|
Toronto
- Over is 4-0 in Sorianos last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 overall.
- Blue Jays are 7-1 in their last 8 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 games as a favorite.
Texas
- Over is 8-0 in Rangers last 8 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Rangers last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Quantrills last 4 starts as a favorite.
Top Projection
Corey Seager o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
o0.5+190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.81 |
+100
|
o8.5 -105
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
5.01 |
-115
|
u8.5 -114
|
-1.5 +160
|
Atlanta
- Over is 6-0-1 in Braves last 7 overall.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Braves last 7 on grass.
- Over is 6-0 in Braves last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-0 in Holmes' last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Houston
- Under is 7-0 in Astros last 7 games as a favorite.
- Under is 7-0 in Astros last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Astros are 6-0 in Wesneskis last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Astros last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Christian Walker o0.5 Total RBIs (+209)
o0.5+209
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.78 |
+111
|
o8.5 -117
|
+1.5 -185
|
|
4.26 |
-125
|
u9.0 -125
|
-1.5 +172
|
Washington
- Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Nationals are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Alvarezs last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-1 in Alvarezs last 7 starts as a road underdog.
St. Louis
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cardinals last 5 vs. National League East.
- Over is 7-0-1 in Cardinals last 8 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in McGreevys last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in McGreevys last 4 starts vs. National League East.
Top Projection
James Wood o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
o1.5+140
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.55 |
-155
|
o10.5 -120
|
-1.5 +100
|
|
5.44 |
+140
|
u11.0 -115
|
+1.5 -110
|
Seattle
- Over is 6-0-1 in Millers last 7 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Millers last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 6-0 in Millers last 6 road starts.
- Over is 4-0 in Millers last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
Colorado
- Under is 3-0-1 in Hughes' last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 7-1 in Rockies last 8 home games.
- Over is 6-1-2 in Rockies last 9 overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.12 |
-138
|
o7.0 -137
|
-1.5 +126
|
|
4.32 |
+125
|
u7.5 -118
|
+1.5 -143
|
NY Yankees
- Over is 4-0-1 in Yankees last 5 road games.
- Yankees are 5-0 in Schlittlers last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Yankees are 5-0 in Schlittlers last 5 starts on grass.
- Under is 6-0-2 in Yankees last 8 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Arizona
- Over is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 vs. American League East.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Diamondbacks are 8-1 in Pfaadts last 9 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Top Projection
Pavin Smith o0.5 Total RBIs (+347)
o0.5+375
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.19 |
+132
|
o7.5 -115
|
+1.5 -164
|
|
4.31 |
-150
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +141
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Perezs last 6 starts as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Perezs last 4 starts vs. National League West.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a road favorite.
San Diego
- Over is 9-0 in Padres last 9 games following a win.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Griffin Conine o0.5 Total RBIs (+219)
o0.5+219
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.73 |
+280
|
o6.5 -150
|
+2.5 -125
|
|
4.70 |
-340
|
u7.5 -135
|
-2.5 +110
|
San Francisco
- Over is 6-0-1 in Giants last 7 vs. National League West.
- Over is 7-0-1 in Giants last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 7-1-2 in Giants last 10 games following a loss.
LA Dodgers
- Under is 5-0 in Skubals last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in Skubals last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Skubals last 5 starts on grass.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in Skubals last 5 starts on grass.
Top Projection
Kyle Tucker o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-120)
o1.5-115
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.91 |
-108
|
o7.0 -120
|
+1.5 -210
|
|
3.80 |
-108
|
u7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +180
|
Minnesota
- Over is 6-0 in Ryans last 6 starts as a road favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Ryans last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-0 in Twins last 7 games following a win.
- Over is 5-0 in Twins last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
LA Angels
- Over is 4-0 in Angels last 4 games following a loss.
- Under is 4-0 in Detmers' last 4 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 7-1 in Detmers' last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-1 in Angels last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Joe Ryan o8.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+475)
o5.5-150
DET
@
CHW
Sat, Sep 19 • 2:10 PM ET
Moneyline
DET (+116)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Chicago’s hitters are offering little resistance down the stretch, batting .211 with a brutal 28.7% strikeout rate over the last fourteen days. Meanwhile, Detroit’s relief corps has turned into an absolute buzzsaw, dialing up a microscopic 2.01 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 1.84 BB/9.
Jackson Jobe brings lethal stuff to the hill against an unannounced South Side arm, setting up Detroit as an exceptional plus-money look.
Total RBIs
Andrew Benintendi o0.5 Total RBIs (+215)
Projection 0.45
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Andrew Benintendi is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. Guaranteed Rate Field grades out as the #6 field in the game for overall left-handed offense, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Andrew Benintendi will hold the platoon advantage over Jackson Jobe in today's game.. Andrew Benintendi pulls many of his flyballs (37.9% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest RF fences today.. Out of every team today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the Detroit Tigers.
MIL
@
BAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 4:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Pete Alonso o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Projection 1.75
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Pete Alonso ranks as the 15th-best batter in the game.. Pete Alonso is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 5th-most favorable for hitting on the slate.. Pete Alonso will hold the platoon advantage against Robert Gasser in today's game... and the cherry on top, Gasser has a large platoon split.. Pete Alonso has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
Total Hits
Joey Ortiz u0.5 Total Hits (+190)
Projection 0.85
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Joey Ortiz is penciled in 6th in the lineup today.. 13% of the time that Joey Ortiz has started against a left-handed pitcher this year, he has been pinch hit for.. Joey Ortiz will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup.. Joey Ortiz's launch angle this season (6.3°) is quite a bit lower than his 13.8° mark last year.. Joey Ortiz has been lucky this year, putting up a .319 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .301 — a .018 deviation.
PHI
@
NYM
Sat, Sep 19 • 4:10 PM ET
Earned Runs Allowed
Andrew Painter u2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-130)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to -140. Andrew Painter has been in strong form, posting a 2.93 FIP over the last month while limiting opponents to a 33.7% hard-hit rate. The Mets enter with just an 81 wRC+ over the last week, and Painter has surrendered only one earned run across his last two road starts.
Total Bases
Francisco Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (+230)
Projection 1.22
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run ability, Francisco Alvarez ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Francisco Alvarez hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Francisco Alvarez will hold that advantage today.. Francisco Alvarez has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 103.1-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal figure of 96.4-mph.
BOS
@
TB
Sat, Sep 19 • 4:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Junior Caminero o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.91
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Junior Caminero ranks as the 16th-best batter in Major League Baseball.. Junior Caminero is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. The #2 ballpark in baseball for boosting home runs to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.. Junior Caminero will have the handedness advantage over Payton Tolle today.. Junior Caminero pulls many of his flyballs (38.9% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.
Total Bases
Jarren Duran o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
Projection 1.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 77th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. Tropicana Field grades out as the #2 stadium in the game for lefty home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Jarren Duran will hold the platoon advantage over Freddy Peralta in today's matchup.. The Tampa Bay Rays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jarren Duran stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.. Jarren Duran has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
ATH
@
CLE
Sat, Sep 19 • 6:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Lawrence Butler o1.5 Total Bases (+167)
Projection 1.55
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Lawrence Butler has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (59% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. Progressive Field ranks as the #2 field in the majors for left-handed base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. Lawrence Butler will have the handedness advantage over Tanner Bibee today.. Lawrence Butler has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Zack Gelof o1.5 Total Bases (+160)
Projection 1.57
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zack Gelof in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. Zack Gelof is penciled in 4th in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.. The #2 ballpark in the league for boosting base hits to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. Zack Gelof has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 10% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the past two weeks.
KC
@
PIT
Sat, Sep 19 • 6:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
Projection 0.67
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as Major League Baseball's 18th-best home run batter.. Oneil Cruz is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Oneil Cruz will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. Oneil Cruz has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 106.5-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal average of 98.2-mph.. With a 28.100 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season , Oneil Cruz is ranked in the 84th percentile for power.
Total RBIs
Bobby Witt Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.6
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his batting average skill, Bobby Witt Jr. is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bobby Witt Jr. is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense profiles as the weakest among every team in action today.. Bobby Witt Jr. has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.2-mph to 94.9-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games.. Despite posting a .342 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Bobby Witt Jr. has had some very poor luck given the .035 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .377.
CHC
@
CIN
Sat, Sep 19 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Alex Bregman o0.5 Total Home Runs (+406)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 21%. Alex Bregman is in excellent form, combining two homers over his last six games with a .550 ISO and plenty of lift. Nick Lodolo has surrendered 2.08 HR/9 across his previous two starts, while Cincinnati’s bullpen has also struggled to suppress power. Bregman is appealing at this price.
Total Bases
Dane Myers o1.5 Total Bases (+133)
Projection 1.65
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dane Myers in the 81st percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. Dane Myers is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.. Great American Ball Park projects as the #4 ballpark in the game for right-handed home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Batting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Dane Myers will have an advantage in today's matchup.
TOR
@
TEX
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:05 PM ET
Total RBIs
Brandon Nimmo o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.5
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Nimmo in the 94th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.. Brandon Nimmo is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today.. Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height in the majors.. Brandon Nimmo will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against José Soriano today.. Brandon Nimmo will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.
Total Hits
Corey Seager u0.5 Total Hits (+190)
Projection 0.89
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Globe Life Field projects as the #29 ballpark in the league for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 6th-deepest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums are found in Globe Life Field.. The Globe Life Field roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this game -6° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching.. In the last week, Corey Seager's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 14.6% down to 5.6%.. Over the last week, Corey Seager's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal figure of 94.7 mph to 88.9 mph.
ATL
@
HOU
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:10 PM ET
Moneyline
ATL (+102)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Atlanta’s offensive output has evaporated over the last two weeks, slipping to 26th overall with an 84 wRC+ and a meager .291 OBP, while their arms are getting hurt by the long ball (1.74 HR/9).
Houston is generating far more raw power right now (.210 ISO, 105 wRC+). Hayden Wesneski should outduel Grant Holmes in what essentially profiles as a pick’em spot for the Astros.
Total Bases
Christian Walker o1.5 Total Bases (+190)
Projection 1.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run talent, Christian Walker ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. In the league, Minute Maid Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Christian Walker will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.3°, Christian Walker has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 22.6° mark over the past 14 days.. Sporting a 26.400 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season , Christian Walker grades out in the 78th percentile for power.
WAS
@
STL
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Dylan Crews o1.5 Total Bases (+154)
Projection 1.55
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Among all major league parks, Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the highest temperatures of all games today at 95°.. Dylan Crews hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.7% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst among every team today.. Dylan Crews has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 9.4% seasonal rate to 15.4% over the last week.
Total RBIs
James Wood o0.5 Total RBIs (+198)
Projection 0.6
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his BABIP skill, James Wood is projected as the 3rd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. James Wood is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. Among all major league parks, Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the highest temperatures of all games today at 95°.. James Wood will hold the platoon advantage against Michael McGreevy today.
NYY
@
AZ
Sat, Sep 19 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Cody Bellinger o0.5 Total Home Runs (+539)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 20%. Cody Bellinger’s power has taken off lately, with three homers over his last six games and a .360 ISO. He’s also elevating the ball consistently, while Brandon Pfaadt has allowed plenty of hard contact and 1.72 HR/9 recently. At 15%, Bellinger offers worthwhile upside in Arizona.
Total Bases
Cody Bellinger o1.5 Total Bases (+112)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play down to +100. Cody Bellinger is swinging a scorching bat, hitting .440 over his last six games with three homers and a .360 ISO. Brandon Pfaadt has struggled recently, allowing nine earned runs over his last two starts with a 50% hard-hit rate. Bellinger is in a strong spot to keep producing.
MIA
@
SD
Sat, Sep 19 • 8:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Fernando Tatis Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+319)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 25%. Fernando Tatis Jr. is finally showing the power expected from him, going deep three times over the last week with a .414 ISO. His hard-hit and barrel numbers are climbing, and Eury Perez has struggled badly with home runs lately. Miami’s bullpen gives Tatis another favorable path to a long ball.
Total Bases
Heriberto Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.72
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heriberto Hernandez in the 93rd percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Heriberto Hernandez is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. In the league, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Humid weather has a small but significant link with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-highest humidity on the slate at 79%.. Heriberto Hernandez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.
SF
@
LAD
Sat, Sep 19 • 9:10 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Kyle Tucker o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-120)
Projection 2.24
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Kyle Tucker ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Kyle Tucker is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Dodger Stadium as the 3rd-best stadium in the majors for lefty home runs.. Among all stadiums, Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. This game is predicted to have the 13th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.
MIN
@
LAA
Sat, Sep 19 • 9:38 PM ET
Total Bases
Josh Lowe o1.5 Total Bases (+225)
Projection 1.31
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Lowe in the 77th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Angel Stadium has the 2nd-lowest fences in Major League Baseball.. Considering Joe Ryan's large platoon split, Josh Lowe will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest out of all the teams in action today.. Josh Lowe will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.
Total Bases
Mike Trout u1.5 Total Bases (-210)
Projection 0.79
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Angel Stadium profiles as the #28 stadium in the majors for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Because of Joe Ryan's large platoon split, Mike Trout will be at a huge disadvantage batting from the same side of the dish in today's game.. Extreme flyball batters like Mike Trout tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Joe Ryan.
TB
@
NYY
Tue, Sep 22 • 1:05 PM ET
Total RBIs
Austin Wells o0.5 Total RBIs (+305)
Projection 0.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Yankee Stadium ranks as the #7 ballpark in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Austin Wells will have an edge in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball batters like Austin Wells generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among every team on the slate today.
Total RBIs
Cody Bellinger o0.5 Total RBIs (+206)
Projection 0.55
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cody Bellinger in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Cody Bellinger is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Yankee Stadium ranks as the #7 ballpark in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Cody Bellinger will have an edge in today's game.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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More MLB Picks & Betting Tools
NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
What kinds of MLB picks do we make?
Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
