MLB Picks

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, CJ Abrams ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. CJ Abrams is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Progressive Field as the 4th-best field in baseball for left-handed BABIP.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which generally leads to better offense.. CJ Abrams pulls many of his flyballs (35.1% — 83rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Shane Baz was fortunate to escape with only one run allowed over six frames when he faced the Rays last week. Tampa is tops in the majors in OPS over the last two weeks, and Baz is in the 15th percentile in pitching run value this year.

When it comes to his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Jordan Wicks in the 20th percentile among all starters in the league.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Wicks to throw 74 pitches in this game (4th-least on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. Shane Livensparger grades out as a Huge Hitters Umpire and is anticipated to be umping today.. Carson Kelly, the Cubs's expected catcher in today's matchup, grades out as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. PNC Park grades out as the #26 venue in the game for strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Colt Keith has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (95% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today's game.. This year, Colt Keith has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 44% of his appearances when starting against right-handed pitcher.. Comerica Park ranks as the #21 park in baseball for lefty base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 2nd-deepest CF dimensions in Major League Baseball are found in Comerica Park.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for hurlers.

The Red Sox offense isn't cashing in its baserunners, and Braves starting pitcher Spencer Strider will make that doubly difficult, as the right-hander is rounding back into form. Take the Braves up to -125.

Brett Baty is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game.. Among all major league parks, Citi Field's CF fences are the shallowest.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for batters.. Brett Baty will hold the platoon advantage over Chase Burns in today's game.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Brett Baty will hold that advantage in today's game.

Cam Schlittler owns a 2.60 expected ERA, top 9% of MLB, and he forces hitters into mistakes with a 95th percentile chase rate. The path against him is discipline plus loud contact, but the Kansas City Royals don’t profile that way. They are average in barrel rate at 8.5% and chase rate at 30.2%. Against a starter with few obvious holes, average is not enough. Playable to -144.

Michael McGreevy's playing with fire, and his 2.40 ERA is a mirage. The Brewers might BABIP him to death, and with Kyle Harrison on the opposite mound, Milwaukee wins by at least a couple of runs.

Sean Burke allowed 12 earned runs over his last three starts and posted a 5.40 xFIP during that stretch. He'll have a hard time slowing down a Minnesota Twins lineup that sits fifth in ISO and sixth in wOBA against right-handed pitching away from Target Field.

The Astros own a .290 wOBA, .652 OPS, and 35.1% hard hit rate over their last six games. 

Despite getting no-hit Monday, the Rangers have fared better in each category over the same period. They are sporting a .333 wOBA, .757 OPS, and 39.4% hard hit rate.

With a pitching advantage to boot, they should rebound Tuesday night.

Sutter Health Park is once again grading as the best home run environment on the slate today, per Ballpark Pal. The wind is blowing out, and the pitching matchup is better than it may look at first glance, as Luis Severino has been hit hard there and the splits back it up. The Athletics starter owns a 2.2 HR/9 in Sacramento compared to just 0.94 HR/9 on the road. Randy Arozarena at +600 is my target with a fair price of +530, per the projections at Covers. The right-handed hitter ranks 10th in slugging and 15th in BlastContact% over the last 14 days and is one of just six hitters inside the Top 15 in both categories during that stretch.

The San Diego Padres are in a favorable bounce-back spot against Aaron Nola, who owns a 6.04 ERA and has allowed 13 earned runs across his last three starts. Randy Vasquez has been reliable at home, while Philadelphia’s offense has cooled off significantly.

When estimating his home run ability, Casey Schmitt ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Casey Schmitt is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 20.7-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for batters.. Casey Schmitt will have the handedness advantage against Eduardo Rodriguez in today's matchup.. Casey Schmitt will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Both teams are trending to the Under as the Rockies are 13-17 O/U on the road and the Dodgers are 10-16 O/U at home. Kyle Freeland is better away from Coors (13.6 K-BB%), while the Dodgers can use Eric Lauer for a few innings against an impotent lineup against LHP before relying on a stingy bullpen (2.46 FIP this month).

Reds starter Brady Singer has allowed three dingers in two straight starts, and 2+ homers in four of his last five. Jordan Walker has gone yard in two straight games and has feasted on right-handed pitching, batting .311 with 11 of his 15 home runs vs. righties.

Rasmussen has been a New York Yankees nightmare, posting a 1.03 ERA across eight career outings against the Bronx Bombers. This type of stat is meaningless without context, and we have it here. He's been able to do this because the Yankees are constantly reliant on their power, and Rasmussen is one of the best barrel suppression arms in baseball, sitting in the 96th percentile in such rates this season. Playbale to +100.