This is the week that I get back into the black after a great run across August with MLB player props and cashing home run predictions, and what better day to go big than on Dinger Tuesday.
How does one leave Pete Crow-Armstrong off the home run card after last night’s performance, and with today’s matchup? Meanwhile, Wilyer Abreu is the unstoppable force, and Merrill Kelly is the movable object.
These are my favorite MLB home run predictions for Tuesday, Aug. 18.
Best MLB home run props today
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Pete Crow-Armstrong
Wilyer Abreu 
Home run pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong
I don't mind going chalk when that chalk is MVP betting favorite Pete Crow-Armstrong, who just hit a walk-off extra-inning dinger last night to reach the 30/30 mark and is being priced on the good side of $3. PCA should be shorter than +300 in any matchup that isn't against an elite starter.
Today is anything but an elite starter, as the White Sox are going with lefty opener Bryan Hutson before handing things over to right-hander Erick Fedde, who just lost his rotation spot and is one of the hardest-hit pitchers in baseball, ranking 37th-worst in HardHit% among MLB starters and 21st-worst in Blast Contact%.
The wind is blowing out at Wrigley, and PCA will see some very hittable arms to keep padding those MVP numbers.
He is a buy to +290 today.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: TBS
Home run pick: Wilyer Abreu (+425)
It's tough to find a hotter hitter this month than Boston's Wilyer Abreu. The lefty bat leads the league in slugging and xwOBA in August, and sits second in ISO. The HardHit% over that stretch is at a Dinger-sexy 62.5%, which is only behind three other hitters. The form is there, and the matchup is the deciding factor.
Merrill Kelly has been hit hard all season and ranks in the Bottom 25 in HR/FB and HR/9 among MLB starters. He is one of a handful of pitchers who rank in the Bottom 25 in all four of my favorite fade categories: HR/9, HR/FB, HardHit%, and BlastCont%.
It's a great price in an average matchup, but this is elite form vs. a hard-hit pitcher and a number I'd buy to +350.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NESN, DBACKS.TV
- HR picks: 31-153, -3.37 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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