I'm on the MLB player prop beat today and targeting three plays with huge expected value upside. Carlos Rodon will be on a pitch count in his first game back, and it might not be enough to hit his Over K prop.
Meanwhile, Cal Quantrill's leash is also not fully priced in after rejoining the rotation, and Nick Martinez is coming off a season-high in pitches.
These are my MLB picks featuring pitcher props for Tuesday, Aug. 18.
Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Carlos Rodon |
Under 4.5 strikeouts | +127 |
 Cal Quantrill |
Over 3.5 strikeouts | -110 |
 Nick Martinez |
Under 17.5 outs | +129 |
Strikeout prop: Carlos Rodon Under 4.5 strikeouts (+127)
- Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, YES
Strikeout prop: Cal Quantrill Over 3.5 strikeouts (-110)
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rangers Sports Network, Nationals.TV
Pitcher outs prop: Nick Martinez Under 17.5 outs (+129)
Nick Martinez is coming off a hefty 101-pitch complete game, well above his season averages. The Rays SP was averaging just 81.5 pitches per start over his previous 10 outings before the 27-out performance.
Only once during that 10-game stretch had Martinez thrown more than 85 pitches.
The Jays are playing winning baseball right now and are a low-K team that can force Martinez to work. Toronto has also seen him twice already this season, giving them a familiarity edge.
The projections are calling for 85 pitches and fewer than 17 outs, and that doesn't account for the season-high workload from his last start.
The break-even price is -110 here.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rays.TV, Sportsnet
- Prop picks: 14-15, -0.19 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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