We may be in the dog days of summer, but there is a full slate of baseball waiting for us, so it can't be all bad!
Today's MLB expert picks offer a trio of moneyline predictions, including the underdog Miami Marlins as an upset special over Zack Wheeler and the Philadelphia Phillies.
It's part of our full set of MLB picks on Tuesday, Aug. 18.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: TOR ML |
+122 |
 Jon Metler: MIA ML |
+203 |
 Dustin Saracini: NYM/SD u8.5 |
+100 |
 Joe Osborne: MIL ML |
-150 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Blue Jays moneyline
Price: 45¢ (+122) at Polymarket
The Toronto Blue Jays finally had a day off yesterday after a stretch of 17 straight games. Over that stretch, Toronto posted the best team ERA in baseball and went 11-6 straight up against some of MLB's best teams.
THE BAT has the Jays as a 56-cent favorite, but they’re trading at just 45 cents, making this the best +EV play on the board today, according to the projection.
The Jays also have a rested bullpen, while the Tampa Bay Rays could be down two arms, including closer Bryan Baker, who threw 21 pitches yesterday and has pitched in two of the last three days. Their best lefty, Cam Booser, is also unavailable.
Even with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on the shelf, Toronto can still win this game on pitching alone.
Nick Martinez is coming off a 101-pitch complete game, his season high, which could affect his efficiency today. Jose Soriano has also looked good since coming over from the Halos.
Dustin Saracini has a full preview of the action with his Blue Jays vs. Rays predictions.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Sportsnet, Rays.TV
Jon Metler's expert pick: Marlins moneyline
Price: 33¢ (+203) at Polymarket
Fading the Philadelphia Phillies with Zack Wheeler on the mound is never an easy sell, but this matchup sets up well for the Miami Marlins.
Wheeler will make it difficult to string together big innings, so Miami needs to find creative ways to manufacture runs. That means working counts, driving up Wheeler's pitch count, forcing an early move to the bullpen, creating pressure on the basepaths, and using contact plays and hit-and-runs.
The good news is that none of this is outside Miami's offensive identity.
The Marlins don't need to rely on big swings or home runs to score. They can manufacture runs in a variety of ways, which is exactly the approach you want against a pitcher like Wheeler.
The Marlins are trading at 33 cents on Polymarket, but I price them closer to 37 cents, which gives us enough of an edge to hit the button.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Marlins.TV, NBC Sports Philadelphia
Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Padres vs. Mets Under 8.5
Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket
We're running with a large sample size of success with Robbie Ray and the hot hand in Zac Thornton tonight.
This New York Mets lineup has 82 at-bats against Ray and owns just a .204 xBA while striking out 30% of the time.
What sold me here is their astronomical 37% whiff rate against the San Diego Padres' prized deadline acquisition — look for him to end New York's four-game winning streak, too.
Thornton has been dealing lately, allowing just three earned runs across his last 11 innings. While the Mets' No. 8 prospect pitches to contact, he's allowed a low 4.5% hard-contact rate this season, which will be enough to suppress the Padres' bats.
With two well-rested bullpens, I'm expecting this game to cruise Under the total.
I'd play this to 55 cents at Polymarket.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Padres.TV, SNY
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Brewers moneyline
Price: 60¢ (-150) at Polymarket
The Milwaukee Brewers have a major pitching edge tonight as they return home following a seven-game road trip.
Kyle Harrison has been lights out in Milwaukee, posting a 1.38 ERA across 10 home starts. He’s backed by a bullpen in good form, ranking third in ERA over the last two weeks.
Meanwhile, Bryce Miller has allowed nine earned runs across two August starts and hasn’t been the same pitcher on the road, where his ERA is more than double his mark at home.
The Seattle Mariners’ bullpen has also been a disgrace lately, posting an MLB-worst 7.17 ERA over the past two weeks. Milwaukee is one of MLB's top home teams, going 12-4 at American Family Field since the All-Star break.
For more on this game, Quinn Allen has a full slate of Mariners vs. Brewers predictions on tap.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Mariners.TV, Brewers.TV
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| STL ML | -116 |
| Read analysis in our Cardinals vs. Reds predictions | |
| BOS -1.5 | +129 |
| Read analysis in our Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox predictions | |
| CHW/CHC o8.5 | -126 |
| Read analysis in our White Sox vs. Cubs predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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