The San Diego Padres look to even their midweek series with the Mets tonight after dropping a 2-1 opener to New York on Monday. That’s nothing new for the Mets, who are winning but not hitting.
Matched up against a Mets rookie on the mound, my Padres vs. Mets predictions and MLB picks believe the Friars will be able to score enough to top New York on Tuesday, Aug. 18.
Who will win Padres vs Mets today: Padres moneyline (-112)
The San Diego Padres are 10 games better than the New York Mets, so the odds seem generous. I’d take the Padres down to -120.
New York has won four straight, but managed just 15 runs, and have 18 in the last six games. They’ve done it by pitching and defense, allowing nine runs in the last four. That might change with Zac Thornton on the mound.
Making just his ninth MLB start, Thornton has leaned on his fastball despite his 15th-percentile velocity. The Padres have four batters with positive run value against the fastball, led by Manny Machado’s .308 AVG and .624 SLG.
COVERS INTEL: Thornton's success exceeds his underlying metrics. His FIP predicts an ERA more than a run higher than what he’s posted so far, and he’s allowing a minuscule .256 BABIP.
Padres vs Mets Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-103)
Both teams are currently pitching better than hitting. The Padres have gone Under in four of their last five. They have just three Overs in 10 games. The Mets have been Under in three of their last four.
The two teams combined have gone Under more than 53% of the time this season. The Padres have been Under 63% of the time (15 of 24 games) as a road favorite and 61% of the time coming off a loss.
Starter Robbie Ray has cut his ERA by 0.50 runs since the All-Star break and has increased his strikeout rate by nearly 0.75 Ks per nine.
Padres vs Mets home run prediction: Bo Bichette (+474)
Bo Bichette has never homered against Ray, but has three doubles in the last six times he’s faced him. He’s also swinging a hot bat with a 1.046 OPS and an OPS+ 92% over league average the last two weeks.
Ray has been relying on his breaking stuff, which is 78th percentile in MLB. Bichette is hitting .282 with .448 slugging against breaking balls this year. He also has a .897 OPS when ahead in the count and .978 with three balls. That spells trouble for Ray, who is just 14th percentile in walk rate.
- ML/RL bets: 30-37, -3.64 units
- Over/Under bets: 40-22, +5.64 units
Padres vs Mets weather
It will be calm and clear at Citi Field tonight. The warm weather gives the offenses a slight boost.
Padres vs Mets odds
- Moneyline: Padres -108 | Mets -104
- Run line: Padres -1.5 | Mets +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Padres vs Mets trend
The Padres have won their last six games after a loss and their last five after scoring two or fewer runs in the previous game. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Mets.
How to watch Padres vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date | Tuesday, Aug. 18, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Padres.TV, SNY |
| Padres starting pitcher | Robbie Ray (10-7, 3.28 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | Zac Thornton (3-3, 2.78 ERA) |
Padres vs Mets latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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