Happy Tuesday! We have a full slate ahead, with plenty of value in the MLB player props market.
Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB picks for Aug. 18, including why I expect Jac Caglianone to go nuclear.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Zebby Matthews |
Over 2.5 earned runs | -137 |
 Jac Caglianone |
Over 1.5 total bases | +104 |
 Munetaka Murakami |
Over 0.5 hits | -160 |
Zebby Matthews Over 2.5 earned runs (-137)
Wildly enough, the Atlanta Braves' first five team total is 2.5 at +110 on DraftKings. If you can find that, I would take that over this prop.
However, if it is not offered to you, Minnesota Twins right-hander Zebby Matthews is in for a long evening against this fully elite Braves lineup — which is why our Braves vs. Twins predictions back ATL to win outright.
Matthews enters Tuesday with one of the worst pitcher ratings on Batters-Box, where he also owns poorly rated matchup ISO, wOBA, hard contact, and ground ball rates.
Across his last three starts, the RHP has posted a 6.00 ERA and 1.53 WHIP while allowing a staggering 63% hard-hit rate and 9.3% barrel rate to opposing hitters.
The Braves enter with four elite-rated hitters in the default ratings and five in the current season dataset on Batters-Box. Even with Atlanta being a bit sluggish at the dish lately, Matthews has allowed so much hard contact that the Braves should be able to take advantage.
Guys like Matt Olson and Austin Riley have been barreling the ball as of late, and this is a matchup where I expect that to continue.
Do not pay more than the current price.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BravesVsn, MNNT
Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 total bases (+104)
Kansas City Royals slugger Jac Caglianone enters today with a mouthwatering matchup against Athletics right-hander Jack Perkins.
Not only does Caglianone own an elite rating on Batters-Box, but he also covers 99% of Perkins' pitch mix. Through 25 elite ratings this season, Caglianone has recorded at least one hit 68% of the time, homered 32%, and gone over this prop 52% of the time.
On top of that, the Royals' big man has been destroying the baseball over his last 10 games, posting an .872 SLG and .385 ISO while generating a 50% hard-hit rate and 14.7% barrel rate.
Against the last 30 left-handed hitters Perkins has faced, he has allowed a 54.5% hard-hit rate, 18.2% barrel rate, and 31.8% ground-ball rate. Those hitters have also posted a .408 xBA, 1.081 xSLG, and .434 xwOBA.
How are we supposed to ignore these numbers when Caglianone is plus money for two bases?
Take it down to -105 if you have to.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ROYL, NBCSCA
Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 hits (-160)
At -160 on a guy who feasts on fastballs and draws a right-hander who throws them nearly 53% of the time, yeah, it is a go!
Chicago White Sox slugger Munetaka Murakami enters with the fourth-highest matchup rating on the day. Today marks the first baseman's 52nd elite rating of the season, and in his previous 51, he has recorded at least one hit 72.55% of the time.
For those not looking to pay the heavy juice, he has gone Over 2+ bases 55% of the time and left the yard in 35.29% of those matchups.
Over his last 10 games, the White Sox rookie owns the highest hard-hit and barrel rates in baseball, according to Handigraphs. During that stretch, he also has a .667 SLG, .455 ISO and 25% ground-ball rate.
This evening, Murakami draws Chicago Cubs right-hander Kevin Gausman, who has been struggling against lefties. Over his last 30 faced, he owns an 8.10 ERA, 6.83 FIP and has allowed 2.70 HR/9. Those left-handed hitters have posted a .290 xBA, .477 xSLG and .414 xwOBA.
At -160, this is a price worth paying. I would not take this any lower.
If you want to avoid the juice, just wager 2+ bases at +135, or tail Todd Cordell, who took the Sox rookie to homer in his White Sox vs. Cubs predictions!
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: TBS
- Prop picks: 410-789, -4.4 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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