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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 14, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.89 |
+131 
|
o6.0 -167 
|
+1.5 -170 
|
|
4.30 |
-148 
|
u7.0 -115
|
-1.5 +155 
|
Chi. White Sox
- Under is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as a road favorite.
- White Sox are 4-0 in Newcombs last 4 starts on grass.
- White Sox are 4-0 in Newcombs last 4 starts.
- Under is 6-1 in White Sox last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Cleveland
- Over is 5-0 in Williams' last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Williams' last 5 starts with 7 or more days of rest.
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 games as an underdog.
- Guardians are 4-0 in Williams' last 4 starts as a favorite.
Top Projection
Colson Montgomery o0.5 Total RBIs (+260)
o0.5+280
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.93 |
-205
|
o7.5 -105
|
-1.5 -118
|
|
3.44 |
+190
|
u8.0 -143 
|
+1.5 +110
|
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Skubals last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Dodgers are 4-0 in Skubals last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Skubals last 4 starts on grass.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Reds last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Lodolos last 5 home starts.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Lodolos last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Eugenio Suarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+310)
o0.5+310
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.84 |
+118
|
o7.5 -109
|
+1.5 -178 
|
|
4.33 |
-130 
|
u7.5 -105
|
-1.5 +165
|
Detroit
- Over is 2-0-2 in Tigers last 4 overall.
- Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Meltons last 4 starts as a road favorite.
Toronto
- Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Sorianos last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Blue Jays are 4-0 in Sorianos last 4 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
George Springer o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
o0.5+200
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.69 |
+110
|
o7.5 -120
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
4.71 |
-120
|
u8.0 -110
|
-1.5 +170
|
Baltimore
- Over is 6-0 in Orioles last 6 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Orioles last 6 games as a road underdog.
- Orioles are 7-0 in Youngs last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-0 in Youngs last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
NY Mets
- Mets are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Mets last 5 interleague home games.
- Mets are 8-1 in their last 9 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-1 in Mets last 8 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Jackson Holliday o0.5 Total RBIs (+283)
o0.5+290
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.63 |
-124
|
o8.0 -110
|
-1.5 +135
|
|
4.44 |
+115
|
u8.5 -115
|
+1.5 -150
|
NY Yankees
- Under is 4-0-1 in Yankees last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Yankees are 4-0 in Warrens last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Yankees last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Minnesota
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Kremers last 4 home starts.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Twins last 8 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Aaron Judge o0.5 Total RBIs (+140)
o0.5+140
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.77 |
+120
|
o9.5 -105
|
+1.5 -167
|
|
5.21 |
-134
|
u9.5 -104
|
-1.5 +150
|
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0-1 in Braves last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Braves are 4-0 in Lopezs last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 7-1-1 in Braves last 9 games as an underdog.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 6-0 in Petersons last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Petersons last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Petersons last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Seiya Suzuki o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
o1.5+125
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.96 |
+122
|
o7.0 -175
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
4.23 |
-138
|
u8.5 -130
|
-1.5 +160
|
San Francisco
- Over is 3-0-2 in Roupps last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-0-2 in Giants last 8 games following a loss.
- Over is 5-0 in Giants last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Roupps last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
St. Louis
- Over is 6-0-1 in Cardinals last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cardinals last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Mathews' last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Nolan Gorman o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+145)
o1.5+145
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
7.02 |
-198
|
o10.0 -180
|
-1.5 -115
|
|
5.62 |
+170
|
u11.0 -110
|
+1.5 +110
|
San Diego
- Padres are 7-0 in their last 7 overall.
- Padres are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Padres last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Padres last 5 games as a favorite.
Colorado
- Over is 2-0-2 in Rockies last 4 overall.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Rockies last 4 games as an underdog.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Rockies last 4 on grass.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Top Projection
Mickey Moniak o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
o0.5+170
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.57 |
-114
|
o7.0 -155
|
-1.5 +165
|
|
3.98 |
+100
|
u7.5 -110
|
+1.5 -170
|
Seattle
- Over is 7-0 in Mariners last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Mariners last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mariners last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 8-1 in Mariners last 9 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
LA Angels
- Under is 4-0 in Detmers' last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 8-1-1 in Angels last 10 vs. American League West.
- Under is 8-1-1 in Detmers' last 10 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 6-1 in Angels last 7 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Cal Raleigh o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+125)
o1.5+125
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.31 |
+115
|
o7.0 -195
|
+1.5 -184
|
|
5.18 |
-130
|
u8.5 -114
|
-1.5 +160
|
Miami
- Marlins are 7-0 in Alcantaras last 7 starts vs. National League West.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Marlins last 6 games following a win.
- Under is 5-0 in Alcantaras last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Arizona
- Under is 4-0 in Burnes' last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Diamondbacks are 4-0 in Burnes' last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Diamondbacks last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 games as a home underdog.
Top Projection
Heriberto Hernandez o0.5 Total RBIs (+189)
o0.5+202
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
6.15 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.08 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Dodgers are 8-2 in their last 10 overall.
- Over is 6-1 in Dodgers last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Dodgers are 8-2 in their last 10 games as a favorite.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Lowders last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Lowders last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 5-0 in Lowders last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.53 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.76 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Chi. White Sox
- Under is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 6-1 in White Sox last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- White Sox are 9-2 in their last 11 vs. American League Central.
Cleveland
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-1 in Guardians last 6 vs. American League Central.
- Guardians are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.89 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
4.78 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Athletics
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 7-1 in last 8 road games.
- Over is 7-1 in last 8 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 8-1 in last 9 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Tampa Bay
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Rays are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Rays are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
- Rays are 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.98 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
3.94 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Milwaukee
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
- Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
- Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. National League Central.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 home games.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 6-1 in Pirates last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.91 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
3.02 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Phillies last 8 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 overall.
Washington
- Nationals are 5-1 in their last 6 home games.
- Nationals are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
- Nationals are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 games as a home favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.24 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.27 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Detroit
- Over is 2-0-2 in Tigers last 4 overall.
- Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Toronto
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Blue Jays are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last 6 home games.
- Under is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 during game 2 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.18 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.55 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Baltimore
- Over is 6-0 in Orioles last 6 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Orioles last 6 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 games as an underdog.
- Orioles are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a road underdog.
NY Mets
- Over is 6-0-1 in Mets last 7 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Manaeas last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Mets are 4-0 in Manaeas last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Manaeas last 4 interleague starts.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.46 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.77 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Atlanta
- Under is 7-1-1 in Braves last 9 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-1 in Braves last 5 overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Braves last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 10-2 in Braves last 12 games as a road favorite.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 5-1-1 in Cubs last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 7-2-1 in Cubs last 10 home games.
- Over is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 7-2-1 in Cubs last 10 games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.36 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.77 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
NY Yankees
- Under is 4-0-1 in Yankees last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Yankees are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
- Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Minnesota
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Twins are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Twins are 8-2 in their last 10 vs. American League East.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.84 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.92 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
San Francisco
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 on grass.
St. Louis
- Over is 6-0-1 in Cardinals last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cardinals last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Cardinals last 9 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Cardinals last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.54 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
3.96 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Boston
- Under is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 games following a win.
- Under is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 road games.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
Texas
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Rangers last 8 home games.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.00 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
4.26 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Kansas City
- Under is 7-0-1 in Royals last 8 overall.
- Under is 7-0-1 in Royals last 8 on grass.
- Royals are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League West.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Houston
- Under is 6-0 in Astros last 6 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
6.47 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.84 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
San Diego
- Padres are 7-0 in their last 7 overall.
- Padres are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Padres last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Padres last 5 games as a favorite.
Colorado
- Over is 2-0-2 in Rockies last 4 overall.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Rockies last 4 games as an underdog.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Rockies last 4 on grass.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.08 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.83 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Seattle
- Over is 7-0 in Mariners last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mariners last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-1 in Mariners last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Mariners are 7-2 in their last 9 during game 2 of a series.
LA Angels
- Under is 8-1-1 in Angels last 10 vs. American League West.
- Under is 6-1 in Angels last 7 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-1 in Angels last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 4-1 in Angels last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.49 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.92 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 7-1 in Marlins last 8 overall.
- Over is 7-1 in Marlins last 8 on grass.
Arizona
- Under is 6-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 7-2-1 in Diamondbacks last 10 overall.
- Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog.
- Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
CHW
@
CLE
Mon, Sep 14 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jo Adell o0.5 Total Home Runs (+560)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 20%. Adell’s power metrics aren’t at their peak, but the matchup still offers upside. He owns a .281 ISO against left-handed pitching and a 39.5% fly-ball rate at home. After going deep Sunday and posting a 41.2% recent hard-hit rate, Adell is worth a small home-run sprinkle.
Moneyline
CLE (-151)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 62%. Gavin Williams is in excellent form, sporting a 0.56 FIP across his last 13 innings and a 2.60 FIP over the past month. That sets up well against a struggling White Sox lineup, while Cleveland’s red-hot offense gets a favorable matchup against Sean Newcomb.
LAD
@
CIN
Mon, Sep 14 • 6:40 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Teoscar Hernandez o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-124)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Teoscar Hernández came through for us against Nick Lodolo last week, nearly producing a little league home run in the process. I’m going right back to him for another boom this evening. Hernández has covered this prop nearly 60% of the time across 44 elite road ratings, while hitting a double 34% of the time and leaving the yard over 20%. He has also been crushing the ball lately, posting a .676 SLG and 53.6% hard-hit rate over his last 10 games. Meanwhile, Lodolo has allowed a nearly 50% hard-hit rate to his last 60 right-handed hitters faced.
Strikeouts Thrown
Nick Lodolo o4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+115)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Two things can be true: I can not like a pitcher, but I can still like his Over strikeout props. That's where I am with Nick Lodolo today, with his plus-money punchout prop carrying a fair price of -115. The projection is 91 pitches and 4.76 Ks today for the lefty, who has hit the Over on his K prop in three straight starts. That 91-pitch projection might be low, as Lodolo has thrown 97, 100 and 95 pitches across his last three starts. He might get hit by the Dodgers, the No. 11 offense in wRC+ in the second half, but he can miss bats in good pitching conditions, in a tough park with the winds blowing in and temperatures dropping.
DET
@
TOR
Mon, Sep 14 • 7:07 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Josh Smith o0.5 Total Home Runs (+950)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
Play this to +800 for a quarter unit. Smith has five home runs in 45 at-bats with Toronto and draws Melton, who has allowed 11 of his 13 homers to left-handed hitters
Total Bases
Brett Bateman o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
BAL
@
NYM
Mon, Sep 14 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Pete Alonso o0.5 Total Home Runs (+331)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Mets starter Jonah Tong might have strikeout potential, but he gets hit hard, with 22 dingers allowed in 107 Triple-A innings. He's allowed eight runs over his two games since being recalled and is a good candidate today to hunt for homers with some big names on the other side. I haven't hit Pete Alonso much of late, as the price has been shy of three dollars, which is always a tough one to bite on, but he's sitting at 23.3% today and is in the buy zone for me. All I'm getting at that price is a guy with 14 homers in the second half (T-7) and the second-best xwOBA in baseball over that stretch. It's righty-on-righty, but Tong has worse splits against right-handed bats. I'm playing this to 25% or 4x.
Total
o7.5 (-123)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Nothing crazy here, just a projected 9% ROI on the Over, per THE BAT, which is predicting a total of 9.47 runs. Usually in these cases, the market doesn't account enough for one team, and there's value in that moneyline. But today, the missing value is equal on both sides, as both teams' totals show expected value to the Over. Jonah Tong has given up eight runs over his two games since being called up from Triple-A, where he had a mediocre 4.54 ERA but was missing bats. He's getting hit hard when he does, though, with 22 homers allowed in 107 minor-league innings.
On the other side, Brandon Young's 5.22 FIP in the second half indicates a pitcher whose sub-4.00 ERA isn't quite as it appears.
NYY
@
MIN
Mon, Sep 14 • 7:40 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Aaron Judge o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-124)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Aaron Judge is in a prime spot to bounce back after a brutal Sunday against a Minnesota Twins pitching staff led by right-hander Dean Kremer. Judge has gone over this prop more than 57% of the time over the last three seasons across a 373-game sample, while Kremer has allowed a 57.1% hard-hit rate, nearly a 20% barrel rate and a 76.2% elevation rate to his last 30 right-handed hitters faced. Kremer also owns a 7.62 ERA and 1.85 WHIP while allowing a barrel rate above 13%. With the matchup heavily favoring Judge, we are backing the Yankees captain to boom tonight.
Total Home Runs
Luis Garcia o0.5 Total Home Runs (+380)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Luis Garcia Jr. has a .384 wOBA, .564 SLG, and 13.6% barrel rate against right-handed pitching since the first of August. This while leading the team in hard hit balls by a margin of 10.
The splits are working in his favor on both fronts as Dean Kremer has allowed a whopping .264 ISO to left-handed bats on the season.
ATL
@
CHC
Mon, Sep 14 • 7:40 PM ET
Moneyline
CHC (-130)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
I recommend the Cubs moneyline to -140 because Braves righty Reynaldo Lopez sports a 5.00 xERA and 4.35 xFIP as a starter, and he just surrendered six runs across 4 2/3 innings in his return from a knee injury that had him sidelined him since July 26. The Cubs welcome the veteran to Wrigley with a second-ranked wOBA and xwOBA over the past 30 days, and a lineup ranking first in wOBA against righties in the second half. Additionally, Chicago lefty David Peterson has allowed two runs or fewer in eight of his past 10 starts, and he’s held opposing hitters to a below-average .314 wOBA over his last six appearances at Wrigley. Of course, Atlanta ranks 26th in on-base percentage and 18th in wOBA against left-handed pitchers since the All-Star break, too.
Total Bases
Pete Crow-Armstrong o1.5 Total Bases (-116)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
We are running back Pete Crow-Armstrong after the Cubs superstar hit multiple balls to the warning track Sunday, all above 103.2 MPH. He has been making a ton of hard contact lately, posting a .487 SLG, .709 xSLG and .256 ISO over his last ten games, along with a 55.2% hard-hit rate and 20.7% barrel rate. Crow-Armstrong carries an elite Batters-Box rating and covers 100% of Reynaldo Lopez's pitch mix. The last 60 lefties Lopez has faced own a .359 xBA and .606 xSLG. I grabbed this at -101 and would play it up to $1.20.
SF
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STL
Mon, Sep 14 • 7:45 PM ET
Total Bases
Jung Hoo Lee o1.5 Total Bases (+195)
Projection 1.33
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jung Hoo Lee in the 97th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest fences in Major League Baseball.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 83°.. Jung Hoo Lee has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 92.1-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 87.6-mph figure.. Over the last week, Jung Hoo Lee's 58.8% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 51.3%.
Total RBIs
Osleivis Basabe o0.5 Total RBIs (+234)
Projection 0.47
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Osleivis Basabe has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (55% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest fences in Major League Baseball.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 83°.. Hitting from the opposite that Quinn Mathews throws from, Osleivis Basabe will have an advantage in today's game.. Osleivis Basabe's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better of late, going from 18% on the season to 28.6% over the past week.
SD
@
COL
Mon, Sep 14 • 8:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jackson Merrill o0.5 Total Home Runs (+351)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
It's Tomoyuki Sugano day, and that means I'm backing homers in Colorado, despite having to pay a premium. His HR/9 over the last two seasons is by far the worst of any starter on today's slate. Only two other pitchers this year have a worse HR/9 among starters with at least 130 innings pitched. I'm putting Jackson Merrill and his red-hot form at a similar probability to Pete Alonso to go deep. He's one of the hottest hitters in baseball over the last week, slugging 1.040 with three homers. He's a lefty Sugano doesn't want to see, as left-handed bats have taken him deep once every 16.9 plate appearances compared to 27.3 for right-handed hitters. It's the best HR pitcher on the board against the best bat over the last week at Coors Field.
Total Bases
Kyle Karros o1.5 Total Bases (+154)
Projection 1.66
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Karros in the 84th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Coors Field as the best field in the league for run-scoring.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. This matchup is predicted to have the 4th-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Kyle Karros will hold that advantage today.
SEA
@
LAA
Mon, Sep 14 • 9:38 PM ET
Outs Recorded
Reid Detmers u17.5 Outs Recorded (+107)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
I really think fading Reid Detmers today might be the smartest betting choice I'm going to make all day. I'm already on his Under 6.5 strikeouts, but I want more on this edge, so I'm adding his Under 17.5 outs with plenty of confidence and would play this to -125. One of my favorite pitcher edges is finding guys coming off season-highs in pitches, but today with Reid, it's at another level. Detmers is coming off 112 pitches, which is a career-high. He's also at 168 innings this year after throwing just 87 and 63 innings over the previous two seasons. I'm betting on Detmers' efficiency dipping today, especially in the later innings. I have this one circled with a red Sharpie.
Strikeouts Thrown
Reid Detmers u6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-108)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
A lot has to go right for seven punch-outs for any pitcher, and especially for Reid Detmers, who I have a fair price of around -135. The biggest concern for the lefty is the workload. He's coming off a 112-pitch outing, a number he hadn't sniffed in his six-year MLB career. He's also at 168 innings after throwing just 151 combined over the previous two seasons. I don't care about the matchup (priced in) or the form (priced in). I just know that after those levels of output, efficiency and stamina are going to break down, and that's why I think this is one of the best betting angles on the board today.
MIA
@
AZ
Mon, Sep 14 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Ketel Marte o0.5 Total Home Runs (+575)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Isolating Sandy Alcantara's three most-used pitches against left-handed batters, Ketel Marte leads the Diamondbacks in both barrel rate (11.6%) and near home runs (17), according to PropFinder.
Marte also has an encouraging track record against Alcantara. He hit the ball hard in six of eight career at-bats, and left the park with one of them.
Moneyline
AZ (-129)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
I have the Diamondbacks priced at 57%.
They are fifth in line drives and second in fly balls against right-handed pitching during September.
That sets up well vs. Sandy Alcantara, who has allowed a lot of fly balls while striking out less than 10% of opposing batters the past 30 days.
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You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
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Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
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MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
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Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
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