Our MLB expert picks return for a short slate on Monday, Sept. 14.
While one of our analysts is eyeing a high-scoring clash between the Baltimore Orioles and New York Mets, two others are at odds over who will win between the Atlanta Braves and Chicago Cubs.
It's all a part of today's selection of MLB picks.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: BAL/NYM o7.5 |
54% |
 Jon Metler: ATL ML |
45% |
 Neil Parker: CHC ML |
56% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Orioles at Mets Over 7.5
Price: 54¢ at Polymarket
Nothing crazy here, just a projected 9% ROI on the Over, per THE BAT, which is predicting a total of 9.47 runs.
Usually in these cases, the market doesn't account enough for one team, and there's value in that moneyline. But today, the missing value is equal on either side, as both teams' totals show expected value to the Over.
Jonah Tong has given up eight runs over his two games since being called up from Triple-A, where he had a mediocre 4.54 ERA but was missing bats. He's getting hit hard when he does, though, with 22 homers allowed in 107 minor-league innings.
On the other side, Brandon Young's 5.22 FIP in the second half indicates a pitcher whose sub-4.00 ERA isn't quite as good as it appears.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: MASN, SNY
Jon Metler's expert pick: Braves moneyline
Price: 45¢ at Polymarket
The Atlanta Braves at 45% are an absolute buy for me, as I make them closer to a 53% favorite. That creates a significant edge at the current market price.
Chicago Cubs starter David Peterson's best path to getting right-handed hitters out is by tunneling his slider off his sinker. The issue is that the Braves' right-handed bats, including Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, and Austin Riley, are all aggressive low-ball hitters against left-handed pitching.
If Peterson can't generate his usual sharp sinker movement, these hitters have the swing paths to get underneath the pitch and drive it with power.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: BravesVsn, Marquee
Neil Parker's expert pick: Cubs moneyline
Price: 56¢ at Polymarket
Braves righty Reynaldo Lopez sports a 5.00 xERA and 4.35 xFIP as a starter, and he just surrendered six runs across 4 2/3 innings in his return from a knee injury that had him sidelined him since July 26.
The Cubs welcome the veteran to Wrigley with a second-ranked wOBA and xwOBA over the past 30 days, and a lineup ranking first in wOBA against righties in the second half. Additionally, Peterson has allowed two runs or fewer in eight of his past 10 starts, and he’s held opposing hitters to a below-average .314 wOBA over his last six appearances at Wrigley.
Of course, Atlanta ranks 26th in on-base percentage and 18th in wOBA against left-handed pitchers since the All-Star break, too, giving the Cubbies an even greater edge.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: MLB Network
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| LAD -1.5 | 55% |
| Read analysis in our Dodgers vs. Reds predictions | |
| CWS/CLE o6.5 | 56% |
| Read analysis in our White Sox vs. Guardians predictions | |
| NYY ML | 56% |
| Read analysis in our Yankees vs. Twins predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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