No team has won more than the New York Yankees (56%) over the last 30 games, and they're rightfully favored to get another positive result in Minnesota as I make my Yankees vs. Twins predictions.
They profile as the perfect offense to exploit Dean Kremer's vulnerability against power, making New York the target with my MLB picks.
Who will win Yankees vs Twins today: Yankees (56%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
I’m backing the New York Yankees up to 59%.
They lead the majors in barrel rate against right-handed pitching – while slotting fourth in home runs – despite Aaron Judge missing more than 80 games. They're an extreme power threat, and that should show up tonight.
Minnesota Twins pitcher Dean Kremer ranks last among today’s projected starters in barrel rate over the past month at 12.3%. He's struggled with powerful offenses, allowing a 7.23 ERA and 2.53 HR/9 over seven starts against top-10 teams in ISO vs. RHP.
COVERS INTEL: Kremer's ninth-percentile ranking in home run suppression could lead to a world of trouble against the Yankees, who are second in homers.
Yankees vs Twins Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (50%)
The Over is in play to 54%.
New York has hit for an incredible amount of power and the Yankees are quite familiar with Kremer from years of him pitching in the AL East.
They also shine against Kremer’s pitch mix. He throws a ton of fastballs and cutters, and the Yankees boast eight batters with an OBP of .340 or higher against those two pitches thrown from righties.
The Twins quietly sit second in barrel% and fifth in xSLG versus righties this month. They can get to Will Warren, who ranks in the ninth percentile in hard-hit rate.
Yankees vs Twins home run prediction: Luis Garcia Jr. (20%)
Luis Garcia Jr. is hammering right-handed pitching.
He's posted a .384 wOBA, .564 SLG, and 13.6% barrel rate since the first of August while leading the team in hard-hit balls by 10.
The splits are working in his favor on both fronts, as Kremer is allowing a whopping .264 ISO to left-handed bats on the season. This is a good matchup for the Yankees' power to shine through, and Garcia Jr. is a prime candidate to lead the charge.
- ML/RL bets: 111-96, -7.85 units
- Over/Under bets: 106-95-6, -2.43 units
Yankees vs Twins weather
The forecast calls for colder temperatures hovering around 60 with winds blowing right to left. It's good pitching weather.
Yankees vs Twins odds
- Moneyline: Yankees 56% | Twins 45%
- Run line: Yankees -1.5 (44%) | Twins +1.5 (57%)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (50%) | Under 8.5 (51%)
Yankees vs Twins trend
Minnesota has hit the Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.15 units, 25% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Twins.
How to watch Yankees vs Twins and game info
| Location | Target Field, Minneapolis, Minn. |
| Date | Monday, Sept. 14, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, Twins.TV |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Will Warren (10-6, 4.05 ERA) |
| Twins starting pitcher | Dean Kremer (3-5, 5.65 ERA) |
Yankees vs Twins latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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