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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 12, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.71 |
-165 
|
o7.5 -124 
|
-1.5 +104
|
|
3.80 |
+165 
|
u8.0 -110
|
+1.5 -113 
|
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 8-0 in their last 8 overall.
- Dodgers are 8-0 in their last 8 games on grass.
- Dodgers are 6-0 in Glasnows last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Dodgers are 7-0 in their last 7 games following a win.
Miami
- Over is 6-0 in Marlins last 6 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Marlins last 6 home games.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Marlins last 6 on grass.
Top Projection
Heriberto Hernandez o0.5 Total RBIs (+250)
o0.5+280
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.34 |
-107
|
o8.0 -125
|
-1.5 +155
|
|
4.29 |
-108
|
u8.5 -114
|
+1.5 -180 
|
Cleveland
- Over is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 road games.
- Under is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Minnesota
- Over is 6-0-2 in Prielipps last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-0 in Prielipps last 5 starts a home underdog.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Prielipps last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 6-0 in Prielipps last 6 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Royce Lewis u1.5 Total Bases (-190)
u1.5-190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.92 |
+200
|
o8.5 -110
|
+1.5 -105
|
|
5.70 |
-185
|
u8.5 -102 
|
-1.5 +120
|
Kansas City
- Under is 5-0-1 in Royals last 6 overall.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Royals last 6 on grass.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Dobnaks last 5 starts overall.
Boston
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Suarezs last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Suarezs last 5 home starts.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in Suarezs last 4 starts vs. American League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in Suarezs last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Top Projection
Wilyer Abreu o0.5 Total RBIs (+120)
o0.5+120
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.77 |
+126
|
o7.5 -114
|
+1.5 -170 
|
|
4.65 |
-140
|
u7.5 +100
|
-1.5 +145
|
Houston
- Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 games as a favorite.
- Astros are 11-1 in their last 12 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 8-2 in Astros last 10 overall.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Astros last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Rays last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Rays are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Rays are 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Isaac Paredes o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
o0.5+230
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.29 |
+164
|
o8.5 -105
|
+1.5 -125
|
|
5.27 |
-178
|
u8.5 -109
|
-1.5 +116
|
Cincinnati
- Over is 5-0-1 in Singers last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-0 in Singers last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Singers last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Singers last 4 road starts.
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 games on grass.
Top Projection
Eugenio Suarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+243)
o0.5+243
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.20 |
-108
|
o7.0 -205
|
-1.5 +155
|
|
4.63 |
-108
|
u8.5 -110
|
+1.5 -180
|
Chi. White Sox
- Under is 4-1 in White Sox last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 7-2-1 in White Sox last 10 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
St. Louis
- Over is 6-0-1 in Cardinals last 7 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Leahys last 6 starts as a home favorite.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Leahys last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 6-0-2 in Leahys last 8 home starts.
Top Projection
Nathan Church o0.5 Total Home Runs (+1400)
o0.5+1400
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.05 |
+118
|
o8.0 -118
|
+2.5 -295
|
|
4.92 |
-134
|
u9.5 -180
|
-2.5 +230
|
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 7-0 in Luzardos last 7 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 5-0 in Phillies last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Phillies are 6-0 in Luzardos last 6 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.
Atlanta
- Under is 7-1-1 in Braves last 9 games as an underdog.
- Braves are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Braves last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Braves are 4-1 in Mahles last 5 starts on grass.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+202)
o0.5+202
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.87 |
+110
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
5.05 |
-125
|
u8.5 -115
|
-1.5 +165
|
Texas
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Rockers last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Rockers last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Arizona
- Under is 4-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 5 games following a win.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
- Diamondbacks are 4-0 in Pfaadts last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Diamondbacks are 4-0 in Pfaadts last 4 starts as a favorite.
Top Projection
Gabriel Moreno o0.5 Total RBIs (+221)
o0.5+221
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.83 |
-170
|
o9.0 -139
|
-1.5 +120
|
|
4.79 |
+150
|
u10.5 -160
|
+1.5 -105
|
Seattle
- Mariners are 5-0 in Woos last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Mariners are 4-0 in Woos last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Mariners are 4-0 in Woos last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Mariners are 4-0 in Woos last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Athletics
- Over is 8-1 in last 9 vs. American League West.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Jumps last 8 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. American League West.
- Over is 6-1 in last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Zack Gelof o0.5 Total RBIs (+192)
o0.5+192
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.34 |
+142
|
o8.5 -115
|
+1.5 -150
|
|
4.95 |
-155
|
u8.5 +105
|
-1.5 +136
|
Colorado
- Under is 4-0-1 in Rockies last 5 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Rockies last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Hughes' last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Rockies last 7 overall.
Detroit
- Under is 6-0-2 in Tigers last 8 vs. National League West.
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Tigers last 4 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.85 |
+155
|
o7.5 +100
|
+2.5 -280
|
|
|
4.64 |
-175
|
u7.5 -115
|
-2.5 +202
|
Kansas City
- Under is 5-0-1 in Royals last 6 overall.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Royals last 6 on grass.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Camerons last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Boston
- Red Sox are 7-0 in Tolles last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Tolles last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Tolles last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Tolles last 5 home starts.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.85 |
+110
|
o8.5 -130
|
+1.5 -160
|
|
|
5.36 |
-125
|
u9.5 -135
|
-1.5 +160
|
Philadelphia
- Under is 5-0 in Phillies last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 8-1 in Painters last 9 starts on grass.
- Over is 7-1 in Painters last 8 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 8-1 in Painters last 9 starts overall.
Atlanta
- Braves are 5-0 in Holmes' last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 13-1-1 in Holmes' last 15 starts vs. National League East.
- Under is 7-1-1 in Braves last 9 games as an underdog.
- Over is 8-1 in Holmes' last 9 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.42 |
+158
|
o7.5 -105
|
+1.5 -145
|
|
5.31 |
-184
|
u7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +130
|
NY Mets
- Under is 6-0-1 in Scotts last 7 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Scotts last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Mets are 5-0 in Scotts last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Mets last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 6-0 in their last 6 home games.
- Yankees are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Yankees are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.56 |
+110
|
o9.0 -105
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
5.03 |
-118
|
u9.5 -128
|
-1.5 +155
|
LA Angels
- Under is 6-0 in Angels last 6 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-0 in Angels last 6 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-0 in Angels last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Angels last 4 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Washington
- Under is 6-0 in Nationals last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Nationals last 5 vs. American League West.
- Under is 5-0 in Nationals last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Irvins last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.80 |
+134
|
o7.5 +100
|
+1.5 -160
|
|
4.07 |
-145
|
u7.5 -120
|
-1.5 +160
|
Baltimore
- Over is 6-0 in Rogers' last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Over is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Orioles are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a road underdog.
Toronto
- Over is 5-0 in Ceases last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Ceases last 6 starts overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Ceases last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.28 |
+124
|
o7.5 -115
|
+1.5 -178
|
|
|
4.39 |
-140
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +150
|
Houston
- Under is 4-0-1 in Astros last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 5-0-2 in Astros last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Astros are 5-0 in Wesneskis last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 games as a favorite.
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 8-0 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Rays are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Peraltas last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Rays are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.48 |
-155
|
o8.0 -120
|
-3.5 +250
|
|
|
3.88 |
+130
|
u8.0 +100
|
+3.5 -330
|
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 8-0 in their last 8 overall.
- Dodgers are 8-0 in their last 8 games on grass.
- Over is 7-0 in Wrobleskis last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in Wrobleskis last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Miami
- Over is 6-0 in Marlins last 6 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Marlins last 6 home games.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Marlins last 6 on grass.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.38 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.33 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cleveland
- Over is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 6-1 in Guardians last 7 games as an underdog.
Minnesota
- Over is 5-1 in Twins last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-1 in Twins last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 12-3-1 in Twins last 16 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 7-3 in Twins last 10 overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.12 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.08 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cincinnati
- Over is 5-0 in Burns' last 5 starts vs. National League Central.
- Reds are 5-0 in Burns' last 5 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 8-1 in Reds last 9 vs. National League Central.
Milwaukee
- Over is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
SD
@
SF
Sat, Sep 12 • 4:05 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Fernando Tatis Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+450)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Fernando Tatis Jr. has crushed Cesar Perdomo’s fastball-changeup combination over the last 25 games.
He’s hit the ball hard 50% of the time while generating barrels at a 15.4% clip. All of that quality contact has translated to a .427 ISO and .447 wOBA.
Moneyline
SD (-158)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
I’m backing the San Diego Padres to 62%.
I trust they will get to Cesar Perdomo, who posted a 1.59 WHIP and 5.10 ERA over 47.2 innings of work in AAA.
Michael King conceded two runs or fewer in nine of his past 12 starts, and two of the three exceptions were against teams over .500.
LAD
@
MIA
Sat, Sep 12 • 4:10 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Tyler Glasnow o7.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+107)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play this prop down to +100. Tyler Glasnow is back missing bats, averaging 9.69 K/9 over his last two outings and striking out eight last time out. The Miami Marlins have averaged nine strikeouts across its last three games, giving Glasnow a strong matchup to clear this number.
Total RBIs
Mookie Betts o0.5 Total RBIs (+185)
Projection 0.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Mookie Betts's batting average ability is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mookie Betts is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Mookie Betts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 6th-shallowest CF fences today.. Mookie Betts has been hot recently, cracking 2 HRs in the last week.. Despite posting a .320 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Mookie Betts has had some very poor luck given the .018 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .338.
CLE
@
MIN
Sat, Sep 12 • 4:10 PM ET
Moneyline
CLE (-120)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Gavin Williams and Bailey Ober offer an even starting duel, but Cleveland possesses baseball's most dominant active bullpen (2.83 SIERA, 5.9% walk rate over the last 14 days). In a tight matchup, I trust Cleveland's late-inning shutdown arms with the better bats to secure the win.
Total RBIs
Jo Adell o0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
Projection 0.67
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his home run talent, Jo Adell ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jo Adell is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Batting from the opposite that Connor Prielipp throws from, Jo Adell will have the upper hand today.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense projects as the 3rd-weakest out of every team today.
KC
@
BOS
Sat, Sep 12 • 4:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Vinnie Pasquantino o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Vinnie Pasquantino is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Fenway Park grades out as the #3 ballpark in MLB for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Vinnie Pasquantino pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.2% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Vinnie Pasquantino's launch angle this season (20.3°) is a significant increase over his 16.2° mark last season.. Vinnie Pasquantino has been hot in recent games, hitting 2 homers in the last week.
Strikeouts Thrown
Ranger Suarez o4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-125)
Projection 5.53
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The Kansas City Royals have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matthew Lugo, John Rave, Carter Jensen).. Jim Wolf projects as a Pitchers Umpire and is scheduled to be calling pitches in today's game.. According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Adley Rutschman (the Red Sox's expected catcher in today's game) projects as a good pitch framer.. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 4th-most suitable for pitching on the schedule today.
HOU
@
TB
Sat, Sep 12 • 6:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Junior Caminero o0.5 Total Home Runs (+265)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
It’s arrows up for Junior Caminero.
The powerful righty has seen all his indicators spike against Peter Lambert’s pitch mix over the last 25 at bats. His average exit velocity is up almost four miles per hour, his barrel rate is up over 10%, and his hard hit rate has soared to 66.7%.
On the season, Caminero has managed an ISO of .250 or higher against each of Lambert’s four most-used pitches.
Moneyline
TB (-139)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
I’m on the Tampa Bay Rays up to 60%.
Ian Seymour is rocking a matching 2.69 xFIP and SIERA with a 30.3 K% over the past 30 days.
I’m not as sold on Peter Lambert. He has allowed 1.58 baserunners per inning over the same stretch while his xFIP and SIERA sit closer to 5.0.
CIN
@
MIL
Sat, Sep 12 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jake Bauers o0.5 Total Home Runs (+390)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Jake Bauers has hit .364 with a 23.5% barrel rate and .545 ISO against Brady Singer’s oft-used sinker-slider combination over the last 25 games. Nobody on the Milwaukee Brewers has come close to approaching those outputs.
Singer has also gotten crushed by lefties this year, allowing a .202 ISO and 1.99 home runs per nine innings.
Total
o8.5 (-114)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
I’m expecting the run parade to continue, making the Over an appealing buy to 54%.
Brady Singer owns a 6.08 ERA over nine starts against teams ranking Top-10 in OBP and OPS vs. righties, and the Milwaukee Brewers sit first or second in both.
Meanwhile, Kyle Harrison has quietly allowed a 13.8% barrel rate over the last 30 days.
CHW
@
STL
Sat, Sep 12 • 7:15 PM ET
Moneyline
CHW (-105)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Luis Castillo gives Chicago a decisive frontline starting edge over Kyle Leahy. While the White Sox bats are cold (78 wRC+), Chicago's bullpen has been lockdown over the past 14 days (2.11 ERA, 1.83 BB/9), neutralizing the Cardinals' offensive advantage.
Total Bases
JB
Joshua Baez o1.5 Total Bases (+188)
Projection 1.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run ability, Joshua Baez ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Joshua Baez is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.. Busch Stadium has the 7th-shortest fences in Major League Baseball.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest temperature on the slate at 88°.. Joshua Baez hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 81st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.
PHI
@
ATL
Sat, Sep 12 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Kyle Schwarber o0.5 Total Home Runs (+250)
Nick Galaida
Betting Analyst
Kyle Schwarber demolishes baseballs, especially against right-handed pitching. He owns a staggering 20.8% barrel rate during the last 30 days and more than half of his balls in play in that span have been in the air. Tyler Mahle isn't particularly prone to surrendering home runs, but Schwarber is as close to matchup-proof as it gets in Major League Baseball when betting home runs.
Moneyline
PHI (+116)
Nick Galaida
Betting Analyst
Tyler Mahle owns a 1.24 ERA across his last six starts, but a 4.12 xERA in that span suggests he's been more lucky than good. Mahle has benefited from an unsustainably-high rate of runners left on base, especially when considering that he's been consistently falling behind in counts. Atlanta's arm barn is a concern tonight, too, having used Raisel Iglesias and Didier Fuentes each of the last two days. If this is a close game in the latter frames, Philadelphia is better-equipped to come away with a win.
TEX
@
AZ
Sat, Sep 12 • 8:10 PM ET
Total
u8.5 (-101)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 55%. Arizona's bullpen has been excellent recently, posting a 3.17 FIP over the last week while keeping home runs to a minimum. Texas' relief corps has been less reliable, but neither offense has been particularly dominant. With Arizona's pen in strong form, I see enough downside for this game to stay Under 8.5.
Moneyline
AZ (-139)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 60%. Brandon Pfaadt has been steady lately, posting a 3.91 xERA over his last two starts while limiting home runs. Kumar Rocker has been much shakier, allowing 2.24 HR/9 with a 5.35 FIP over his last two appearances. Arizona has the stronger recent pitching profile and deserves the edge.
SEA
@
ATH
Sat, Sep 12 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Donovan Walton o1.5 Total Bases (+192)
Projection 1.42
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Sutter Health Park grades out as the #3 park in the majors for left-handed home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all major league parks, Sutter Health Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the hottest weather of all games today at 94°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 16.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters.. Donovan Walton will have the handedness advantage over Bryan Woo in today's game... and moreover, Woo has a large platoon split.
Total Bases
Taylor Ward o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.76
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Taylor Ward ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. The #3 stadium in the majors for boosting home runs to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. Among all major league parks, Sutter Health Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the hottest weather of all games today at 94°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 15.4-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
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Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
