The San Francisco Giants own a 17-27 record against divisional opponents this season, and it's tough to envision things turning around against the San Diego Padres (60%).
The Padres desperately need wins as they fight for the last NL Wild Card spot, and I'm banking on them grabbing another one with my Padres vs. Giants predictions and MLB picks.
Who will win Padres vs Giants today: San Diego Padres (61%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
I’m backing the San Diego Padres to 62%.
I trust they will get to Cesar Perdomo, who posted a 1.59 WHIP and 5.10 ERA over 47.2 innings of work in AAA.
He was not productive in the minors so there’s no reason to expect results in the majors, especially against one of the league’s hottest teams.
Michael King conceded two runs or fewer in nine of his past 12 starts, and two of the three exceptions were against teams over .500.
He should slow the San Francisco Giants and their 24th ranked scoring offense.
COVERS INTEL: The Padres are tied for second in barrels against righties in September, making them a tough offense for the inexperienced Perdomo to handle.
Padres vs Giants Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (57%)
I’m playing the Over to 57%.
Perdomo has pitched to a 0.80 WHIP and 0.90 ERA through his first two starts. His WHIP in AAA was almost double while his ERA was 4.20 runs higher, clear signals his numbers are smoke and mirrors.
The Padres rank fifth in xwOBA over the past month and can hit pitchers of both handedness, making them a threat to score throughout.
King’s xFIP sits at 4.43 the last 30 days. He has not been nearly as untouchable as his results suggest, which should allow the Giants to chip in.
Padres vs Giants home run prediction: Fernando Tatis Jr. (18%)
Fernando Tatis Jr. has crushed Perdomo’s fastball-changeup combination over the last 25 games.
He’s hit the ball hard 50% of the time while generating barrels at a 15.4% clip. All of that quality contact has translated to a .427 ISO and .447 wOBA.
Tatis Jr. looks just as good when zooming out at his entire body of work. His ISO is .276 or higher against both of those pitches when thrown by southpaws.
- ML/RL bets: 108-95, -9.55 units
- Over/Under bets: 104-93-6, -1.84 units
Padres vs Giants weather
Colder temperatures in the low 60s are projected, albeit with winds blowing out. Boost to the pitchers.
Padres vs Giants odds
- Moneyline: Padres 60% | Giants 41%
- Run line: Padres -1.5 (47%) | Giants +1.5 (54%)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (53%) | Under 7.5 (48%)
Padres vs Giants trend
San Diego has hit the moneyline in 25 of the last 40 games (+6.65 units, 13% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Giants.
How to watch Padres vs Giants and game info
| Location | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Saturday, September 12, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | Padres.TV, NBC Sports Bay Area |
| Padres starting pitcher | Michael King (10-9, 3.00 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher | Cesar Perdomo (0-0, 0.90 ERA) |
Padres vs Giants latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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