Saturday's massive MLB slate offers a 15-game mix of short favorites and large underdogs that are ripe for the picking.
Read on for my MLB moneyline predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, Sept. 12.
MLB moneyline picks for September 12
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Rockiesvs  Tigers |
43% |
 Metsvs  Yankees |
38% |
 Piratesvs  Cubs |
49% |
 Oriolesvs  Blue Jays |
56% |
 Angelsvs  Nationals |
46% |
 Padresvs  Giants |
59% |
 Royalsvs  Red Sox |
37% |
 Guardiansvs  Twins |
52% |
 Dodgersvs  Marlins |
31% |
 Astrosvs  Rays |
42% |
 Redsvs  Brewers |
37% |
 Philliesvs  Braves |
50% |
 White Soxvs  Cardinals |
50% |
 Rangersvs  Diamondbacks |
46% |
 Marinersvs  Athletics |
60% |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of September 12.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for September 12
Unless otherwise noted, all stats are from FanGraphs and cover the past 14 days.
Rockies vs Tigers: Rockies
Rockies win probability: 43.5%
Detroit's offense has collapsed over the last 14 days (76 wRC+, 28.7% K%), making Tanner Gordon viable despite his shaky contact profile. Backing Colorado at this price exploits an unsettled Tigers rotation and a Detroit pen sporting a bloated 4.63 SIERA over that same span.
Mets vs Yankees: Mets
Mets win probability: 38.5%
While Gerrit Cole brings name recognition, the Mets' bats are surging over the last two weeks with a 118 wRC+ and 18 home runs. Backing Mets starter Zac Thornton offers huge value in the Subway Series against a Yankees offense striking out 23.4% of the time.
Pirates vs Cubs: Pirates
Pirates win probability: 49%
Paul Skenes provides an overwhelming starter edge over Clay Holmes' limited starting length. Despite Chicago's scorching 136 wRC+, Skenes' elite bat-missing repertoire combined with Pittsburgh's bullpen form (3.68 SIERA, 0.17 HR/9) makes the Pirates the sharp plus-money play.
Orioles vs Blue Jays: Blue Jays
Blue Jays win probability: 56.5%
Spencer Arrighetti gets run support from a Toronto lineup ranked third in baseball over the past 14 days (117 wRC+, 16.7% K%). Kyle Bradish faces a steep climb backed by an Orioles offense slumping to an anemic 80 wRC+.
Angels vs Nationals: Angels
Angels win probability: 46.9%
Andrew Alvarez lacks the bat-missing stuff to compensate for Washington's bullpen collapse (8.14 ERA, 2.03 HR/9 over the last 14 days). Walbert Urena should keep Los Angeles competitive against a cold Nationals offense (87 wRC+), creating clear plus-money underdog value.
Padres vs Giants: Padres
Padres win probability: 59.2%
Michael King holds a decisive starting advantage over Cesar Perdomo, and San Diego bridges directly into an elite relief corps (2.85 SIERA, 30.2% K%). This price falls a bit short of my usual cutoff; the Padres easily outclass the light-hitting Giants (106 wRC+).
Royals vs Red Sox: Royals
Royals win probability: 37.5%
Ranger Suarez faces a Kansas City lineup displaying an extremely low strikeout rate (17.5% K%). With Boston's offense stalling to a 92 wRC+ over the last two weeks, Randy Dobnak and a stingy KC bullpen (2.60 BB/9) possess strong underdog value.
Guardians vs Twins: Guardians
Guardians win probability: 52.1%
Gavin Williams and Bailey Ober offer an even starting duel, but Cleveland possesses baseball's most dominant active bullpen (2.83 SIERA, 5.9% walk rate over the last 14 days). In a tight matchup, I trust Cleveland's late-inning shutdown arms with the better bats to secure the win.
Dodgers vs Marlins: Marlins
Marlins win probability: 31%
Tyler Glasnow commands heavy chalk, shifting all discipline-based value to heavy underdog Miami. Tyler Phillips receives backing from a quietly productive Marlins offense (108 wRC+, 72 runs over 14 days), making the massive dog price mathematically worth backing.
Astros vs Rays: Astros
Astros win probability: 42.6%
Ian Seymour lacks the deep-inning efficiency to hide a Rays bullpen sporting a league-worst 4.78 SIERA and 12.1% walk rate. Peter Lambert keeps Houston live at a good price and is backed by an Astros bullpen limiting walks and barrels (3.73 SIERA).
Reds vs Brewers: Reds
Reds win probability: 37.5%
Brady Singer's ground-ball profile matches up well against Milwaukee, while Kyle Harrison must navigate a Cincinnati offense slugging 23 home runs (113 wRC+) over the past two weeks. Coupled with Milwaukee's bullpen unraveling (5.08 ERA, 5.63 FIP), the Reds are an excellent plus-money target.
Phillies vs Braves: Phillies
Phillies win probability: 50%
Jesus Luzardo outpitches Tyler Mahle across all metrics, giving Philadelphia an immense rotation edge. Atlanta's lineup has completely stalled over the last 14 days (MLB-worst 79 wRC+, .284 OBP), making Luzardo and a 3.58 SIERA Phillies bullpen an automatic even-money selection.
White Sox vs Cardinals: White Sox
White Sox win probability: 50.5%
Luis Castillo gives Chicago a decisive frontline starting edge over Kyle Leahy. While the White Sox bats are cold (78 wRC+), Chicago's bullpen has been lockdown over the past 14 days (2.11 ERA, 1.83 BB/9), neutralizing the Cardinals' offensive advantage.
Rangers vs Diamondbacks: Rangers
Rangers win probability: 46.9%
MacKenzie Gore faces an Arizona offense mired in a severe 14-day slump (77 wRC+, .230 average). Texas has crushed 22 home runs with a 112 wRC+ over that span, giving Gore ample support to take down Brandon Pfaadt at plus-money.
Mariners vs Athletics: Mariners
Mariners win probability: 60%
Bryan Woo holds a huge command and experience advantage over rookie Gage Jump. While Seattle's bullpen has been volatile lately, Woo's ability to work deep neutralizes the Athletics lineup and Jump's elevated walk tendencies, and is worth the pricey odds.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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