My MLB player props home run analysis for today features three well-known sluggers.
The Majors' home run leader, Kyle Schwarber, is highlighted, while I'll also discuss why Ben Rice and Elly De La Cruz are interesting looks for a bomb.
Find out more in my MLB picks for Saturday, Sep. 12.
MLB home run props for today
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Kyle Schwarber
Ben Rice 
Home run prediction: Kyle Schwarber (24%)
Play up to 27%.
Kyle Schwarber continues to lead the Majors in homers with 44, and that doesn't appear to be changing anytime soon. The Philadelphia Phillies slugger has left the yard four times in his last six games with a .522 ISO.
While Schwarber's fly ball numbers aren't eye-popping, what stands out is his 57.1% FB/HR rate in the last week. When he does get lift, the ball goes a long way. Schwarber also has a 23.5% barrel rate recently.
While Tyler Mahle has limited homers lately, he has allowed a 45.2% hard-hit rate in the last month. There is some vulnerability. But the Atlanta Braves' bullpen is where Schwarber can really do damage. They've given up 2.53 HR/9 in their last 21 1/3 innings.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BravesVision, NBC Sports Philadelphia
Home run prediction: Ben Rice (21%)
Play up to 25%.
Ben Rice hasn't been smacking a lot of homers lately, but the matchup is intriguing. The New York Yankees star faces New York Mets left-hander Zac Thornton, who has allowed 4.50 HR/9 over his last two starts.
Rice owns a .205 ISO against southpaws this season, but his overall power profile remains elite, highlighted by a 14.2% barrel rate and 48.3% hard-hit rate.
Thornton's vulnerability to the long ball is a clear benefit for Rice here, and the Mets' relief corps is also vulnerable. They've surrendered 1.69 HR/9 recently.
- Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB Network
- HR picks: 18-97, -13.89 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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