The Ottawa Senators have been one of the league's best teams at controlling xG of late, and Jake Sanderson's been on the ice for more than anybody on the roster since rejoining the lineup.
My Senators vs. Penguins prediction sees Sanderson picking up a point in an advantagous matchup tonight.
Let's dive into my NHL picks for Saturday, Nov. 14.
Senators vs Penguins prediction: Ottawa Senators moneyline
I’m on the Ottawa Senators to 57%.
They were quietly one of the league’s best teams analytically a year ago, and they’re getting to that point again this season.
The Senators have controlled a score-adjusted 58.6% of the expected goals share at 5-on-5 in November, good for third in the league.
It has led to great results. Ottawa’s beaten their opponents by 1.28 goals per 60 minutes along the way.
The Pittsburgh Penguins are 24th in 5-on-5 goal differential (-0.81 per 60) this month and their power play has generated chances inefficiently. It’ll be tough to make up ground if Ottawa controls the game like they have been.
COVERS INTEL: The Senators have generated a team-leading 17.85 xG during Sanderson's minutes over 11 games since returning to the lineup, good for an average of 1.62 per game.
Senators vs Penguins combo
I like the Senators to take care of business on the road, and I’m backing Jake Sanderson and Dylan Cozens to lead the charge offensively.
Sanderson leads the Senators in on-ice expected goals generated since he made his return 11 games ago. He has averaged 1.4 points over seven games Ottawa’s been favored in this season.
Cozens is riding shotgun with Tim Stutzle at 5-on-5 and correlates nicely with Sanderson on the top power play.
Senators vs Penguins combo
- Ottawa Senators moneyline
- Jake Sanderson Over 0.5 points
- Dylan Cozens Over 0.5 points
TOP PICK
Senators vs Penguins player prop: Jake Sanderson Over 0.5 points
Sanderson is playable for a point to 58%.
The Penguins have struggled mightily to keep the puck out of their net, allowing 3.47 goals per game. That’s a Bottom-10 rate.
They have also played at a Top-10 pace in terms of total 5-on-5 shots, creating a good game environment for a minute-muncher like Sanderson to flourish.
Ottawa has generated more expected goals with Sanderson on the ice than any other player since he returned to the lineup.
He’s helping tilt the ice and create a lot of opportunities, which should lead to production in a favorable matchup.
Senators vs Penguins goal scorer: Dylan Cozens
Play to 34%.
Cozens has generated 23 shot attempts over four games riding shotgun with Stutzle on the top line.
Stutzle is an elite playmaker and leads the Senators in assists by five. Cozens skating with him each shift – at 5-on-5 as well as on the power play – makes him much more of a threat to score.
Pittsburgh is 24th in goals against and 26th in team save percentage.
- Top picks: 24.30, -10.9 units
- Combos: 10-43, -7.49 units
Senators vs Penguins odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Moneyline: Senators 55% | Penguins 46%
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (49%) | Under 6.5 (52%)
- Spread: Senators -1.5 (33%) | Penguins +1.5 (68%)
For the full slate of NHL matchups, check out our NHL odds board!
Senators vs Penguins trend
Pittsburgh has only covered the Puck Line in seven of their last 20 home games (-8.80 units, -32% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends.
How to watch Senators vs Penguins
| Location | PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh |
| Date | Saturday, Nov. 14, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | SN1, ESPN+ |
Senators vs Penguins latest injuries
Check out our NHL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
