Can Toronto actually win a game during their homestand? One thing I do know for sure, there will be goals, so my Oilers vs. Maple Leafs prediction focuses on the total.
The Edmonton Oilers are 59% favorites at Novig as the Toronto Maple Leafs try to salvage one win in their last six games.
Tap into my NHL picks for Saturday, Nov. 14, and let's build that bankroll.
Oilers vs Maple Leafs prediction: Over 6.5
The math here is simple: two high-powered offenses going up against subpar blue lines and even shakier goaltending. Anthony Stolarz, who's starting tonight, owns a 0.5 goals saved above expected; he'll face an Edmonton Oilers team riding a three-game winning streak and averaging four goals per game, good for third in the NHL. This matchup has all the makings of a track meet.
This is playable to 59%.
COVERS INTEL: The Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid, Vasily Podkolzin line is fifth in the NHL for expected goals - expect them to stay hot against the 28th-ranked team for expected goals against.
Oilers vs Maple Leafs combo
Easton Cowan has the speed and skill to cause Edmonton plenty of headaches; the value he brings here on the top line is still useful for us. Podkolzin brings the physicality and ability to work in the dirty areas, which should put him on the scoresheet skating on that potent top line.
With this much firepower on the ice and neither defense inspiring much confidence, this game has all the makings of an absolute track meet.
Oilers vs Maple Leafs combo
- Over 6.5
- Easton Cowan 1+ point
- Vasily Podkolzin 1+ point
Oilers vs Maple Leafs player prop: Connor McDavid 2+ points
McDavid grew up a Leafs fan, so he always brings a little more juice to the table whenever he's in town - it just means more to him. When you hear McDavid say something like that, it's terrifying, especially for Leafs fans. For a man potentially reaching 200 points this year, he's going to feast against a Toronto team that simply can't keep the puck out of the net.
Oilers vs Maple Leafs goal scorer: Auston Matthews
We are officially back on the man that has us up over three units this year in this section. The Leafs go as Auston Matthews goes, and he's a big reason as to why the power play is clicking at a 27% clip. Against a middling penalty kill for the Oilers, I'm giving Matthews a bump to hit twine at home.
He's 33rd in the NHL in shot attempts per 60, giving us some volume to work with to cash this.
- Top picks: 13-14, -0.08 units
- Combos: 9-17, +5.62 units
Oilers vs Maple Leafs odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Moneyline: Oilers 59% | Maple Leafs 43%
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (56%)| Under 6.5 (46%)
- Spread: Oilers -1.5 (39%) | Maple Leafs +1.5 (65%)
For the full slate of NHL matchups, check out our NHL odds board!
Oilers vs Maple Leafs trend
The Toroto Maple Leafs have gone over the number in two consecutive games. Find more NHL betting trends.
How to watch Oilers vs Maple Leafs
| Location | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario |
| Date | Saturday, Nov. 14, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet |
Oilers vs Maple Leafs latest injuries
Check out our NHL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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