The Winnipeg Jets started the season miserably but are suddenly one of the league's hottest teams, winning five in a row with excellent underlying metrics to boot.
I'm backing them to get another win in Chicago with my NHL moneyline picks for today's monster slate of games.
Let's dive into the full card of NHL picks for Saturday, Nov. 14.
NHL moneyline picks: Nov. 14
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Jets vs  Blackhawks |
60% |
 Red Wings vs  Lightning |
67% |
 Wild vs  Bruins |
50% |
 Panthers vs  Blues |
48% |
 Avalanche vs  Canadiens |
54% |
 Oilers vs  Maple Leafs |
43% |
 Flyers vs  Blue Jackets |
44% |
 Devils vs  Capitals |
52% |
 Senators vs  Penguins |
55% |
 Sabres vs  Stars |
56% |
 Sharks vs  Mammoth |
64% |
 Islanders vs  Ducks |
52% |
 Flames vs  Kings |
63% |
Percentages courtesy of Novig, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert NHL moneyline picks: Nov. 14
Jets vs Blackhawks pick: Jets
Are the Winnipeg Jets a wagon? They just might be! They have looked like a completely different team this month, ranking Top-5 in xGF% and goals per 60. They should run over a Chicago Blackhawks team sitting dead last in xG share.
Red Wings vs Lightning pick: Lightning
The Detroit Red Wings have dropped five games in a row and their underlyings are tailing off. I don’t see them finding their footing against the high-powered Tampa Bay Lightning, who are averaging 4.29 goals per 60 in November.
Wild vs Bruins pick: Bruins
The Boston Bruins rank Top-6 in goals, goals against, and own an 8-2 record on home soil. I'm banking on a response after an ugly showing against their biggest rivals.
Panthers vs Blues pick: Blues
Joel Hofer owns a sparkling .926 save percentage and has conceded two goals or fewer in five of his past six. He'll provide an edge between the pipes, and the St. Louis Blues have a good chance of winning the special teams battle against the league's most undisciplined team.
Avalanche vs Canadiens pick: Canadiens
The Montreal Canadiens but they have a Top-8 offense and the Colorado Avalanche are dealing with injuries to Nathan Mackinnon and Cale Makar. A high-octane game doesn't suit them as it normally would.
Oilers vs Maple Leafs pick: Oilers
The Toronto Maple Leafs rank 27th in xGF% over the past three weeks. Anthony Stolarz gives them a better chance of competing than Sergei Bobrovsky but Edmonton's starpower will still be too much to handle.
Flyers vs Blue Jackets pick: Flyers
The Philadelphia Flyers were a trainwreck out of the gate. While their offense is still rather stagnant, they are Top-10 in shot and xG suppression at 5-on-5 over the past 10 games. I’ll trust the defense to smother the low-scoring Columbus Blue Jackets.
Devils vs Capitals pick: Devils
The New Jersey Devils are 6-0 with Connor Hellebuyck between the pipes. Combine high-end goaltending with the seventh-ranked scoring offense and the Devils are a tough team to beat.
Senators vs Penguins pick: Senators
The Ottawa Senators are third in score-adjusted xGF% at 5-on-5 in November and have beaten quality teams like the Mammoth and Avalanche.
The Pittsburgh Penguins can’t keep the puck out of their net and rank 22nd in xGF% over their last 10 games. Not ideal.
Sabres vs Stars pick: Stars
The Dallas Stars have played once since last Saturday and they were completely embarrassed on home soil by a division rival. Elite at limiting shots, goals, and killing penalties, I expect they’ll get right back on track against the Buffalo Sabres, who are playing their third game in four nights.
Sharks vs Mammoth pick: Mammoth
Only the Hurricanes and Senators have controlled a larger xG share than the Utah Mammoth over the past three weeks. They are dealing with some injuries but are still likely to take care of business against the freefalling San Jose Sharks.
Islanders vs Ducks pick: Ducks
The Anaheim Ducks are one of the league's best offenses and now Troy Terry is back in the mix. The New York Islanders have allowed 5+ goals in three of their last four against Top-10 scoring offenses. They'll struggle to keep up.
Flames vs Kings pick: Kings
The Los Angeles Kings have really been hurt by injuries this season. Kevin Fiala and Mats Zuccarello are back and should infuse some much-needed secondary offense behind the top line, helping the Kings translate a strong process into results.
Today's NHL moneyline combo
Stars moneyline
Ducks moneyline
Kings moneyline
I'm backing three Western Conference home favorites with stronger 5-on-5 profiles – at least of late – to rebound after losing their last games.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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