Hurricanes vs Bruins Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Target McAvoy's Shot Total in Beantown

A pair of NHL heavyweights go head-to-head in a potential Eastern Conference Final matchup on Wednesday, as the Carolina Hurricanes visit the Boston Bruins at TD Garden.

Carolina and Boston have both exploded out of the holiday break and continue to hang among the betting favorites in the Stanley Cup odds. The Bruins have won five straight and haven’t lost in regulation in nine games, while the Hurricanes enter with an active 3-2-1 stretch that was preceded by their own five-game winning streak.

Boston is a home favorite in the NHL odds for Wednesday’s meeting, and our breakdown, free NHL picks, and NHL player props are the perfect complement for the tape-measuring matchup for Hurricanes vs. Bruins.

Hurricanes vs Bruins odds

Hurricanes vs Bruins predictions

The Boston Bruins have been the kings of puck luck during their 10-1-3 surge out of the holiday break. They sport the second-highest team shooting percentage (12.03) and seventh-highest team save percentage (.931) at five-on-five for a league-best 105.1 PDO. For perspective, during their historic regular season last year, the Bruins recorded a league-best 103.6 PDO at 5-on-5, with the Islanders slotting in second at 101.5.

Anyway you slice it, Boston is due for statistical correction, but I’m just not sure the negative regression is coming against the Carolina Hurricanes on Wednesday. The Hurricanes are just 12-10-1 on the road, while the Bruins have steamrolled all visitors with a 16-3-3 home record.

Additionally, I don’t trust the Carolina goaltending. Veteran Antti Raanta ranks last in SV% (.866) and goals saved above average per 60 minutes (-0.90) among NHL regulars this season, while backup Spencer Martin was just picked up on waivers and has struggled across his 51 career appearances.

I also downgrade the Carolina attack with Andrei Svechnikov (upper body) out of action. He ranks second in goals and points per 60 on the team over the past three years, and Carolina sports an underwhelming 7-7-2 record with him on the shelf this season.

As a result of the uncertainty in how this game is going to play out, I’m turning to the props markets for my best bet.

Bruins defenseman Charlie McAvoy has shown an uptick in shot volume recently, and his shots (5.06) and attempts (10.54) per 60 at TD Garden have been higher than his respective 4.48 and 9.19 marks on the road for the year. McAvoy has cleared this 1.5-shot total in eight consecutive games while totaling 22 shots on 33 attempts. Additionally, he’s registered two shots or more in 11 of his 18 home games for the season.

While Carolina suppresses the possession and shooting metrics of its opponents, it isn’t as pronounced on the road. The Hurricanes allow 3.6 more shots per game on the highway, and their 5-on-5 Corsi For percentage drops by 4.1%.

My best bet: Charlie McAvoy Over 1.5 shots (-124 at BetRivers)

Hurricanes vs Bruins same-game parlay

Hurricanes 3-way moneyline

McAvoy Over 1.5 shots

Martin Necas Over 2.5 shots

+926 at FanDuel

Because I’m anticipating the Bruins cooling off with a decline in their 5-on-5 shooting percentage and save percentage, taking a flier on the Hurricanes winning in regulation gives this SGP some long odds. 

I highlighted my Carolina concerns, but the Hurricanes are still an elite team and rank second in my offense ratings and third in defense. Carolina also paces the NHL in Corsi For percentage (59.8%) and is third in expected goals percentage (55.9%) at 5-on-5, with a third-ranked 27.0 power-play percentage and fifth-ranked 83.3 penalty-kill percentage.

Turning to the final leg of my SGP, Carolina winger Martin Necas has registered a team-high 11 shots and 17 attempts over the past two games since returning from an upper-body injury.

I’m also expecting him to see soft matchups on Wednesday. Carolina leans on centers Sebastian Aho and Jordan Staal to play against Boston’s top players as much as possible, and Necas’ uptick in shot volume aligns with him skating on a new-look line alongside Jack Drury and Stefan Noesen.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Hurricanes vs Bruins moneyline and Over/Under analysis

There hasn’t been notable movement in the moneyline for this game. Pinnacle opened with Boston priced at -138 and Carolina at +122, and the two teams are respectively at -135 and +122 as of Wednesday afternoon.

There were minor adjustments along the way, but nothing of significance. Additionally, bet365 has only made a single five-point adjustment as of Wednesday morning.

The total for this game is a different story. There isn't a consensus number with 5.5 and 6.0 totals available, and there has been line movement to the Over 6.0 at Pinnacle and bet365. FanDuel has 5.5 available, with the Over carrying a -134 vig.

Hurricanes vs Bruins betting trend to know

Carolina has won six of its past seven games on the road. Find more NHL betting trends for Hurricanes vs. Bruins.

Hurricanes vs Bruins game info

Hurricanes vs Bruins latest injuries

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic