The Oklahoma City Thunder (-9.5) will look to continue their undefeated start as they host the Phoenix Suns on Monday night.
Oklahoma City's defense has been on point this season, and that has me backing the Under in my Suns vs. Thunder prediction below.
Read on to get all my free NBA picks for Monday, Oct. 26.
TOP PICK
Suns vs Thunder prediction: Under 221.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder have been outstanding defensively to start the year, allowing 96.3 ppg in their 3-0 start. Opponents have an effective field goal percentage of just 47.1% against Oklahoma City to start the season. Combined with a slow pace of play, that's led the Thunder to hit the Under in each of their three games.
The Phoenix Suns aren't likely to change those trends. They've been mediocre on offense, ranking 18th in offensive efficiency to start the season (106.6), and are averaging only 107.0 ppg themselves. In fact, these are two of the four lowest-scoring teams in the NBA right now.
We're unlikely to see either team get above 110 points tonight, and it's almost certain that we won't see both teams get over that number. I'm backing the Under at totals down to 220.5 points.
COVERS INTEL: Oklahoma City ranks last in the NBA in pace this season, using just 85.2 possessions per game.
Suns vs Thunder combo
Even with a low-scoring game on tap, I still like the Thunder to cover tonight. Oklahoma City has covered in two of its first three games and has two double-digit wins, including victories over the Denver Nuggets and San Antonio Spurs. If those two teams struggled to keep it close, I don't see the Suns staying in this game into the fourth quarter.
I'll also take Chet Holmgren to pick up at least two blocks tonight. Holmgren has averaged three blocks per game to start the season, picking up four against both the Nuggets and Spurs. Holmgren has blocked 2.2 shots per game for his career, and he's a great pick to hit two rejections tonight.
Suns vs Thunder combo
- Under 221.5
- Thunder -9.5
- Chet Holmgren 2+ blocks
Suns vs Thunder player props
Suns player prop: Devin Booker 6+ assists
Devin Booker has averaged at least 6.0 assists per game over each of his last three seasons in Phoenix, and I expect him to continue to be the primary playmaker for the Suns this season. While he got off to a slow start in the season opener, he put up 43 points and seven assists against the Golden State Warriors in a win on Sunday.
Booker won't be averaging 40+ points a game, but his assist numbers should hold up all season. Even in what will be a lower-scoring game, I like Booker to pick up as least six assists at up to 55%.
Thunder player prop: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has become one of the most reliable scorers in the NBA over the past four years, averaging at least 30.1 ppg in each of those campaigns.
SGA has continued to show his scoring prowess to start the year, pouring in 32+ points in two of his first three games. He's averaging 24 shot attempts per game, and hasn't even gotten to the line much yet by his standards, averaging 4.7 free throws a night.
I'm trading Gilgeous-Alexander to get 30+ points tonight at up to 65%.
- Top picks: 2-1, +0.93 units
- Combos: 0-3, -3.00 units
Suns vs Thunder odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Suns +9.5 | Thunder -9.5
- Over/Under: Over 221.5 | Under 221.5
- Moneyline: Suns 22% | Thunder 79%
For the full slate of NBA matchups, check out our NBA odds board!
Suns vs Thunder trend
The Under is 3-0 in Thunder games this season. Find more NBA betting trends.
How to watch Suns vs Thunder
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Monday, Oct. 26, 2026 |
| Tip off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBA League Pass |
Suns vs Thunder latest injuries
Check out our NBA injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
